Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
A 2ND GEAR FOR GERHART?
After four seasons as Adrian Peterson's backup, Toby Gerhart finds a new lease on life with the rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville signed Gerhart to a 3-year, $10.5mm contract with $4.5mm guaranteed. While his contract certainly isn't indicative of a top-tier franchise pay day, it was a meaningful commitment for a team that finished 31st in rushing yards and yards per attempt last year (and dead last -- 32nd -- in points scored). Second-year head coach Gus Bradley is desperate to find an identity built around a ball control offense and an attacking defense, similar to what Bradley experience in his time as Seattle's defensive coordinator.
UNQUESTIONABLE OPPORTUNITY
I'm fond of saying that fantasy success is when a player combines ABILITY and OPPORTUNITY. For the first time in Gerhart's career, his opportunity is plentiful.
- An offense in need -- As we've already noted, the Jaguars need an offensive identity after finishing dead last in points and 2nd to last in rushing last year. The Jaguars have made it clear Gerhart is a vital piece of their rebuilding effort
- No competition for carries -- The Jaguars let all-time franchise leader Maurice Jones-Drew leave (he's now in Oakland), and didn't target the RB position in the NFL draft. Entering training camp, the other RBs on the Jaguars roster are Jordan Todman, Storm Johnson, Terrance Cobb and Beau Blankenship. Gerhart will be in line for a monster workload barring injury
- A passing attack that's not ready for prime time -- Chad Henne isn't a world beater. Rookie Blake Bortles may be, but it's unreasonable to expect Bortles to work miracles in his rookie season. The Jaguars have high hopes for rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, but their rookie statuses argue for modest 2014 campaigns. Cecil Shorts is talented, but is miscast as the WR1 and ideally projects as a complementary option once the Jaguars roster is better stocked. The Jaguars only hope of staying competitive this year is with a reliable running game
WHY SHOULD WE HAVE CONFIDENCE IN GERHART'S ABILITIES?
The opportunity is wide open, but does Gerhart have the requisite abilities to become a workhorse? In four seasons, Gerhart hasn't been asked to do a lot since he had the good fortune of apprenticing behind the league's best runner in Adrian Peterson.
- 61 games
- 276 carries
- 1,305 yards rushing (4.7 yards per rush)
- 5 touchdowns
- 77 receptions
- 600 receiving yards
- 3 receiving touchdowns
Rank | First | Last | YRs | RSH | RSHYD | YD/RSH | RSHTD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jamaal | Charles | 2010--2013 | 421 | 2571 | 6.11 | 19 |
2 | LeGarrette | Blount | 2010--2013 | 336 | 1811 | 5.39 | 14 |
3 | Darren | Sproles | 2010--2013 | 109 | 582 | 5.34 | 1 |
4 | Kendall | Hunter | 2011--2013 | 130 | 671 | 5.16 | 2 |
5 | Brandon | Jacobs | 2010--2013 | 202 | 1041 | 5.15 | 12 |
6 | Toby | Gerhart | 2010--2013 | 129 | 656 | 5.09 | 4 |
7 | Alfred | Morris | 2012--2013 | 358 | 1754 | 4.90 | 15 |
8 | Darren | McFadden | 2010--2013 | 357 | 1744 | 4.89 | 6 |
9 | Adrian | Peterson | 2010--2013 | 611 | 2966 | 4.85 | 21 |
10 | Tim | Hightower | 2010--2011 | 145 | 703 | 4.85 | 4 |
QUESTIONS WORTH ASKING
In spite of my belief that Gerhart will be given a heavy workload as a 3-down back, there are a number of unanswered questions.
- Goal-line opportunities and effectiveness -- The Jaguars need to make a quantum leap forward in order to provide Gerhart with enough goal-line opportunities to make fantasy owners smile. The bad news is in four seasons, Toby Gerhart only received five goal-line carries. That's far too small a sample size to make any conclusions. The good news is Gerhart converted three of those five (60%) carries for touchdowns.
- Effectiveness of the offensive line -- The Jaguars offensive line was horrendous last season, due to a lack of depth and injury to significant contributors. This year there's hope for improvement as last year's top pick Luke Joeckel returns and free agent bruiser Zane Beadles helps stabilize the left side. There are still questions on the right side of the line, and it will take career seasons from several journeyman for this unit to rate much higher than league average
- Play-calling -- OC Jedd Fisch didn't take a lot of heat for last year's 32nd place finish, but that's a far cry from saying we have any evidence he's a top notch NFL play-caller. Fisch was given the benefit of the doubt last year, but he'll be held to a higher standard in 2014 as fan and ownership expectations rise
POSITIVES
- Gerhart is a bruising (6'0", 231 lbs.) runner with good speed (4.51 40-yard dash) and a clean bill of health
- In limited work, Gerhart was highly effective in Minnesota as both a receiver and as an inside runner against base defenses
- The Jaguars are planning to build the offense around the 5th year veteran
- The Jaguars schedule looks particularly compelling this year in terms of opposing run defenses faced
NEGATIVES
- The Jaguars offensive line was among the leagues' worst last year, and OC Jedd Fisch still has much to prove as an NFL play-caller
- Opposing teams likely won't be worrying about the Jaguars passing game unless rookie Blake Bortles is an immediate star
- Gerhart hasn't shown an ability to be an effective volume runner, and has been given only a handful of goal-line carries in four seasons
FINAL THOUGHTS
I've seen some terrible analysis, bordering on racist, comparing Toby Gerhart to Tommy Vardell and Mike Alstott. Look, not all white running backs are cut from the same cloth, and it's silly in today's day and age that we even have to say as much. If you're looking for a comp on Gerhart, the best modern example is Michael Turner. Turner ran effectively in very limited action behind LaDainian Tomlinson -- then the NFL's top runner. Turner was a big back with a high yards-per-rush, and signed with the Atlanta Falcons as the starter after years behind Turner in San Diego. Many questioned whether Turner's eye-popping YPC as a part-timer would translate into his new role. Needless to say, Turner was an impact starter for the Falcons and flourished for a handful of years. Turner and Gerhart have similar builds, measurables, and pedigrees. Gerhart has good, not great speed but is certainly capable of getting to the next level. He's an excellent pass blocker (vital when breaking in a rookie quarterback) and an even better outlet receiver. He's been effective against base defenses and, while we haven't seen him used as a goal-line runner, he's been good in a very small sample size (3 TDs out of 5 carries). When you look at the Jaguars roster, there's literally no other RB that poses a credible threat for touches. In an NFL where committees are commonplace, Gerhart has a wide open berth for 300+ touches if he stays healthy. If Gerhart's ADP remains this low, he's among a handful of players you MUST TARGET. Draft accordingly.
PROJECTIONS
Toby Gerhart Projections
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | MIN | 16 | 109 | 531 | 1 | 28 | 23 | 190 | 3 | |
2012 | MIN | 16 | 50 | 169 | 1 | 27 | 20 | 155 | 0 | |
2013 | MIN | 14 | 36 | 283 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 88 | 0 | 1 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 210 | 861 | 6 | 36 | 263 | 1 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 225 | 960 | 7 | 36 | 280 | 1 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 245 | 950 | 7 | 45 | 355 | 1 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 220 | 762 | 7 | 35 | 225 | 1 | 3 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Kyle Hall of Dynasty Football Warehouse believes Gerhart will be a workhorse:
Toby Gerhart was a virtual beast in the final two years of his college campaign. He bulldozed through and past defenders left and right. During his junior collegiate season he finished with 210 carries for 1136 yards rushing and 15 touchdowns. He then topped that with a senior outing in which he handled 343 carries for 1871 yards and 28 end zone visits. In essence, the Jacksonville offeason acquisition showed he could handle a heavy workload quite well. Gerhart finished his collegiate career with 3522 total rushing yards while still having a season of eligibility remaining. In addition to winning numerous awards following his senior year at Stanford he also finished second in the Heisman voting behind Mark Ingram.
ProFootballFocus's Patrick Thorman notes that Gerhart's rising ADP bears closer scrutiny:
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Gerhart’s average draft position (ADP) on March 11th was early in the 14th round (14.02). One week later it had shot up to 8.07. Two months after he signed he had an ADP of 5.07, and that’s where it stayed until the end of May. Since then Gerhart’s ADP resumed ascending to its present perch at the beginning of the fourth round (4.02). It is still rising.
At what point does Gerhart go from a screaming bargain to fairly priced, or even too expensive? Most current sentiment is still squarely in the “bargain” camp, although with more casual fantasy players poised to end their off seasons we are rapidly approaching a junction in the track.
Taking Gerhart in the middle rounds was a no-brainer, with the only issue being how late he could be snuck onto rosters before opponents sniped him. His projected opportunity dictated the selection, and his relatively indeterminate talent level supported it even among those who weren’t fervent believers in his skill set.
Now that he’s being drafted in a more exclusive neighborhood, with (depending on scoring format) proven fantasy producers like Alfred Morris, Ryan Mathews, and Reggie Bush, we need to take a more critical look at what ponying up for Gerhart buys us.