THE PERFECT QB2
Philip Rivers is the PERFECT fantasy QB2 to target this year. In 12-team leagues I expect Rivers will end up on the majority of my rosters, and if he doesn't it's only because someone else in the league was smart enough to recognize Rivers' confluence of value and draft position. Simply put, whether you like to wait on your starting quarterback or take one of the top options in the first few rounds, Rivers should be on your short list in the 9th/10th round as your second signal caller.
A WOLF (QB1) IN SHEEP'S (QB2) CLOTHING
For reasons not entirely explainable, Philip Rivers fell from grace in 2012. Coming off a QB9 finish in 2011, Rivers was drafted 11th among QBs in 2012 drafts but finished as the 20th ranked quarterback.
- 338 completions
- 527 attempts
- 64.1% completion rate
- 3,607 yards passing
- 26 TD passes
- 15 INTs
- QB20 ranking
With an uncertain offensive line, new coaches and a set of receivers that were either injury risks (e.g., Floyd, Alexander) or unproven (e.g., Brown, Allen), fantasy owners treated Rivers like kryptonite in last year's drafts -- he was the 24th quarterback off the board, on average. What a foolish overreaction that turned out to be over one disappointing season.
- 378 completions
- 544 attempts
- 69.5% completion rate
- 4,478 yards passing
- 32 TD passes
- 11 INTs
- QB5 ranking
Rivers was THE BEST value at the quarterback position, finishing as QB5 (a solid, middle-of-the-road fantasy QB1) in spite of being drafted as one of the last backups, on average. This year, fantasy owners are betting Rivers will finish closer to a middling QB2 than repeat last year's heroics.
STABILITY ARGUES FOR UPSIDE
- Head coach Mike McCoy is in his second season
- Frank Reich takes over as offensive coordinator, but was on staff as the QB coach in 2013
- Keenan Allen returns as the #1 receiver
- Malcom Floyd returns from injury as the #2 receiver
- Antonio Gates and Ladarius Green both return as key targets at the TE position
- Ryan Mathews returns as the lead back
- Danny Woodhead returns as the 3rd down back (76 receptions in 2013)
- The core of the offensive line returns
HISTORY ARGUES FOR UPSIDE
You would think Rivers' 2012 season was endemic of a downward spiral for the 32-year old veteran. Yet, it was more OUTLIER than TREND INDICATOR. Rivers was a fantasy QB1 in each of the prior four seasons. Let me reiterate that point, Philip Rivers finished as a QB1 in FOUR CONSECUTIVE SEASONS prior to the 2012 debacle, and then bounced back to QB1 territory in 2013.
- 2008 -- 4,009 yards, 34 TDs, 11 INTs -- QB5
- 2009 -- 4,245 yards, 28 TDs, 9 INTs -- QB9
- 2010 -- 4,710 yards, 30 TDs, 13 INTs -- QB4
- 2011 -- 4,624 yards, 27 TDs, 20 INTs -- QB9
- 2012 -- 3,607 yards, 26 TDs, 15 INTs -- QB20
- 2013 -- 4,478 yards, 32 TDs, 11 INTs -- QB5
Which one of these seasons screams outlier?
POSITIVES
- Rivers is a career 64.4% passer and his 7.9 yards per attempt ranks near the top of active passers
- Rivers flourished in Mike McCoy's system last year, and benefits from continuity at the skill players this year
- He can regularly be had as your fantasy QB2 in spite of delivering fantasy QB1 numbers in five of the last six seasons
NEGATIVES
- The Chargers aren't pass happy, and Rivers isn't going to benefit from sheer volume in the way Matthew Stafford does
- Outside of Keenan Allen, the receiver/tight end crew are lacking proven, top-tier playmakers
- Ken Whisenhunt took the Titans head coaching vacancy, leaving Frank Reich to call plays for the first time in his NFL coaching career
FINAL THOUGHTS
How many quarterbacks have finished in the Top 10 at least five of the last six years? Not Tony Romo (4 times). Not Tom Brady (4 times). Not Matt Ryan (4 times). Not Ben Roethlisberger (Twice).
The list is short and distinguished.
- Drew Brees (6-of-6)
- Peyton Manning (5-of-6)
- Aaron Rodgers (5-of-6)
- Philip Rivers (5-of-6)
Let that sink in for a minute. Manning, Rodgers and Brees are the consensus top 3 fantasy quarterbacks and are routinely being drafted in the first three rounds of 12-team leagues. Yet Rivers has matched them in consistent QB1 productivity yet is being drafted at the tail end of the 9th round as the 15th quarterback off the board. It's not like Rivers' situation has materially worsened. He returns the entirety of last year's roster that garnered him (another) top 5 finish. His coaches and system remain the same. And Rivers is healthy. So why isn't there more love for the former NC Stater? WHO CARES? It's rare when a clear arbitrage opportunity is so pervasive. Don't worry about why your league is discounting Rivers and instead use it to your advantage. You can ROUTINELY roster Rivers as your QB2 when he has as good a chance as finishing as a QB1 as anyone at the position. History says trust Rivers -- and I'll be doing that in every draft possible this year. You should do the same.
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | SD | 16 | 366 | 582 | 4624 | 27 | 20 | 26 | 36 | 1 | |
2012 | SD | 16 | 338 | 527 | 3607 | 26 | 15 | 27 | 40 | 0 | |
2013 | SD | 16 | 378 | 544 | 4478 | 32 | 11 | 28 | 72 | 0 | 2 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 16 | 369 | 560 | 4245 | 28 | 14 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 3 |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 354 | 535 | 4300 | 28 | 15 | 25 | 40 | 0 | 4 |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 390 | 580 | 4500 | 29 | 15 | 25 | 45 | 0 | 3 |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 365 | 556 | 4306 | 26 | 15 | 27 | 72 | 1 | 1 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Jim Sannes of Numberfire thinks Philip Rivers deserves more love:
In the end, I'm not trying to argue that Rivers is going to be a drop-dead stud in 2014. I just don't think the man gets enough credit for how good he actually is. For real football, Rivers should pick up where he left off last year and keep helping Keenan Allen make it rain on the league. In fantasy, he's a great guy to look at if you subscribe to the late-round quarterback theory. Don't let the pre-season rankings fool you; brudduh is a great second-tier signal-caller that has earned a figurative hug from all of us.
Our own Sigmund Bloom slots Rivers as a low QB1 in his pre-camp tiers:
Last year we had high ceiling Rivers in the first half of the season and low ceiling Rivers in the second half. He will get healthier and more talented young weapons this year, and there is some talk that new offensive coordinator Frank Reich will introduce more uptempo attack mode to the Chargers. Rivers could be a great value in hindsight, and he’s a suitable QB1 if you want to outwait the competition at QB.