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IS BEAST MODE ABOUT TO BE TAMED?
Marshawn Lynch is one of the more interesting characters in football. While not as ostensibly humorous as Clinton "Sheriff Gonna Getcha" Portis was, he does have a classic nickname (Beast Mode), an odd obsession (Skittles) and oft-uttered soundbites ("This My Son"). Far more importantly to fantasy owners though -- Marshawn Lynch is one of the leagues' few remaining workhorse running backs. In his three full seasons in Seattle, Lynch leads all NFL running backs in touches (i.e., rushes plus receptions):
Top 25 in Total Touches (Rushes+Receptions), RB, 2011-2013
Rank | First | Last | Rush | Recs | Touches |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marshawn | Lynch | 894 | 87 | 981 |
2 | Ray | Rice | 760 | 195 | 955 |
3 | Chris | Johnson | 817 | 135 | 952 |
4 | LeSean | McCoy | 786 | 154 | 940 |
5 | Adrian | Peterson | 835 | 87 | 922 |
6 | Matt | Forte | 732 | 170 | 902 |
7 | Frank | Gore | 815 | 61 | 876 |
8 | Arian | Foster | 749 | 115 | 864 |
9 | Ryan | Mathews | 690 | 115 | 805 |
10 | Reggie | Bush | 665 | 132 | 797 |
11 | Steven | Jackson | 671 | 113 | 784 |
12 | Maurice | Jones-Drew | 662 | 100 | 762 |
13 | BenJarvus | Green-Ellis | 676 | 35 | 711 |
14 | Jamaal | Charles | 555 | 111 | 666 |
15 | Shonn | Greene | 601 | 55 | 656 |
16 | DeMarco | Murray | 541 | 113 | 654 |
17 | Alfred | Morris | 611 | 20 | 631 |
18 | C.J. | Spiller | 512 | 117 | 629 |
19 | Fred | Jackson | 491 | 118 | 609 |
20 | Willis | McGahee | 553 | 46 | 599 |
21 | DeAngelo | Williams | 531 | 55 | 586 |
22 | Stevan | Ridley | 553 | 19 | 572 |
23 | Michael | Turner | 520 | 36 | 556 |
24 | Trent | Richardson | 455 | 86 | 541 |
25 | Rashard | Mendenhall | 496 | 44 | 540 |
Needless to say, having the heaviest workload in the league is a surefire way to maintain fantasy relevance. Lynch has been a bellcow and his fantasy owners have benefited from the Seahawks' commitment to the 28-year old.
- 2011 -- 1,416 yards, 13 TDs (RB5 ranking)
- 2012 -- 1,786 yards, 12 TDs (RB4 ranking)
- 2013 -- 1,571 yards, 14 TDs (RB4 ranking)
Rank | First | Last | Touches | FPTs | FPT/Touch |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Darren | Sproles | 416 | 426.3 | 1.025 |
2 | Marcel | Reece | 232 | 215.7 | 0.930 |
3 | Mike | Tolbert | 382 | 336.3 | 0.880 |
4 | Danny | Woodhead | 391 | 323.8 | 0.828 |
5 | Jamaal | Charles | 666 | 538.2 | 0.808 |
6 | Joique | Bell | 353 | 275.8 | 0.781 |
7 | Dexter | McCluster | 284 | 218.0 | 0.768 |
8 | Adrian | Peterson | 922 | 707.5 | 0.767 |
9 | LeSean | McCoy | 940 | 714.1 | 0.760 |
10 | Giovani | Bernard | 226 | 168.9 | 0.747 |
11 | Fred | Jackson | 609 | 451.0 | 0.741 |
12 | Toby | Gerhart | 250 | 183.4 | 0.734 |
13 | C.J. | Spiller | 629 | 461.4 | 0.734 |
14 | Brandon | Jacobs | 230 | 167.7 | 0.729 |
15 | Marshawn | Lynch | 981 | 710.9 | 0.725 |
16 | Donald | Brown | 395 | 283.2 | 0.717 |
17 | Ahmad | Bradshaw | 496 | 355.1 | 0.716 |
18 | Knowshon | Moreno | 510 | 364.2 | 0.714 |
19 | DeAngelo | Williams | 586 | 415.0 | 0.708 |
20 | Andre | Brown | 244 | 172.6 | 0.707 |
21 | Arian | Foster | 864 | 605.2 | 0.700 |
22 | Pierre | Thomas | 528 | 365.4 | 0.692 |
23 | Reggie | Bush | 797 | 549.1 | 0.689 |
24 | LeGarrette | Blount | 395 | 271.5 | 0.687 |
25 | Matt | Forte | 902 | 617.3 | 0.684 |
26 | Michael | Turner | 556 | 375.9 | 0.676 |
27 | DeMarco | Murray | 654 | 442.1 | 0.676 |
28 | Ray | Rice | 955 | 645.2 | 0.676 |
29 | Alfred | Morris | 631 | 423.6 | 0.671 |
30 | Roy | Helu | 301 | 201.3 | 0.669 |
- Actual 3-year Average (327 touches/season) -- 237 fantasy points per season
- 5% Reduction in Touches -- 225 FPTs (RB6 average fantasy ranking)
- 10% Reduction in Touches -- 213 FPTs (RB7 average fantasy ranking)
- 15% Reduction in Touches -- 201 FPTs (RB9 average fantasy ranking)
- 20% Reduction in Touches -- 190 FPTs (RB10 average fantasy ranking)
POSITIVES
- In a league that's more pass happy than ever, and utilizes more RB-by-committee, Lynch is a true workhorse -- he's had the most touches of any NFL runner over the last three seasons
- The Seahawks won a Super Bowl last year by focusing on a power running game and stifling defense -- the old adage 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' applies
- Lynch is a powerhouse runner with a low center of gravity, ability to break tackles, and an above average ability to convert at the goal line
NEGATIVES
- Lynch is unhappy with his contract, but the Seahawks have little incentive to redo his deal
- Christine Michael, Robert Turbin and Spencer Ware are all capable of larger roles
FINAL THOUGHTS
It's true that Marshawn Lynch is volume dependent. That doesn't mean you should avoid Lynch for fear of a drop-off in fantasy value. As we've shown, there are a number of reasons to think Lynch's role could be in for at least a minor reduction in 2014 -- yet even with a 20% reduction from his 3-year average, Lynch still rates as a fantasy RB1 in standard leagues. The one potential fly in the ointment is his hold out. [UPDATE: Lynch has ended his hold out] There's no reason to worry about a week or two -- plenty of veterans like to avoid the dog days of training camp. Yet if his hold out lasts well into the preseason schedule, one has to wonder if conditioning becomes a risk. For now, I would comfortably slot Lynch as a low end fantasy RB1 and ideal fantasy RB2, at least in standard leagues. In PPR leagues I would feel more comfortable rostering Lynch as my RB2 -- which would only be possible if you're drafting toward the tail end the first round in a serpentine draft and can add him with your (early) second round pick.
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | SEA | 15 | 285 | 1204 | 12 | 41 | 28 | 212 | 1 | |
2012 | SEA | 16 | 315 | 1590 | 11 | 34 | 23 | 196 | 1 | |
2013 | SEA | 16 | 301 | 1257 | 12 | 44 | 36 | 316 | 2 | 1 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 250 | 1038 | 10 | 26 | 221 | 2 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 280 | 1185 | 10 | 27 | 215 | 2 | 1 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 280 | 1200 | 11 | 28 | 225 | 2 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 249 | 1039 | 10 | 37 | 331 | 2 | 3 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Our own Chase Stuart says that worrying about RBs with heavy workloads the prior year isn't backed up by the data:
The carries variable in the prior year is associated with fewer points of VBD in the current year, but the effect is pretty miniscule. Giving a player an extra 150 carries in the prior year only reduces their expected VBD in the current year by 4.5 points. That's less than one touchdown, so it's a very small effect to the extent it even exists. It's certainly possible that the results could have looked this way by chance. Again, untangling workload history from quality is close to impossible, so these results could still be biased due to the issue. But this is another study that doesn't seem to support the idea that a high workload in the past is a significant issue for fantasy players to worry about. That's good news for Marshawn Lynch fantasy owners.
Walter Cherepinsky of WalterFootball thinks Lynch is a bust candidate:
Marshawn Lynch’s current ADP is somewhere in the middle of the first round, but I’d avoid him unless he fell to the end of the second. There are way too many red flags around Lynch this season. The primary issue is his recent workload. Lynch has amassed around 1,000 carries over the past three seasons, and he had more carries than any running back last year (if the playoffs are included). Running backs who log the most carries in a season have a dubious history in the following year, as Arian Foster learned in 2013, and Maurice Jones-Drew before him.