Fantasy owners are excited about Rashad Jennings, and his ADP has been steadily climbing into the 4th round as this article goes to press. While I can certainly understand how someone might get excited by Jennings from a certain vantage, I would caution getting overzealous. He certainly has the potential to finish as a high upside fantasy RB2, but I believe the risks are high enough to draft him ONLY if he's your RB3 or lower. If you're taking him as your RB2, recognize that the risks are equal to or greater than the potential rewards.
THE GOOD
After four forgettable seasons in Jacksonville, Rashad Jennings successfully bet on himself with a one-year deal in Oakland. In spite of the Raiders overall struggled, Jennings performed admirably and outplayed Darren McFadden in every capacity.
- 163 rushes
- 733 yards
- 4.5 yards per rush
- 6 rushing TDs
- 36 receptions
- 292 yards receiving
- Fantasy RB21 ranking
THE BAD
Jennings had a surprisingly strong 2013 playing for an awful Oakland Raiders team. Yet his success was in a part-time role. Jennings is 29 years old and has never played a full season. He's never had more than last year's 163 carries and never finished as a top 20 fantasy RB. For all of Jennings' 'success' last year, it's important to note he was an ineffective pass blocker and now joins a team with a franchise QB, a preference for 3-WR sets and a suspect offensive line. Can Jennings protect Manning and, if not, will he stay on the field? Many assert Jennings has a clear path to carries, but does a 29-year old journeyman on his third team really profile as someone we can confidently put ahead of the pack? Even if you discount Peyton Hillis (I would) and think David Wilson won't be medically cleared (less certain), you CANNOT forget about rookie Andre Williams. Williams may have his deficiencies (most notably as a pass catcher), but he's a bruiser (5'11", 230 lbs.) who dominated in his final year in college (2,177 yards and 18 touchdowns). There's no reason to think he couldn't produce in McAdoo's system, and could quickly relegate Jennings to the 3rd down role he's best suited. UPDATE (7/23/14): David Wilson was cleared to participate in training camp -- further weakening Jennings' position as a fantasy commodity.
THE UGLY
The Giants fielded one of the league's worst offenses last year (28th in points scored and yards, 30th in yards per rush) and yet return most of last year's starters. Eli Manning had a miserable season and is on a four-year decline. Can someone that struggles to complete 60% of his passes in today's NFL excel in Ben McAdoo's timing-based West Coast offense? I'm not so sure. More importantly, did the Giants do enough in the offseason to improve one of the league's five worst offensive lines?
POSITIVES
- Jennings acquitted himself reasonably well last year as a part-time starter for a poor Raiders unit
- The Giants appear to have a need for a feature runner, and Jennings fits the bill better than anyone on the roster outside of rookie Andre Williams -- and typically HC Tom Coughlin is reluctant to trust rookies
- New OC Ben McAdoo promises an uptempo (the Giants were 27th in plays from scrimmage last year) offense
NEGATIVES
- The Giants offense was abysmal last year and the personnel hasn't improved dramatically, particularly at key positions including QB and the offensive line
- Jennings was an afterthought in four years in Jacksonville, could only muster a one-year deal last season, and then wasn't viewed as a priority by the Raiders
- David Wilson was cleared for training camp
- Andre Williams, if he can pass block, could easily force a committee approach if not become the work horse by mid-season
FINAL THOUGHTS
It's important to keep today's NFL in context. Just a few years ago, the prospect of a running back getting 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 6-8 touchdowns wasn't something that would've titillated fantasy owners. Today's NFL is a different beast though. Those numbers in today's pass happy world would land a RB on the fringe of RB2 territory. In that vein it's easy to understand how one could become enamored with Rashad Jennings. If you look at last year as his "first chance" and convince yourself that he deserved better in Jacksonville, you can convince yourself he's set for his first major workload. But that would be revisionist history. In 2012 Jennings got six starts in Jacksonville and was horrendous. He averaged 2.8 yards per rush and scored only two touchdowns. In the five years of Jennings career (2009-2013), he ranks just 126th in yards per carry on 1st down (base defenses). He's only scored 8 touchdowns in 20 goal-line carries. And he's graded out as an average, at best, pass protector. That's to say nothing of the injuries which have kept him from playing an entire season in five tries. Does a 29-year old journeyman with half a good season, a long injury history and playing behind a subpar offensive line sound like the kind of RB you want to use a 3rd or 4th round draft pick on? If so, have at it. I'll be stockpiling elite WR/RB talent with far better resumes and wishing you luck.
PROJECTIONS
Rashad Jennings Projections
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | JAX | 10 | 101 | 283 | 2 | 26 | 19 | 130 | 0 | |
2013 | OAK | 15 | 163 | 733 | 6 | 47 | 36 | 292 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 195 | 800 | 7 | 43 | 323 | 2 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 205 | 870 | 8 | 40 | 300 | 0 | 1 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 175 | 715 | 6 | 40 | 320 | 1 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 185 | 803 | 5 | 42 | 323 | 1 | 3 |
THOUGHTS FROM THE WEB
Jake Ciely disagrees with my take, and thinks we're overlooking Rashad Jennings:
Jennings has also been one of the best rushers after contact. Last year, Jennings ranked third best in yards after contact with at least 150 attempts at 2.80. Chris Ivory (3.01) and Adrian Peterson (2.97) were No. 1 and 2. It wasn't a one-year blip either. Jennings is averaging 2.73 yards after contact for his career. That would regularly rank him among or just outside the Top 10.
Footballguys' own Andy Hicks agrees that Jennings is someone to avoid at his current ADP:
First, running back Rashad Jennings. His draft position is a very high price to pay for a guy with a half year career at the age of 29 at a position with high turnover. Until Week 9 of the 2013 season when he recorded 15 carries for 102 yards with a touchdown and 7 receptions for 74 yards, Jennings was a career underachiever who managed to avoid success in the NFL by getting injured or underwhelming whenever he was put in a position to start. He finally hit in the last half of 2013 with the Oakland Raiders. What did he do then? Moved to his 3rd team in 3 years where they have a wildcard in David Wilson still around and they promptly drafted Andre Williams with the 112th overall pick of the 2014 draft. Will Jennings continue on where he left with the Raiders or will he do what he's done for the first 5 1/2 years of his career? At the price of a 3rd or early 4th round pick I'd rather look anywhere else. What is a realistic upside for Jennings? Can he realistic record the 200+ carries he needs to achieve his ADP? At best Jennings gets close to his ADP and gets a high RB2 slot, the downside is much worse and more likely.