Contest rules
First things first:
at least for now, there are no prizes. These contests are strictly for fun and to give you a chance to compete
with your fellow footballguys. If they prove popular, we may
start offering subscriptions or other small prizes.
The rules
Each contest consists of a certain number of propositions. For example, "Buffalo will beat Houston" could be a proposition.
"Larry Fitzgerald will have 8 or more receptions this week" could be a proposition.
For each proposition, your job is to pick a number between zero and 100 according to how likely you think that proposition is.
So if you think Buffalo is almost sure to beat Houston, you might enter 90. If you think Buffalo will probably lose, you might
enter 20 or 25. If you're on the fence, you might enter something like 45 or 50 or 55.
The scoring works as follows:
- Every contestant will start with a fixed number of points. Usually something like 10,000 or a million or something.
- For each proposition, if it ends up happening (e.g. if Buffalo does beat Houston), then your score will be multiplied by (your guess)/100.
If it ends up not happening, your score will be multiplied by (100 - your guess)/100.
EXAMPLE: if you guess 30, then your score will be multiplied by 0.30 if the thing happens, and 0.70 if it doesn't.
EXAMPLE: if you guess 95, then your score will be multiplied by 0.95 if the thing happens, and 0.05 if it doesn't.
EXAMPLE: if you guess 100, then your score will be multiplied by 1.00 if the thing happens, and 0.00 if it doesn't.
- After all the propositions have been resolved one way or the other, whoever has the most points is the winner.
An example will be helpful.
Consider a contest in which you start with 10,000 points, and suppose there are three propositions:
- Miami will beat the Jets
- Arizona will score at least 24 points this week
- Michael Turner will rush for at least 100 yards this week
And suppose you enter the following guesses:
- Miami will beat the Jets - 80
- Arizona will score at least 24 points this week - 35
- Michael Turner will rush for at least 100 yards this week - 70
Now suppose that Miami beats the Jets, that Arizona scores 17 points, and that Turner rushes for only 60 yards. In that case, you'll get
a .80 multiplier from the Jets game, a .65 multiplier from the Cardinals game, and a .30 from the Turner effort, so your score would be:
10,000 * .80 * .65 * .30 = 1560
So you get more points for being more confident, as long as your confidence is justified. Note that if your guess is 50, then your multiplier is .5 regardless of whether the
proposition happens or not, so guessing 50 is equivalent to passing on the question.
Please note that guesses of zero and 100 are very, very, very risky. If you guess 0 or 100 and are wrong, then your score for the entire contest
will be zero. This is because of the multiplicative scoring system. Anything times zero is zero.
