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DeSean Jackson's release by the Philadelphia Eagles was deemed a "Football Decision" by head coach Chip Kelly. It's very hard to accept that rationale. By nearly any measure, Jackson was not only the Eagles' top receiver, he was one of the two or three best receivers in the NFL last year. Period.
Don't believe me? Think I'm overstating things?
LET'S GET THE EAGLES' CLAIM OUT OF THE WAY...
- 82 receptions (LeSean McCoy was 2nd on the team with 52 receptions)
- 1,332 yards (Riley Cooper was 2nd with 835 yards)
- 9 touchdowns (Riley Cooper was 2nd with 8)
NOW LET'S TACKLE THE CLAIM THAT JACKSON WAS AMONG THE NFL'S bEST...
- Catch rate (68.9%) -- Jackson ranked 8th among receivers with at least 100 targets
- Deep catch rate (49%) -- Jackson caught 49% of passes 20+ yards downfield, 2nd only to Eric Decker
- Deep touchdowns (8) -- Jackson and A.J. Green were tied for 1st with 8 touchdowns of 20+ yards
- Drop rate (5.8%) -- Jackson ranked 4th among qualifying receivers in fewest drops
- QB rating (124.4) -- Quarterbacks racked up an astounding 124.4 passer rating when throwing to Jackson last year, best in the league
- Touchdown rate (7.6%) -- Jackson ranked 9th among qualifying receivers
- Yards after-the-catch (6.0) -- Jackson ranked 7th among qualifying receivers
- Yards per reception (16.2) -- Jackson ranked 4th among receiver with 100+ targets
How many other receivers were dominant in every facet of the game? I'll give you a hint -- none. No one else ranked in the top 10 of all those metrics.
HEADING TO d.c. WITH RGIII AND JAY GRUDEN...
If DeSean Jackson's release from Philadelphia was for 'football reasons', why did it take him just a few days to land a new 3-year, $24 million contract with $16mm guaranteed from Washington. Jackson will fit right into an offense in desperate need of a deep threat, and he gets the benefit of a strong-armed, mobile quarterback who throws a pinpoint deep ball. It's a match made in heaven. Jay Gruden comes over from Cincinnati where he turned Andy Dalton into a serviceable passer and helped mold A.J. Green into one of the league's top overall receivers. Considering what Gruden achieved with the likes of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, it's exciting to think what he can do with a tandem like Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.
GARCON AND JACKSON, A MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL PARTNERSHIP...
Some fantasy pundits suggest that Jackson's addition hurts the fantasy prospects of both Pierre Garcon and Jackson, since both were their quarterbacks obvious top choice a year ago. I think that's a bit myopic. First of all, both receivers play different roles. Jackson rarely plays the slot and runs deep and intermediate vertical routes primarily. 46% of Jackson's routes were 10+ yards downfield, whereas Garcon saw only 22% of his catches beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Garcon was the Redskins safety blanket last year, even though he had a higher drop rate and lower catch rate than Jackson did in Philadelphia. Now opposing defenses can't key on either player, something that happened regularly last year.
HEAD INJURIES ARE THE ONE RED FLAG YOU CAN'T IGNORE...
The NFL treats concussions and head trauma MUCH differently today than ever before. Jackson had has multiple concussions and, at his size (5'9", 169 lbs.), one has to consider him a greater risk of injury than most at the position. Jackson would likely miss multiple games, if not the entire season, if he suffers another head injury.
POSITIVES
- Jackson showed last year that he's not merely an explosive deep threat, but one of the most versatile receivers in the league
- RGII is healthy and throws an excellent deep ball, plus Griffin's mobility affords him a chance to keep plays alive and find Jackson downfield in broken coverage
- Jackson will be in line for as many targets as he was in Philadelphia (Gruden calls more passes than Chip Kelly did last year), but will now have Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed to keep defenses honest
NEGATIVES
- Washington is undergoing a lot of change, including new coaches, a new offensive system, and a rebuilt offensive line
- Jackson has been known to let a lack of targets and/or conflicts with coaches impact his on-field performance
- One more head traumu could effectively remove Jackson from the lineup for an extended period
FINAL THOUGHTS
Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson will end up making each other better players. The Redskins will throw enough under Jay Gruden to justify lofty rankings for both receivers and history certainly doesn't preclude top 20 tandems. Julio Jones and Roddy White of the Falcons, Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall of the Bears and Demaryius Thomas and Erick Decker in Denver are the most recent examples. As long as Jackson stays healthy, he should push for low end fantasy WR1 numbers in standard leagues. He's a bit less compelling in PPR leagues, but remains a rock solid fantasy WR2. It would be a mild surprise if Jackson finishes with fewer than 1,000 yards and 7-9 touchdowns. Draft accordingly.
PROJECTIONS
DeSean Jackson Projections
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | PHI | 15 | 7 | 41 | 0 | 102 | 58 | 961 | 4 | |
2012 | PHI | 11 | 3 | -7 | 0 | 86 | 45 | 700 | 2 | |
2013 | PHI | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 126 | 82 | 1332 | 9 | |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 63 | 932 | 7 | 1 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 15 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 65 | 1090 | 7 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 1050 | 7 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 65 | 957 | 7 | 1 |
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Bill Pivetz of Rant Sporst cautions against reaching for Jackson:
Jackson should not be drafted as a top-15 wide receiver. He is a big-play threat, but isn’t a red-zone target. Jackson will be used to break away from the opposing secondary and rack up some yards. Robert Griffin III III will target Garcon and Reed in the redzone while also dialing his own number from time to time.
TheDirtyWord says:
Jackson had never really shown the ability to frequently produce in the underneath and intermediate routes before 2013. Whether it was Chip Kelly or Jackson simply recognizing a gap in his game and being motivated to make adjustments, developing a better all around game had an impact in every aspect of his production. The question you have to ask yourself though is how Jackson will be used with a true #1 WR opposite him. Going into 2013, the Eagles and Jackson knew that he’d have to be relied on heavily. I mean their #2 WR was a guy everyone in the locker room despised.
Ultimately, I think Jackson will settle in as a more well-rounded receiver for WAS, and one who will pose a threat each time he’s on the field on the outside causing defenses to think behind them where Jackson’s concerned. Also, I don’t see Jackson replicating his snap total of 1010 he attained in 2013.
MattFancy says:
One of the bigger wild cards going into 2014 will be DeSean Jackson. Can he improve on his career year last season or will he go back down to what he was before Chip Kelly? Being in a new offense with a new QB and coach are never an easy transition for a WR. Jackson will also have to compete with another top WR across from him in Garcon and a top TE in Reed. I don't think anyone is expecting DJax to repeat his numbers from last season, but I still think he'll be a solid real-life WR2 for the Skins and a borderline WR2/strong WR3 for fantasy purposes. I could see Jackson being used as more of a clear out WR in Washington and catching some short passes in hopes of picking up some YAC yards. RG3 certainly has the arm strength to get the ball to Jackson deep as long as the OL gives RG3 time. Jackson's production will be determined by how well RG3 can get him the ball downfield and how often the Skins decide to feature him on passing plays. I could see Jackson finishing anywhere between WR20-WR25 this season.
jurb26 says:
To me, Jackson is quite possibly the missing piece of the puzzle for Wash on offense. He's the guy they have been needing to help RG3 flourish for 2 years and the guy who will allow RG3 to utilize his complete skill set. Jackson plan and simply tilts the field. His ability to get over the top of defenses is among the very best in the NFL and that ability changes defensive schemes. Jackson has proven to be one of the best, if not THE best, deep threats in the NFL and a big play machine.... All due respect to other greats like Calvin, AJ and Gordon. Jackson has a career YPC of 17.2 and only 2x has he been under 16 in his 6 year NFL career. One of those season was his rookie year and the other an injury riddled endeavor. Jackson has an amazing 109 (105 receiving and 4 rushing) plays over 20 yds in 87 games played.