It's unbelievable how much perception clouds reality. Ask 100 fantasy owners who they would rather own this year -- Julius Thomas or Jason Witten -- and you would be lucky to find 10 people who would side with the Cowboys veteran. After all, Thomas is an 'explosive athlete' with 'upside' and 'game-breaking ability', right? Witten is serviceable in PPR leagues but he doesn't offer the playmaking upside that Thomas does. Or so most people would argue. Yet, a careful analysis of the two players argues something quite different.
FALLACY: JULIUS THOMAS STRECHES DEFENSES, WITTEN DOESN'T
- 8 of Thomas' 90 targets (9%) were 20+ yards downfield, he caught 5 of them (2 TDs)
- 12 of Witten's 111 targets (11%) were 20+ yards downfield, he caught 6 of them (2 TDs)
FALLACY: JASON WITTEN HAS TO BLOCK MORE
Even if you give Witten credit for being an elite offensive tight end, many argue that Witten has less upside because he's asked to stay in and pass block more than Thomas. A quaint notion, but unture.
- Last year, Witten stayed in to pass block 14% of the time
- Last year, Thomas stayed in to pass block 20% of the time
FALLACY: JULIUS THOMAS IS MORE EXPLOSIVE
- Thomas averaged 12.1 yards per reception last year
- Witten averaged 11.7 yards per reception last year
WITTEN ISN'T JULIUS THOMAS, BUT THAT'S OKAY
Julius Thomas is the consensus #2 fantasy TE and has an average draft position of 26 (early 3rd round in 12-team leagues). Jason Witten has an ADP of 65 (middle of the 6th round). Here are the RBs and WRs you would have to pass up on to target each tight end:
- Thomas -- Randall Cobb (24th), Zac Stacy (25th), Pierre Garcon (30th), Reggie Bush (31st), Keenan Allen (32nd)
- Witten -- Torry Smith (62nd), Kendall Wright (63rd), Rashad Jennings (64th), Jeremy Maclin (66th), Frank Gore (68th)
CONSISTENCY VS. UPSIDE -- A PHILOSOPHICAL DEBATE
There's no right or wrong answer to the question of whether upside or consistency should be valued more on draft day. Personally, I give a lot of weight to players who have proven capable of top tier production year in, year out. There are so few players who maintain fantasy starter value for more than a few seasons. Again, it gets back to ADP. Do you want to draft someone in the 3rd round that you hope has the ability to match or exceed last year's numbers, or do you want to draft someone three rounds later that you KNOW is likely to finish in the top 5?
- 2004 -- TE3 (87/980/6)
- 2005 -- TE6 (66/757/6)
- 2006 -- TE12 (64/754/1)
- 2007 -- TE1 (96/1,145/7)
- 2008 -- TE2 (81/952/4)
- 2009 -- TE8 (94/1,030/2)
- 2010 -- TE1 (94/1,002/9)
- 2011 -- TE6 (79/942/5)
- 2012 -- TE5 (110/1,039/3)
- 2013 -- TE6 (73/851/8)
- 10-Year Averages -- TE5 (84/945/5)
POSITIVES
- Witten has averaged 84 catches for 945 yards and 5 touchdowns over the last TEN YEARS
- He's showed no signs of slowing down, last year's 11.7 yards per reception is higher than his career mark, and his 8 TDs was the 2nd best of his career
- Tony Romo remains one of the league's most accurate passers, and Witten is his most trusted target
- The Cowboys defense could be historically bad, guaranteeing shootouts
- New OC Scott Linehan is among the most pass happy play-callers in the NFL
NEGATIVES
- Witten has struggled to find the end zone at times
- Tony Romo is recovering from offseason back surgery
- The Cowboys offensive line has questions, which could require Witten to block more (last year he stayed in to block on just 14% of snaps)
FINAL THOUGHTS
Is Jason Witten a sexy pick? No. Is he a smart pick? Most definitely. I compared Witten to new 'it boy' Julius Thomas to make a point; sometimes perception trumps reality. That's how draft day values are created. More importantly, even if you think Thomas' red-zone prowess sets him ahead of Witten (I wouldn't disagree), go through the same exercise I just did with the likes of Witten versus Jordan Cameron and Vernon Davis. Tell me how either of those players deserves to go ahead of Witten? The only reason you could discount Witten is fear of an age-related drop off, but I would counter with the fact Witten has shown zero signs of degradation. His yards per catch, catch rate, drop rate, YAC rate and TD rate remain at or above career marks. He's got an elite quarterback throwing to him; and that quarterback trusts Witten implicitly. Finally the Cowboys have an awful defense combined with a new play-caller who called more than 1,300 passes in the last two seasons for Detroit. Don't overthink things, Jason Witten in the 6th or 7th round makes a ton of sense, particularly if you're also considering the likes of Jordan Cameron or Vernon Davis a round earlier.
PROJECTIONS
Jason Witten Projections
YEAR | G | REC | YD | TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | DAL | 16 | 79 | 942 | 5 |
2012 | DAL | 16 | 110 | 1039 | 3 |
2013 | DAL | 16 | 73 | 851 | 8 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 72 | 828 | 6 |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 76 | 850 | 7 |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 75 | 850 | 5 |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 70 | 795 | 7 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Koreansteve says:
Finally Dallas figured out how to use Jason Witten in the red zone. His 8 TDs in 2013 were the 2nd highest total of his career, although his yardage (851) dipped a bit because of the general mediocrity of the passing game last year. Witten is now 32 years old, but I don't see too many signs why his magnificent career would take a downturn in 2014. An 80 catch season seems about par for the course now.
TheDirtyWord says:
As mentioned above, Witten is simply a guy who by the end of the year has put up one of the better TE seasons of the year. Except very rarely does an owner say ‘thanks God for Jason Witten’. He’s never been a prolific red zone type threat. Generally he’ll come in as incrementally better than the mediocre field at the position, but for the most part, the premium you pay for him seems to be higher than the value it’s worth. I don’t mind trading for Witten during the season because what generally seems to happen is that someone who did draft him feels underwhelmed by the return since they thought they were drafting strength at the position. But with 4 seasons of 1000 yards, his TD totals for them (9, 7, 3, 2) are mixed. Last year he made up for one of his lower yardage years with 8 TDs. But we know what Jason Witten is at this point in his career. Even with a suspected stronger tendency to throw the ball, I’d be surprised to see Witten’s production increase much at this stage of his career. How much Gavin Escobar progresses in year 2 remains to be seen, but given the dearth of talent the Cowboys have at receiver, they’ll need more than the 9 receptions they got from him last season.