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A ROOKIE SEASON FOR THE AGES
Keenan Allen fell in the NFL draft because of a number of considerations, notably a slower-than-expected 40-time and a collegiate drug offense. The Chargers saw enough from Allen's game film to overlook those concerns and select him in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL draft. A year later, it's easy to declare the move a brilliant one, as Allen not only produced, but was the cornerstone of the Chargers' resurgent offense.
- 71 receptions
- 1,046 yards
- 8 touchdowns
- WR17 ranking (non-PPR)
To put those numbers into context, let's compare them to other NFL rookie receivers throughout history:
Rank | First | Last | Year | Recs | Yds | TDs | FPTs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Randy | Moss | 1998 | 69 | 1313 | 17 | 302.7 |
2 | Bill | Groman | 1960 | 72 | 1473 | 12 | 291.3 |
3 | Anquan | Boldin | 2003 | 101 | 1377 | 8 | 289.7 |
4 | Charley | Taylor | 1964 | 53 | 814 | 5 | 269.9 |
5 | Michael | Clayton | 2004 | 80 | 1193 | 7 | 244.3 |
6 | Terry | Glenn | 1996 | 90 | 1132 | 6 | 243.4 |
7 | John | Jefferson | 1978 | 56 | 1001 | 13 | 234.8 |
8 | Joey | Galloway | 1995 | 67 | 1039 | 7 | 234.3 |
9 | Eddie | Royal | 2008 | 91 | 980 | 5 | 229.9 |
10 | Mike | Williams | 2010 | 65 | 964 | 11 | 227.4 |
11 | Billy | Brooks | 1986 | 65 | 1131 | 8 | 226.6 |
12 | Keenan | Allen | 2013 | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 223.6 |
13 | Bob | Hayes | 1965 | 46 | 1003 | 12 | 223.5 |
14 | Marques | Colston | 2006 | 70 | 1038 | 8 | 221.8 |
15 | A.J. | Green | 2011 | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 218.0 |
16 | Eric | Metcalf | 1989 | 54 | 397 | 4 | 217.0 |
17 | Cris | Collinsworth | 1981 | 67 | 1009 | 8 | 215.9 |
18 | Kevin | Johnson | 1999 | 66 | 986 | 8 | 212.0 |
19 | Eddie | Brown | 1985 | 53 | 942 | 8 | 208.1 |
20 | Ernest | Givins | 1986 | 61 | 1062 | 3 | 206.0 |
Allen wasn't just good, he was historically great as a rookie. His 2013 season ranks as the 12th best by a rookie WR in NFL History.
MORE DANGEROUS WITH THE BALL IN HIS HANDS THAN IN THE AIR
Allen's success last year was oddly composed. In spite of averaging an impressive 14.7 yards per reception, Allen did very little downfield. For someone that played almost exclusively outside (12% of his snaps were inside in the slot), Allen was only targeted 12 times downfield (20+ yards downfield). He only caught 2 passes downfield; which is almost unheard of for an outside WR. If Allen didn't catch deep passes, how was he able to average almost 15 yards per reception? The answer...he was a BEAST with the ball in his hands.
Rank | First | Last | Team | YAC | YACperRec |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Golden | Tate | SEA | 506 | 7.9 |
2 | Eddie | Royal | SD | 361 | 7.7 |
2 | Demaryius | Thomas | DEN | 706 | 7.7 |
2 | Chris | Givens | SL | 262 | 7.7 |
5 | Josh | Gordon | CLV | 633 | 7.3 |
6 | James | Jones | GB | 369 | 6.3 |
7 | Kendall | Wright | TEN | 583 | 6.2 |
8 | Kenny | Stills | NO | 195 | 6.1 |
9 | Antonio | Brown | PIT | 657 | 6.0 |
9 | Pierre | Garcon | WAS | 675 | 6.0 |
9 | DeSean | Jackson | PHI | 489 | 6.0 |
9 | Harry | Douglas | ATL | 513 | 6.0 |
9 | Keenan | Allen | SD | 427 | 6.0 |
THE KEY TO MORE SUCCESS = MORE TARGETS
Allen ranked 17th last year in spite of only seeing 104 targets. On a fantasy point per target basis, Allen ranked 8th among receivers with at least 50 targets (2nd among those with 100+ targets).
Rank | First | Last | Tgts | FPTs | FPTs/Tgt |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kenny | Stills | 50 | 127.1 | 2.54 |
2 | Eddie | Royal | 67 | 159.1 | 2.37 |
3 | Marvin | Jones | 80 | 188.7 | 2.36 |
4 | Demaryius | Thomas | 142 | 319.0 | 2.25 |
5 | Riley | Cooper | 82 | 180.3 | 2.20 |
6 | Jerricho | Cotchery | 76 | 166.2 | 2.19 |
7 | Doug | Baldwin | 73 | 158.4 | 2.17 |
8 | Keenan | Allen | 104 | 224.1 | 2.15 |
9 | DeSean | Jackson | 125 | 268.0 | 2.14 |
10 | Jordy | Nelson | 126 | 264.4 | 2.10 |
11 | Eric | Decker | 136 | 281.8 | 2.07 |
12 | Terrance | Williams | 74 | 148.0 | 2.00 |
13 | Josh | Gordon | 159 | 314.4 | 1.98 |
14 | Calvin | Johnson | 155 | 304.9 | 1.97 |
15 | Cordarrelle | Patterson | 77 | 149.7 | 1.94 |
16 | Anquan | Boldin | 128 | 246.0 | 1.92 |
17 | Wes | Welker | 110 | 210.8 | 1.92 |
18 | Golden | Tate | 98 | 186.9 | 1.91 |
19 | Alshon | Jeffery | 149 | 283.6 | 1.90 |
20 | Julio | Jones | 59 | 111.7 | 1.89 |
Considering Allen wasn't annointed the lead target until October, it won't take much for him to see a 20%-25% jump in targets this season. Realistically he could see an even larger bump given the natural maturation we can expect from Allen in his second year. Either way, it's simply a matter of getting more throws his way to vault into the fantasy WR1 territory.
DOES REICH = WHISENHUNT?
Ken Whisenhunt is a respected offensive mind that's been successful as a play-caller with Pittsburgh (Super Bowl), Arizona (Super Bowl appearance) and San Diego. Unfortunately Whisenhunt took his offensive stylings and moved onto Tennessee as the head coach. Chargers head coach Mike McCoy prefers not to call plays and, as a result, the Chargers offense will be handed over to first time OC Frank Reich. There's no doubt Reich's prowess is unestablished, and it's riskier to bet on his game plans than it was on Whisenhunt's. However, Reich is well respected in NFL coaching circles and few NFL personnel executives doubt he's ready to handle the in-game duties. Reich will utilize the same system and, most importantly, allow QB Philip Rivers the same freedom he was given under Whisenhunt.
POSITIVES
- Allen is already a laser-sharp route runner, with glue-like hands
- Philip Rivers has reestablished himself as one of the league's most accurate, efficient passers
- Allen is easily the team's top receiving option, and should be in line for a meaningful increase from last year's 104 targets
NEGATIVES
- The Chargers ranked 22nd in attempts last year, and are more committed to a balanced offense than most teams
- Ken Whisenhunt accepted the Titans head coaching job, meaning Frank Reich -- a first time offensive coordinator -- will call the plays
- Allen doesn't have the deep speed to blow the roof off opposing defenses
FINAL THOUGHTS
Keenan Allen delivered one of the best fantasy seasons by a rookie in history, and there's absolutely no reason to think his performance was either a fluke or the peak of his abilities. What makes his monstrous rookie season even more impressive is that it came on a modest 104 targets. Assuming Allen stays healthy, it's not unreasonable to think Allen will see an uptick in targets, possibly as many as 140-150. Even if you forecast a slight downtick in his catch rate, it's not hard to project Allen for an 85 catch, 1,200-yard season. TDs are always difficult to project, but Philip Rivers remains in his prime and Allen is his favorite option (now that Antonio Gates is on the downslope). Unless you think players plateau as rookies, Allen is one of the best bets to vault into fantasy WR1 territory this season, particularly in PPR leagues.
PROJECTIONS
Keenan Allen Projections
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | SD | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 2 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 1100 | 7 | 1 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 1060 | 7 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 1200 | 8 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 1105 | 7 | 1 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Bleacher Report's Garrett Baker sees Allen as a potential WR1 this year:
Finally, Chargers receiver Keenan Allen also has the potential to turn into a legitimate No. 1 fantasy wideout in 2014 if he builds on his great rookie season.
After slipping to the third round in the draft, Allen set out to prove everyone wrong and was San Diego's best receiver for most of the season.
He was second on the team with 105 targets and led the squad with 1,046 yards. His 14.7 average yards after catch and eight total touchdowns are extremely encouraging for his future as well.
While Antonio Gates is still around, Allen will be virtually unchallenged as the team's top receiver—Malcolm Floyd and Eddie Royal are simply complementary guys at this point.
Allen isn't the most dynamic athlete, but he's a steady playmaker who should only get better this season. He had a better rookie year and was used more than Gordon was in his first year, and there's still plenty of room for him to truly break out in a big way.