AN ALL-TIME GREAT DELIVERS ALL-TIME GREATNESS
Peyton Manning's legacy will be debated for years to come, but no one in their right mind will debate Manning's statistical achievements. He could very well finish his career with a bevy of all-time records.
- #2 All-time Completions -- 5,532 (behind Brett Favre's 6,300)
- #2 All-time Passing Yards -- 64,964 (Favre has 71,838)
- #2 All-time Passing Touchdowns -- 491 (Favre has 508)
Realistically, Manning is two seasons away from overtaking the passing yards mark, and will break the TD mark in 2014. From a fantasy football perspective, Manning has been a stalwart -- in fact, he may be the most accomplished fantasy passer of all-time.
- 1998 -- QB9
- 1999 -- QB4
- 2000 -- QB4
- 2001 -- QB6
- 2002 -- QB4
- 2003 -- QB2
- 2004 -- QB2
- 2005 -- QB3
- 2006 -- QB1
- 2007 -- QB3
- 2008 -- QB6
- 2009 -- QB6
- 2010 -- QB5
- 2011 -- DNP
- 2012 -- QB6
- 2013 -- QB1
Think about that for a second. Manning has finished as a fantasy QB1 in all 16 of his active seasons (excluding 2011 when he missed the year with his neck injuries). As if that weren't impressive enough, Manning has finished in the Top 5 TEN TIMES. And if THAT weren't enough, Manning is coming off the single best fantasy season in NFL history.
ALL-TIME TOP QB FANTASY SEASONS
Rank | First | Last | Year | PaYds | PaTD | INTs | RuYds | RuTD | FPTs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Peyton | Manning | 2013 | 5,477 | 55 | 10 | (31) | 1 | 486.8 |
2 | Drew | Brees | 2011 | 5,476 | 46 | 14 | 86 | 1 | 458.4 |
3 | Tom | Brady | 2007 | 4,806 | 50 | 8 | 98 | 2 | 454.1 |
4 | Aaron | Rodgers | 2011 | 4,643 | 45 | 6 | 257 | 3 | 449.9 |
5 | Tom | Brady | 2011 | 5,235 | 39 | 12 | 109 | 3 | 434.7 |
6 | Daunte | Culpepper | 2004 | 4,717 | 39 | 11 | 406 | 2 | 433.5 |
7 | Dan | Marino | 1984 | 5,084 | 48 | 17 | (7) | - | 428.5 |
8 | Cam | Newton | 2011 | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 706 | 14 | 426.9 |
9 | Drew | Brees | 2013 | 5,162 | 39 | 12 | 52 | 3 | 425.3 |
10 | Steve | Young | 1998 | 4,170 | 36 | 12 | 454 | 6 | 421.9 |
11 | Drew | Brees | 2012 | 5,177 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 418.4 |
12 | Peyton | Manning | 2004 | 4,557 | 49 | 10 | 38 | - | 417.7 |
13 | Matthew | Stafford | 2011 | 5,038 | 41 | 16 | 78 | - | 407.7 |
14 | Randall | Cunningham | 1990 | 3,466 | 30 | 13 | 942 | 5 | 404.5 |
15 | Daunte | Culpepper | 2000 | 3,937 | 33 | 16 | 470 | 7 | 401.9 |
16 | Aaron | Rodgers | 2012 | 4,303 | 39 | 8 | 259 | 2 | 401.0 |
17 | Steve | Young | 1994 | 3,969 | 35 | 10 | 293 | 7 | 399.8 |
18 | Tom | Brady | 2012 | 4,827 | 34 | 8 | 32 | 4 | 396.6 |
19 | Brett | Favre | 1995 | 4,413 | 38 | 13 | 181 | 3 | 395.8 |
20 | Aaron | Rodgers | 2009 | 4,434 | 30 | 7 | 304 | 5 | 395.1 |
Manning's 2013 was so dominant (nearly 10% better than the prior best fantasy season) that a disproportionate number of fantasy leagues were won thanks to his play. But you didn't need me to tell you Peyton Manning is an all-time great; what you want to know is when does it make sense to draft Manning in 2014?
GETTING COMFORTABLE WITH DRAFTING MANNING EARLY
Few fantasy owners question whether Manning is going to be at or near the top of the QB rankings this year. Yet a great many of those same fantasy owners simply won't consider drafting Manning barring some completely illogical fall below his current average draft position. In determining whether it pays to draft Manning, we need to address a number of considerations:
- Regression from last year's monster performance
- Changes to his supporting cast
- The relative value of a top-end fantasy quarterback versus other positions
- Manning's expected draft slot
REGRESSION IS NOT A FOUR-LETTER WORD
If I hear one more fantasy analyst decry Peyton Manning's fantasy prospects because he "can never repeat last year's numbers" I'm going to lose my mind. Sure, the odds that Peyton Manning is going to match last year -- the BEST FANTASY SEASON IN NFL HISTORY -- are minimal. But how is that in any way predictive? Manning -- or any quarterback for that matter -- doesn't have to have a historic season to justify his fantasy value. Manning could lose 20% of last year's fantasy value and STILL FINISH AS THE NUMBER ONE FANTASY QB in most NFL seasons. Let's quickly look at the other top QB seasons in NFL history and how those players fared the following season:
Top 10 Fantasy QB Seasons (Prior to 2013) Compared to Year N+1
Rank | First | Last | Year | FPTs | Year N+1 | FPTs | YOY Change |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Drew | Brees | 2011 | 458.4 | 2012 | 418.4 | -8.7% |
2 | Tom | Brady | 2007 | 454.1 | 2008 | 3.8 | -99.2% |
3 | Aaron | Rodgers | 2011 | 449.9 | 2012 | 400.7 | -10.9% |
4 | Tom | Brady | 2011 | 434.7 | 2012 | 396.6 | -8.8% |
5 | Daunte | Culpepper | 2004 | 433.5 | 2005 | 110.9 | -74.4% |
6 | Dan | Marino | 1984 | 428.5 | 1985 | 303.5 | -29.2% |
7 | Cam | Newton | 2011 | 424.2 | 2012 | 379.6 | -10.5% |
8 | Steve | Young | 1998 | 421.9 | 1999 | 36.0 | -91.5% |
9 | Drew | Brees | 2012 | 418.4 | 2013 | 425.3 | 1.7% |
10 | Peyton | Manning | 2004 | 417.7 | 2005 | 293.9 | -29.6% |
Average*** | -13.7% |
*** Average of those quarterbacks who remained healthy in Year N+1 (Excludes Young, Brady's 2008 season and Culpepper).
Many analysts invoke Dan Marino as a reason to be cautious about a quarterback following a huge season. After all, his record-breaking 1984 season was followed up with a good, but not quite great, 1985. Marino's fantasy value fell nearly 30% year over year. The problem is citing Marino's 1985 regression is cherry-picking to suit your argument. In the table above, we see that most of the record-setting quarterbacks enjoyed very strong follow-up seasons. Steve Young, Tom Brady and Daunte Culpepper all suffered major injuries in their follow-up seasons. But the other quarterbacks regressed just 13.7% year over year.
Let's say Peyton Manning follows suit and regresses 14% from last year. How would that rank fantasy wise? What if he fell 20%? What if his regression DOUBLED the historical comps (28%)?
0% | 14% | 20% | 28% | |
---|---|---|---|---|
487 FPTs | 427 FPTs | 356 FPTs | 278 FPTs | |
2009 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
2010 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
2011 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
2012 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
2013 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 |
Avg Rank | 1 | 2 | 5 | 15 |
Over the last five seasons, if Manning lost 14% of his fantasy production from last year, he would still rank as the #1 fantasy QB in four of the five years. If his stats fell 20%, he would comfortably rank as a top 5 QB. Manning would have to see his production fall 2x the normal rate (i.e., a Marino Season) before his fantasy value took a meaningful tumble into non-starter territory.
HIS SUPPORTING CAST IS AS GOOD IF NOT BETTER
The Broncos lost a few pieces this offseason, most notably WR Eric Decker and RB Knowshon Moreno. Yet it's important to remember John Elway didn't make re-signing either player a priority. In Moreno's case, many NFL analysts (myself included) viewed Moreno as a byproduct of the system, and easily replaced. Denver is set to give Montee Ball the lion's share of snaps. Decker was unquestionably productive, averaging 134 targets per season with Manning, but signed for free agent riches in New York. His loss was mitigated by two additions to the WR corps: Emmanuel Sanders (free agency) and Cody Latimer (NFL draft).
- Demaryius Thomas remains atop the depth chart (and one of the three or four best receivers in football)
- Emmanuel Sanders has been turning heads and slots in as the number two
- Cody Latimer has wowed from the first snap of preseason action and could push for playing time in spite of the presence of...
- Wes Welker remains one of the surest-handed and productive slot receivers in football
- Julius Thomas emerged last year as a difference-making tight end, and remains in his prime
- Montee Ball has passed early tests (as a pass blocker and outlet receiver)
- All Pro left tackle Ryan Clady is healthy after missing the majority of 2013 with a Lisfranc injury
TOP QUARTERBACKS DELIVER VALUE
Waiting on quarterback is the most pervasive strategy among fantasy analysts, and I certainly understand the mantra. There are certainly draft scenarios where I will eschew drafting the 4th or 5th QB on my board in favor of better value at another position, believing that the marginal drop off between QB4 and QB12 pales in comparison to the equivalent drop off at running back or receiver. Yet we're not talking about passing up a middling fantasy QB1 for a high end fantasy QB2...we're talking about passing up the likely #1 overall fantasy QB. From a value-based drafting perspective, Manning was the 2nd most valuable player last year in 12-team leagues with 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE lineup requirements.
Rank | First | Last | Team | FPTs | X-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jamaal | Charles | KC | 312.1 | 182 |
2 | Peyton | Manning | DEN | 486.75 | 178 |
3 | LeSean | McCoy | PHI | 280.7 | 151 |
4 | Matt | Forte | CHI | 265.3 | 135 |
5 | Jimmy | Graham | NO | 217.5 | 124 |
6 | Josh | Gordon | CLE | 227.4 | 118 |
7 | Demaryius | Thomas | DEN | 227 | 117 |
8 | Drew | Brees | NO | 425.5 | 116 |
9 | Marshawn | Lynch | SEA | 241.3 | 111 |
10 | Calvin | Johnson | DET | 220.9 | 111 |
11 | Knowshon | Moreno | DEN | 236.7 | 107 |
12 | A.J. | Green | CIN | 208.6 | 99 |
13 | Brandon | Marshall | CHI | 201.5 | 92 |
14 | Dez | Bryant | DAL | 201.4 | 92 |
15 | Antonio | Brown | PIT | 198.95 | 89 |
16 | Eric | Decker | DEN | 194.8 | 85 |
17 | Alshon | Jeffery | CHI | 194.6 | 85 |
18 | Adrian | Peterson | MIN | 209.7 | 80 |
19 | Eddie | Lacy | GB | 209.5 | 79 |
20 | DeSean | Jackson | PHI | 187.4 | 78 |
In the last five years, the #1 fantasy QB has ranked in the top 5 of OVERALL values at the position in all but the 2012 season (where Brees' ranked 9th overall in relatively value).
MANNING'S EXPECTED DRAFT SLOT
History suggests that the #1 fantasy QB is likely to return top 5 overall value (if not top 10 in a down year), yet rarely do quarterbacks come off the board in the first round of fantasy drafts. Currently Peyton Manning is being drafted 16th overall, in the middle of the second round. Simply put, unless you expect Manning to fall well short of last year's numbers (meaning 20%+ decline), it makes all the sense in the world to draft him at or slightly above his projected draft position. In ANY league that commonly waits on quarterback, Manning slots as exceptional value anytime after the middle of the 2nd round. If he's still on the board in the 3rd round, you're doing yourself a disservice by passing on him, and giving another league mate a huge relatively advantage. If for some reason Manning falls, as he did in a few expert drafts I've done this month, into the 4th round -- it's tantamount to being handed a 14-point lead with 2 minutes left to play in the Super Bowl.
POSITIVES
- Manning is the best passer of his generation, and could quite possibly finish his career as the statistically best quarterback in history
- The Broncos are loaded with productive skill position players; Manning's success doesn't hinge on one particular player staying healthy
- In spite of his elite productivity, there is built in arbitrage value because of fantasy owner's propensity to "wait on QB" even when the stats argue otherwise
NEGATIVES
- Even though it's been two years since Manning's neck injuries, there is always the risk that another hit to that area could end his career
- Montee Ball struggled as a pass protector at times in his rookie season, and must become more consistent given the departure of Knowshon Moreno
- Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer have to continue their torrid starts in order to ensure the loss of Eric Decker doesn't sting
FINAL THOUGHTS
You didn't need me to tell you that Peyton Manning is great. In an era when hyperbole has become commonplace, and words like "best", "great" and "special" are overused to a fault, Manning is among the few NFL players worthy of such description. While it's reasonable to think Manning won't duplicate 2013's historic totals, history shows that barring injury he won't fall all nearly as much as most expect. And a 10%-15% regression still makes Manning not only the #1 fantasy QB, but someone worthy of a top 10 overall selection. If Manning is still on the board when you're drafting in the third round, you would be foolish to pass on him. And anyone that questions your choice of Manning in the second round needs to learn a lesson or two about value-based drafting.
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | DEN | 16 | 400 | 583 | 4667 | 37 | 11 | 23 | 7 | 0 | |
2013 | DEN | 16 | 450 | 659 | 5477 | 55 | 10 | 32 | -31 | 1 | 6 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 16 | 415 | 620 | 4929 | 43 | 12 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 416 | 610 | 4930 | 43 | 11 | 25 | 10 | 0 | 3 |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 440 | 640 | 5280 | 45 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 413 | 642 | 5076 | 41 | 15 | 28 | 22 | 1 | 1 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Footballguys' own Adam Harstad (Yes) and Jeff Haseley (No) debate Manning's value as a 1st round pick
Gambling on running backs and receivers certainly has a higher upside, as the top players at each position will almost certainly be much more valuable than the top quarterbacks. The problem is that most of the really good bets at those positions are long gone by the end of the first round, leaving a thinner pool with a much lower success rate. Even though his numbers are primed to regress in a big way, Peyton Manning is a very safe bet to produce a strong positional advantage over the rest of the league. There are not many- if any- other players available at the end of the first round for whom you can say the same thing.
Yahoo!'s Brad Evans agrees with me that taking a QB early makes sense, in spite of the rhetoric to the contrary
When compared to high-priced options at RB and WR, positions where replacement value is easier to come by, the evidence overwhelmingly favors grabbing a reliable quarterback early. It makes sense, even if you're a strong streaming advocate. Yes, (insert widely available QB) could shred Dallas' overly generous defense any given week, but ultra-elite passers offer week-to-week consistency, high floors and overall trustworthiness. Unpredictable waiver options typically don't (See Kirk Cousins Week 16 last year). Why count on a waivers dice roll when you can trot out Brees who scored at least 20 fantasy points in 14 of 16 games last year? Last year, 60.8 percent of Yahoo champs had Peyton on roster. The highest RB, Jamaal Charles, was on 34.8 percent of trophy-hoisting teams. Incontestably, No. 18 was a difference-maker.