CLEVELAND'S CORNERSTONE
Jordan Cameron emerged in his third season -- finally staying healthy and turning his unquestionable athleticism into on-field dominance. In spite of playing with multiple quarterbacks, and missing a game, Cameron finished with 80 receptions for 917 yards (11.5 yards per catch) and 7 touchdowns; he finished as the 5th ranked fantasy tight end. Cameron was one of two bright spots (along with WR Josh Gordon) in an otherwise dismal year -- Cleveland finished 27th in points scored.
With Josh Gordon's near-term future uncertain (his appeal is pending but considered unlikely to be granted), Cameron is literally the only proven weapon in the passing game.
Johnny Manziel vs. Brian Hoyer
The Browns had a revolving door at quarterback last year, with Jason Campbell, Brandon Weeden and Brian Hoyer in the mix. Campell and Weeden are no longer in Cleveland, and Hoyer now finds himself in a battle with (in)famous rookie Johnny Manziel. Hoyer bounced around the league (New England to Arizona to Cleveland) before landing in Cleveland last year and working his way into a starting role. Hoyer started Week Three (@Minnesota) and Week Four (vs. Cincinnati) before tearing his ACL in Week Five (vs. Buffalo). In the two full games Hoyer played, he zeroed in on Cameron:
- Vs. Minnesota -- 11 targets, 6 receptions, 66 yards, 3 touchdowns
- Vs. Cincinnati -- 12 targets, 10 receptions, 91 yards, 1 touchdown
While it's dangerous if not foolhardy to extrapolate two games (small sample size), pro rating Hoyer's two starts over a full 16-game season does illustrate the natural chemistry between the two players:
- 184 targets
- 128 receptions
- 1,256 yards
- 32 receiving touchdowns
If Manziel wins the job, it's difficult to draw too many conclusions. "Johnny Football" is dynamic, but his devil-may-care, scrambling, improvisational heroics at Texas A&M don't provide too many clues about Manziel's future as an NFL pro passer. Most believe Manziel has the talent to thrive at the NFL level -- it's his maturity that's in question. Assuming Manziel gets in the huddle, Cameron stands to benefit for two reasons: One, young quarterbacks love to lock onto a target (or two) as a safety valve, and Cameron is the only obvious choice (assuming Josh Gordon is suspended), and two, Manziel's ability to improvise and keep plays alive with his legs should be of particular help to Cameron, who can break coverage and get deep downfield.
OUT WITH THE OLD (TURNER AND CHUDZINSKI), IN WITH THE NEW (PETTINE AND SHANAHAN)
Say what you will about the Browns offense last year, but Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski were ABSOLUTELY beneficial ingredients in the "Jordan Cameron Recipe." Turner has a long history of featuring the tight end, from his days with Jay Novacek in Dallas to Antonio Gates' dominant years in San Diego. And Chudzinski's stock in trade was coaching tight ends (Jeremy Shockey and Kellen Winslow at Miami, Gates in San Diego) before landing a head coaching job. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has shown a willingness to feature the TE, both in Houston and Washington, but I don't know that we can consider the change in coordinators anything better than a neutral for Cameron.
DOES JOSH GORDON'S STATUS MATTER?
Fantasy players are of two minds on Gordon's impact on Cameron. Some believe Gordon is so dominant, particularly as a deep threat, that his absence (by way of suspension) will free up opposing defenses to key on Cameron. Others believe Gordon was such a vacuum for targets last year that his absence (and that of any other viable receivers) will force either Hoyer or Manziel to force the ball into Cameron's hands. I don't have a horse in this race, and could realistically see it play out in either direction. Suffice to say you're going to avoid Cameron if you think Gordon's absence negatively impacts him; whereas I'm willing to bet on Cameron and take the chance the added defensive attention will be more than offset by the added targets.
For what it's worth, Josh Gordon was suspended for the first two games of last year, and Cameron flourished:
- Week 1 (vs. Miami) -- 13 targets, 9 receptions, 108 yards, 1 TD
- Week 2 (@ Baltimore) -- 7 targets, 5 receptions, 95 yards
Again, it's impossible to extrapolate two games with any conviction, but for illustrative purposes, a 16-game pro-ration of Cameron's games without Gordon equals:
- 160 targets
- 112 receptions
- 1,624 yards
- 8 receiving touchdowns
POSITIVES
- Cameron was the 5th best fantasy TE last year, and is one of the new breed of big (6'5", 254 lbs.) yet explosive tight ends that are reshaping the position
- Albeit small samples, Cameron was on pace for MONSTROUS numbers with Brian Hoyer under center, and was equally dominant without Josh Gordon in the lineup
- The Browns' offensive line is among the best in the league, allowing Cameron to focus on running routes versus staying in as an extra blocker
NEGATIVES
- Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski -- two offensive minds that love to feature the tight end -- are gone and Kyle Shanahan takes over; Shanahan has historically shown more balance in his approach
- Cameron has battled injuries and has yet to play a full 16-game schedule
- The quarterback situation remains in flux, with neither Brian Hoyer nor Johnny Manziel a proven commodity
FINAL THOUGHTS
I want to pound the table for Jordan Cameron. My eyes and the film room tell me Cameron is capable of the same dominance we've come to expect from Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas. Yet, an objective evaluation raises as many questions as answers. It's hard to have CONVICTION on Cameron because there are unanswered trade-offs. Was last year's chemistry with Brian Hoyer sustainable or a two-game statistical fluke? Does Johnny Manziel's penchant for ad hoc play-making set up Cameron for big downfield gains, or does it lead to forced throws and stalled drives? Does Josh Gordon's (presumed) absence mean Cameron gets monster targets or extra defensive attention? Will Kyle Shanahan's overall offensive approach mean better offensive fluidity or will his tendency to slow down the game and feature outside receivers put Cameron in a less advantageous situation? If I'm rolling the dice, I'm betting on a career year for Cameron regardless of who is under center. But unlike many of my recommendations, this is a highly speculative one and based as much on instinct as statistical analysis. Draft accordingly.
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | REC | YD | TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | CLE | 8 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
2012 | CLE | 14 | 20 | 226 | 1 |
2013 | CLE | 15 | 80 | 917 | 7 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 75 | 825 | 6 |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 75 | 885 | 7 |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 87 | 1040 | 6 |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 75 | 849 | 6 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Shawn Siegel of ProFootballFocus lists Cameron as one of seven red flag tight ends:
Optimism abounds for Cameron, the default top target in Cleveland. When considering his upside, it’s worth remembering that he led the position with 622 routes last season. His target rate could rise from last year’s 18% and still leave him with fewer targets in Kyle Shanahan’s slow-paced attack. According to Mike Clay’s situational play-calling article, only the Bills, Jets, Rams, and Chargers were more run-heavy than Washington when adjusting for time and score. Cameron could certainly emerge in 2014, but the volume-based reasons for a breakout were already baked into his 2013 numbers.
Tim Heaney of KFFL warns against expecting Cameron to repeat last year's numbers:
Some argue a full-season Josh Gordon suspension will create more targets for Cameron. TE guru Norv Turner is gone, though, which deals a significant fantasy blow. An offense without Gordon makes Cameron the defensive focal point, and the Johnny Manziel-Brian Hoyer battle should stall Cleveland receivers. Don't pay for Cameron's 2013 stats; they're not happening again.