Unlock More Content Like This With A
Footballguys Premium Subscription
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
POSITIVES
- Garcon should be the 49ers top target in most, if not all, game scripts
- Kyle Shanahan clearly knows how to leverage veteran receivers
- The 49ers should be forced into passing a lot as they play from behind
NEGATIVES
- Garcon needs a high target share for fantasy relevance; he's below average on a per-touch basis
- The 49ers quarterback situation is worrisome (Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley)
- He will be the unquestioned #1, and invite consistent defensive focus unlike his prior situations
Breaking the bank?
This NFL offseason was forecast as a bonanza for wide receivers, thanks to a handful of starting-caliber free agents and significant salary cap space throughout the league. When the dust settled, very few receivers struck paydirt. The tight market made the 49ers' pursuit of Pierre Garcon surprising. San Francisco signed Garcon to a 5-year, $47.5 million contract with $17 million in guarantees. By comparison, Garcon broke the bank compared to his peers:
- Pierre Garcon, SF -- 5-year, $47.5mm, $17mm guaranteed, $9.5mm average annual value (AAV)
- Kenny Britt, CLE -- 4-year, $32.5mm, $10.5mm guaranteed, $8.1mm AAV
- Robert Woods, LAR -- 5-year, $34mm, $15mm guaranteed, $6.8mm AAV
- Alshon Jeffery, PHI -- 1-year, $9.5mm, $8.8mm guaranteed, $9.5mm AAV
- Jeremy Maclin, BAL -- 2-year, $11mm, $6mm guaranteed, $5.5mm AAV
- Terrelle Pryor, WAS -- 1-year, $6mm, $6mm guaranteed, $6mm AAV
- Brandon Marshall, NYG -- 2-year, $11mm, $5mm guaranteed, $5.5mm AAV
- Eric Decker, TEN -- 1-year, $4mm, $2.5mm guaranteed, $4mm AAV
Reunited and It Feels So Good
- In two seasons with Shanahan (Pro-rata, 16 gms): 158 targets, 97 receptions, 1,225 yards, 6 touchdowns
- In seven seasons w/o Shanahana (Pro-rata, 16 gms): 101 targets, 61 receptions, 761 yards, 4 touchdowns
Team | Year | First | Last | Targets | NFLRank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
HOU | 2008 | Andre | Johnson | 170 | 3rd |
HOU | 2009 | Andre | Johnson | 171 | 1st |
WAS | 2010 | Santana | Moss | 145 | 7th |
WAS | 2011 | Jabar | Gaffney | 115 | 25th |
WAS | 2012 | Josh | Morgan | 80 | N/A |
WAS | 2013 | Pierre | Garcon | 182 | 2nd |
CLE | 2014 | Andrew | Hawkins | 112 | 32nd |
ATL | 2015 | Julio | Jones | 205 | 1st |
ATL | 2016 | Julio | Jones | 149 | 11th |
When Shanahan has a receiver with above average ability, they're going to see a disproportionate target share. It happened with Andre Johnson, Santana Moss, Pierre Garcon and Julio Jones.
Guaranteed Target Share
The stars appear aligned for Garcon to gobble up massive target share. We know Shanahan wants to feature his top receiver, but even if he wasn't known for playing favorites, an examination of the 49ers roster tells the tale. The 49ers are embarking on a complete rebuilding program under new GM John Lynch and Shanahan, and there aren't any other credible threats to steal targets.
- Receivers -- Bruce Ellington, Marquise Goodwin, Aaron Burbridge, Jeremy Kerley, DeAndre Smelter, Trent Taylor, Aldrick Robinson
- Tight Ends -- Vance McDonald, Garrett Celek, Blake Bell, George Kittle
- Running Backs -- Carlos Hyde, Tim Hightower, Joe Williams, Kapri Bibbs
Is there anyone on the roster capable of challenging a healthy Garcon? Kerly is the most accomplished of the bunch, and he has a whopping 246 receptions in six seasons.
Thanks Goodness for target share, because garcon is Inefficient
Fantasy success comes from a confluence of ability and opportunity. Garcon has both, although his fantasy value leans lopsidedly in the opportunity side of the ledger. It’s important to recognize Garcon as a middling talent who happens to have an abundance of opportunity. Garcon has had just two WR2 seasons; he ranked 22nd in 2011 and 13th in 2013. He’s never been a #1 fantasy receiver. Simply put, Garcon needs a ton of targets to be fantasy relevant on a weekly basis.
Fantasy Points per Target (Top 100 Wide Receivers, 2012-2016)
PPRRnk | StanRnk | First | Last | Tgts | Recs | FPTs | FPTs/Tgt | PPR-FPT | PPRFP/TGT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Terrelle | Pryor | 146 | 79 | 344.4 | 2.36 | 423.4 | 2.90 |
2 | 2 | Martavis | Bryant | 140 | 76 | 226.3 | 1.62 | 302.3 | 2.16 |
3 | 3 | Jordy | Nelson | 502 | 329 | 735.5 | 1.47 | 1,064.5 | 2.12 |
4 | 7 | Doug | Baldwin | 447 | 317 | 615.0 | 1.38 | 932.0 | 2.08 |
5 | 5 | Odell | BeckhamJr | 447 | 288 | 626.9 | 1.40 | 914.9 | 2.05 |
6 | 4 | Kenny | Stills | 274 | 164 | 394.6 | 1.44 | 558.6 | 2.04 |
7 | 11 | Brandin | Cooks | 314 | 215 | 424.2 | 1.35 | 639.2 | 2.04 |
8 | 12 | Randall | Cobb | 491 | 341 | 648.4 | 1.32 | 989.4 | 2.02 |
9 | 6 | Dez | Bryant | 593 | 354 | 830.9 | 1.40 | 1,184.9 | 2.00 |
10 | 10 | Eric | Decker | 524 | 335 | 711.6 | 1.36 | 1,046.6 | 2.00 |
11 | 9 | Terrance | Williams | 292 | 177 | 399.5 | 1.37 | 576.5 | 1.97 |
12 | 8 | DeSean | Jackson | 454 | 267 | 623.2 | 1.37 | 890.2 | 1.96 |
13 | 16 | Antonio | Brown | 800 | 548 | 1,010.7 | 1.26 | 1,558.7 | 1.95 |
14 | 17 | Julio | Jones | 683 | 443 | 861.0 | 1.26 | 1,304.0 | 1.91 |
15 | 15 | Lance | Moore | 227 | 145 | 287.3 | 1.27 | 432.3 | 1.90 |
16 | 19 | James | Jones | 400 | 246 | 501.8 | 1.25 | 747.8 | 1.87 |
17 | 38 | Willie | Snead | 203 | 142 | 237.0 | 1.17 | 379.0 | 1.87 |
18 | 18 | Tavon | Austin | 302 | 182 | 380.6 | 1.26 | 562.6 | 1.86 |
19 | 29 | Marques | Colston | 407 | 262 | 495.9 | 1.22 | 757.9 | 1.86 |
20 | 21 | A.J. | Green | 691 | 416 | 864.1 | 1.25 | 1,280.1 | 1.85 |
21 | 24 | Rishard | Matthews | 274 | 171 | 336.5 | 1.23 | 507.5 | 1.85 |
22 | 26 | Demaryius | Thomas | 787 | 492 | 963.4 | 1.22 | 1,455.4 | 1.85 |
23 | 39 | Eddie | Royal | 295 | 202 | 343.5 | 1.16 | 545.5 | 1.85 |
24 | 32 | Jarius | Wright | 205 | 135 | 243.2 | 1.19 | 378.2 | 1.84 |
25 | 56 | Cole | Beasley | 295 | 218 | 325.0 | 1.10 | 543.0 | 1.84 |
26 | 23 | Marvin | Jones | 318 | 189 | 394.7 | 1.24 | 583.7 | 1.84 |
27 | 42 | Golden | Tate | 570 | 389 | 653.9 | 1.15 | 1,042.9 | 1.83 |
28 | 13 | Sammy | Watkins | 275 | 153 | 348.8 | 1.27 | 501.8 | 1.82 |
29 | 20 | Malcom | Floyd | 257 | 144 | 322.0 | 1.25 | 466.0 | 1.81 |
30 | 51 | Keenan | Allen | 321 | 221 | 358.2 | 1.12 | 579.2 | 1.80 |
31 | 40 | Chris | Hogan | 195 | 125 | 225.4 | 1.16 | 350.4 | 1.80 |
32 | 14 | Ted | Ginn | 283 | 150 | 358.3 | 1.27 | 508.3 | 1.80 |
33 | 27 | Calvin | Johnson | 637 | 365 | 778.4 | 1.22 | 1,143.4 | 1.79 |
34 | 41 | Jerricho | Cotchery | 237 | 151 | 272.8 | 1.15 | 423.8 | 1.79 |
35 | 43 | Mohamed | Sanu | 331 | 212 | 379.3 | 1.15 | 591.3 | 1.79 |
36 | 37 | Jeremy | Maclin | 465 | 285 | 543.9 | 1.17 | 828.9 | 1.78 |
37 | 50 | Jordan | Matthews | 341 | 225 | 381.3 | 1.12 | 606.3 | 1.78 |
38 | 58 | Percy | Harvin | 198 | 135 | 216.3 | 1.09 | 351.3 | 1.77 |
39 | 31 | T.Y. | Hilton | 647 | 375 | 771.6 | 1.19 | 1,146.6 | 1.77 |
40 | 36 | Donte | Moncrief | 210 | 126 | 246.0 | 1.17 | 372.0 | 1.77 |
41 | 30 | Allen | Hurns | 274 | 150 | 332.4 | 1.21 | 482.4 | 1.76 |
42 | 33 | Alshon | Jeffery | 528 | 304 | 624.7 | 1.18 | 928.7 | 1.76 |
43 | 64 | Stefon | Diggs | 195 | 136 | 206.6 | 1.06 | 342.6 | 1.76 |
44 | 28 | Josh | Gordon | 301 | 161 | 367.4 | 1.22 | 528.4 | 1.76 |
45 | 35 | Rueben | Randle | 327 | 188 | 384.4 | 1.18 | 572.4 | 1.75 |
46 | 59 | Anquan | Boldin | 572 | 369 | 623.3 | 1.09 | 992.3 | 1.73 |
47 | 44 | Brandon | Marshall | 760 | 447 | 869.1 | 1.14 | 1,316.1 | 1.73 |
48 | 53 | Emmanuel | Sanders | 599 | 368 | 665.1 | 1.11 | 1,033.1 | 1.72 |
49 | 34 | Mike | Evans | 440 | 238 | 520.0 | 1.18 | 758.0 | 1.72 |
50 | 22 | Justin | Hunter | 163 | 78 | 202.5 | 1.24 | 280.5 | 1.72 |
51 | 52 | Rod | Streater | 213 | 128 | 237.2 | 1.11 | 365.2 | 1.71 |
52 | 25 | Torrey | Smith | 447 | 216 | 548.9 | 1.23 | 764.9 | 1.71 |
53 | 75 | Wes | Welker | 371 | 253 | 379.8 | 1.02 | 632.8 | 1.71 |
54 | 54 | Amari | Cooper | 260 | 154 | 287.6 | 1.11 | 441.6 | 1.70 |
55 | 46 | John | Brown | 271 | 152 | 308.2 | 1.14 | 460.2 | 1.70 |
56 | 68 | Roddy | White | 434 | 278 | 456.9 | 1.05 | 734.9 | 1.69 |
57 | 84 | Jarvis | Landry | 409 | 289 | 402.3 | 0.98 | 691.3 | 1.69 |
58 | 48 | Riley | Cooper | 263 | 146 | 296.5 | 1.13 | 442.5 | 1.68 |
59 | 61 | Cordarrelle | Patterson | 216 | 132 | 230.9 | 1.07 | 362.9 | 1.68 |
60 | 57 | Brandon | LaFell | 459 | 268 | 502.4 | 1.09 | 770.4 | 1.68 |
61 | 45 | Michael | Floyd | 460 | 247 | 523.6 | 1.14 | 770.6 | 1.68 |
62 | 67 | Michael | Crabtree | 558 | 346 | 588.4 | 1.05 | 934.4 | 1.67 |
63 | 81 | Julian | Edelman | 565 | 378 | 567.2 | 1.00 | 945.2 | 1.67 |
64 | 78 | Pierre | Garcon | 578 | 377 | 584.2 | 1.01 | 961.2 | 1.66 |
65 | 66 | Steve | Smith | 550 | 332 | 580.0 | 1.05 | 912.0 | 1.66 |
66 | 63 | Victor | Cruz | 373 | 221 | 397.3 | 1.07 | 618.3 | 1.66 |
67 | 49 | Travis | Benjamin | 296 | 156 | 333.1 | 1.13 | 489.1 | 1.65 |
68 | 79 | Kendall | Wright | 438 | 280 | 441.4 | 1.01 | 721.4 | 1.65 |
69 | 47 | Mike | Williams | 184 | 93 | 208.8 | 1.13 | 301.8 | 1.64 |
70 | 77 | Greg | Jennings | 296 | 183 | 302.0 | 1.02 | 485.0 | 1.64 |
71 | 65 | DeAndre | Hopkins | 554 | 317 | 586.7 | 1.06 | 903.7 | 1.63 |
72 | 62 | Mike | Wallace | 558 | 313 | 594.7 | 1.07 | 907.7 | 1.63 |
73 | 55 | Kelvin | Benjamin | 263 | 136 | 290.8 | 1.11 | 426.8 | 1.62 |
74 | 72 | Davante | Adams | 279 | 163 | 288.6 | 1.03 | 451.6 | 1.62 |
75 | 60 | Allen | Robinson | 381 | 201 | 415.1 | 1.09 | 616.1 | 1.62 |
76 | 74 | Jermaine | Kearse | 271 | 153 | 279.4 | 1.03 | 432.4 | 1.60 |
77 | 83 | Kamar | Aiken | 211 | 128 | 207.9 | 0.99 | 335.9 | 1.59 |
78 | 90 | Danny | Amendola | 343 | 231 | 314.8 | 0.92 | 545.8 | 1.59 |
79 | 85 | Larry | Fitzgerald | 691 | 433 | 664.7 | 0.96 | 1,097.7 | 1.59 |
80 | 69 | Kenny | Britt | 387 | 207 | 402.3 | 1.04 | 609.3 | 1.57 |
81 | 71 | Nate | Washington | 360 | 190 | 373.3 | 1.04 | 563.3 | 1.56 |
82 | 87 | Andre | Johnson | 589 | 356 | 560.9 | 0.95 | 916.9 | 1.56 |
83 | 86 | Steve | Johnson | 363 | 210 | 348.1 | 0.96 | 558.1 | 1.54 |
84 | 70 | Darrius | Heyward-Bey | 206 | 100 | 213.8 | 1.04 | 313.8 | 1.52 |
85 | 73 | Andre | Holmes | 211 | 102 | 218.2 | 1.03 | 320.2 | 1.52 |
86 | 76 | Vincent | Jackson | 541 | 268 | 552.6 | 1.02 | 820.6 | 1.52 |
87 | 89 | Robert | Woods | 345 | 203 | 319.4 | 0.93 | 522.4 | 1.51 |
88 | 80 | Brian | Quick | 209 | 105 | 209.9 | 1.00 | 314.9 | 1.51 |
89 | 93 | Andrew | Hawkins | 307 | 186 | 274.5 | 0.89 | 460.5 | 1.50 |
90 | 88 | Miles | Austin | 271 | 150 | 251.9 | 0.93 | 401.9 | 1.48 |
91 | 82 | Denarius | Moore | 227 | 109 | 226.7 | 1.00 | 335.7 | 1.48 |
92 | 99 | Harry | Douglas | 359 | 225 | 305.8 | 0.85 | 530.8 | 1.48 |
93 | 91 | Brian | Hartline | 405 | 235 | 363.6 | 0.90 | 598.6 | 1.48 |
94 | 95 | Jeremy | Kerley | 382 | 217 | 336.4 | 0.88 | 553.4 | 1.45 |
95 | 98 | Reggie | Wayne | 370 | 209 | 317.7 | 0.86 | 526.7 | 1.42 |
96 | 96 | Hakeem | Nicks | 284 | 154 | 246.7 | 0.87 | 400.7 | 1.41 |
97 | 94 | Cecil | Shorts | 437 | 227 | 387.9 | 0.89 | 614.9 | 1.41 |
98 | 100 | Dwayne | Bowe | 325 | 181 | 275.6 | 0.85 | 456.6 | 1.40 |
99 | 97 | Andre | Roberts | 309 | 168 | 265.6 | 0.86 | 433.6 | 1.40 |
100 | 92 | Chris | Givens | 237 | 107 | 212.1 | 0.89 | 319.1 | 1.35 |
Quarterback Woes, But Not An Insurmountable Factor
Brian Hoyer is slated to start for San Francisco, and the journeyman is among the worst projected starters in the league. Hoyer is 31 years old and is playing for his sixth team in seven seasons. While Hoyer isn't an All-Pro in waiting, Kyle Shanahan has fielded offenses with mediocre quarterbacks in the past, and the #1 receiver has remained relevant. In 2010, Donovan McNabb started 13 games for Washington with a horrific 14 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, but Santana Moss was productive. In 2013, Garcon's best season, a combination of Robert Griffin (82 passer rating with 16 touchdowns and 12 interceptions) and Kirk Cousins (4 touchdowns and 7 interceptions) muddled through a 3-13 season. Would it be better if San Francisco had an exciting veteran signal caller under center? Of course, but the 49ers need to throw the ball (because they'll be playing from behind) and the lack of viable alternative targets more than offsets Hoyer's mediocrity.
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | WAS | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 68 | 752 | 3 | |
2015 | WAS | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 72 | 777 | 6 | |
2016 | WAS | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 79 | 1041 | 3 | |
2017 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70 | 847 | 5 | 0 | |
2017 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 920 | 5 | 0 | |
2017 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 825 | 5 | 0 | |
2017 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 878 | 5 | 1 |
FINAL THOUGHTS
Pierre Garcon is not going a world beater. On a per-touch basis, the veteran is mediocre at best. However, he joins a San Francisco team in desperate need of a veteran target as the team looks to rebuild with youth over the next few seasons. He was targeted by John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan, and is assured of a massive target share as long as he remains healthy. The key is to set reasonable expectations. If you draft Garcon expecting a breakout Top 15 season, you're barking up the wrong tree. If you draft him expecting a reliable, high floor WR3/Flex option, you're getting solid value in the middle of the draft.
OTHER PERSPECTIVES
Sigmund believes Garcon is one of the most undervalued receivers at his current ADP:
"Garcon won’t win your league, but he will be a very useful player in PPR leagues. He was steady enough to be a reliable WR3/flex play last year despite scoring only three times. This year, he goes to San Francisco and gets plugged into a productive offensive mind in Kyle Shanahan and a prolific quarterback (at least in terms of attempts) in Brian Hoyer. Hoyer has boosted the value of his No. 1s like Josh Gordon, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cameron Meredith in previous years, and Garcon should be able to produce well on a losing team with Hoyer and even backup Matt Barkley, who like Hoyer threw a ton when he was on the field for a Bears last year."
Justin Howe loves Garcon because of Kyle Shanahan's offensive system:
"It's not always wise to follow offensive coordinator trends from one team to another, but it's hard to ignore the effect Kyle Shanahan tends to have on his starting X receiver. Studs like Julio Jones and Andre Johnson have been fed massively under his leadership, as well as more middle-of-the-pack guys like Jabar Gaffney and late-career Santana Moss. Garcon and Shanahan reunite after teaming up for 156 catches and 1,979 yards over 26 games together in Washington. And even if we ignore the Shanahan storyline, we still see Garcon firmly atop the league's worst wide receiver depth chart. Only suboptimal slot specialist Jeremy Kerley - a generally inefficient producer - stands between Garcon and a truly dominant stake in wide receiver targets. Regardless of the 49ers' 2017 offensive efficiency or their run/pass ratio, Garcon looks poised for a run at 90 receptions, yet he's often priced behind huge question marks like Corey Coleman and Corey Davis."