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positives
- Kelce is the centerpiece of the passing offense, as the team's best wide receiver is Tyreek Hill
- He has developed into a premier route runner, which mirrors well with his aggressiveness at the point of attack
- Alex Smith is a veteran quarterback who doesn't throw deep and completely trusts Kelce
Negatives
- Kelce hasn't been a prolific touchdown scorer
- With Jeremy Maclin gone, defenses will key on Kelce more than ever
- Alex Smith is never going to elevate the Chiefs offense to elite levels
Promise Fulfilled
It took Travis Kelce four seasons, but he finally reached the pinnacle of fantasy stardom. Kelce finished last season as the #1 fantasy tight end: 117 targets, 85 receptions, 1,125 yards and four touchdowns. Kelce’s rise to the top wasn’t sudden; he’s shown marked improvement in each season:
- 2013 – Injured Rookie Season
- 2014 – 67 for 862 yards (12.9 per catch) and five touchdowns (TE9)
- 2015 – 72 for 875 yards (12.2 per catch) and five touchdowns (TE6)
- 2016 – 85 for 1,125 yards (13.2 per catch) and four touchdowns (TE1)
Target Dominance
The majority of the dominant fantasy tight ends benefit from an inordinate share of targets, and Kelce is a textbook example.
Kansas City Tight End Targets, As a % of Total
- 2014 – 27.0% (5th in NFL)
- 2015 – 26.9% (6th)
- 2016 – 29.2% (3rd)
Total Targets, Tight Ends (2014-16)
Rank | First | Last | Years | Tgts |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Greg | Olsen | 2014--2016 | 376 |
2 | Delanie | Walker | 2014--2016 | 338 |
3 | Travis | Kelce | 2014--2016 | 307 |
4 | Zach | Ertz | 2014--2016 | 303 |
5 | Jimmy | Graham | 2014--2016 | 295 |
6 | Rob | Gronkowski | 2014--2016 | 289 |
7 | Jason | Witten | 2014--2016 | 286 |
8 | Martellus | Bennett | 2014--2016 | 282 |
9 | Antonio | Gates | 2014--2016 | 275 |
10 | Jordan | Reed | 2014--2016 | 265 |
Roster Moves Guarantee Another Target-Rich Year
Jeremy Maclin was released (and is now in Baltimore), which leaves an already-thin receiving corps starving to competent options.
First | Last | Pos | Career Recs |
---|---|---|---|
Travis | Kelce | TE | 224 |
Albert | Wilson | WR | 82 |
Tyreek | Hill | WR | 61 |
Chris | Conley | WR | 61 |
Gavin | Escobar | TE | 30 |
Demetrius | Harris | TE | 27 |
Orson | Charles | TE | 9 |
Corey | Washington | WR | 5 |
Ross | Travis | TE | 3 |
Seantavius | Jones | WR | 0 |
Demarcus | Robinson | WR | 0 |
Jehu | Chesson | WR | 0 |
The Chiefs may have the least experienced receiving corps in the league. For a veteran team with a veteran quarterback, it's essentially impossible to craft a fundamental case where Kelce isn't among the most targeted tight ends week in, week out.
Can Kelce's Touchdown Rate Improve?
The only thing keeping Kelce from being viewed alongside Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates (in his prime), is an uninspiring touchdown rate. Over the last decade, Kelce's 4.6% touchdown rate (touchdown catches to targets) ranks 45th among qualified tight ends.
Touch Down Rate, Tight Ends (2007-2016, Minimum: 100 Targets)
Rank | First | Last | Years | Tgts | Recs | RecTDs | TD% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Julius | Thomas | 2011--2016 | 289 | 185 | 33 | 11.4% |
2 | Tyler | Eifert | 2013--2016 | 179 | 123 | 20 | 11.2% |
3 | Rob | Gronkowski | 2010--2016 | 617 | 405 | 68 | 11.0% |
4 | Dwayne | Allen | 2012--2016 | 199 | 126 | 19 | 9.5% |
5 | Joel | Dreessen | 2007--2013 | 223 | 153 | 19 | 8.5% |
6 | Kevin | Boss | 2007--2012 | 250 | 149 | 21 | 8.4% |
7 | Antonio | Gates | 2007--2016 | 944 | 632 | 77 | 8.2% |
8 | Anthony | Fasano | 2007--2016 | 436 | 272 | 35 | 8.0% |
9 | Donald | Lee | 2007--2011 | 192 | 145 | 15 | 7.8% |
10 | Zach | Miller | 2009--2016 | 168 | 126 | 13 | 7.7% |
11 | Jimmy | Graham | 2010--2016 | 763 | 498 | 59 | 7.7% |
12 | Richard | Rodgers | 2014--2016 | 161 | 108 | 12 | 7.5% |
13 | Visanthe | Shiancoe | 2007--2013 | 334 | 210 | 24 | 7.2% |
14 | Vernon | Davis | 2007--2016 | 762 | 485 | 54 | 7.1% |
15 | Kyle | Rudolph | 2011--2016 | 417 | 265 | 29 | 7.0% |
16 | Aaron | Hernandez | 2010--2012 | 260 | 175 | 18 | 6.9% |
17 | Dallas | Clark | 2007--2013 | 585 | 384 | 39 | 6.7% |
18 | Scott | Chandler | 2010--2015 | 317 | 205 | 21 | 6.6% |
19 | Jermichael | Finley | 2008--2013 | 321 | 223 | 20 | 6.2% |
20 | Jeff | Cumberland | 2010--2015 | 161 | 86 | 10 | 6.2% |
21 | Daniel | Fells | 2008--2015 | 178 | 113 | 11 | 6.2% |
22 | Jordan | Reed | 2013--2016 | 324 | 248 | 20 | 6.2% |
23 | Larry | Donnell | 2013--2016 | 159 | 107 | 9 | 5.7% |
24 | Garrett | Graham | 2011--2015 | 177 | 100 | 10 | 5.6% |
25 | Todd | Heap | 2007--2012 | 286 | 183 | 16 | 5.6% |
26 | Ben | Watson | 2007--2015 | 563 | 354 | 31 | 5.5% |
27 | Tony | Gonzalez | 2007--2013 | 912 | 602 | 50 | 5.5% |
28 | Jermaine | Gresham | 2010--2016 | 509 | 333 | 27 | 5.3% |
29 | Greg | Olsen | 2007--2016 | 1001 | 620 | 52 | 5.2% |
30 | Lance | Kendricks | 2011--2016 | 330 | 204 | 17 | 5.2% |
31 | Fred | Davis | 2008--2013 | 253 | 161 | 13 | 5.1% |
32 | Charles | Clay | 2011--2016 | 409 | 269 | 21 | 5.1% |
33 | Coby | Fleener | 2012--2016 | 392 | 233 | 20 | 5.1% |
34 | Brent | Celek | 2007--2016 | 593 | 385 | 30 | 5.1% |
35 | Martellus | Bennett | 2008--2016 | 596 | 403 | 30 | 5.0% |
36 | Gary | Barnidge | 2008--2016 | 285 | 178 | 14 | 4.9% |
37 | Delanie | Walker | 2007--2016 | 634 | 403 | 31 | 4.9% |
38 | Clay | Harbor | 2010--2016 | 166 | 114 | 8 | 4.8% |
39 | Heath | Miller | 2007--2015 | 713 | 517 | 34 | 4.8% |
40 | Daniel | Graham | 2007--2011 | 168 | 104 | 8 | 4.8% |
41 | Tony | Scheffler | 2007--2013 | 383 | 238 | 18 | 4.7% |
42 | Jordan | Cameron | 2011--2016 | 301 | 174 | 14 | 4.7% |
43 | Marcedes | Lewis | 2007--2016 | 583 | 338 | 27 | 4.6% |
44 | Jeff | King | 2007--2012 | 240 | 155 | 11 | 4.6% |
45 | Travis | Kelce | 2014--2016 | 307 | 224 | 14 | 4.6% |
46 | John | Carlson | 2008--2014 | 337 | 210 | 15 | 4.5% |
47 | Ed | Dickson | 2010--2016 | 249 | 148 | 11 | 4.4% |
48 | Owen | Daniels | 2007--2015 | 704 | 445 | 31 | 4.4% |
49 | Mychal | Rivera | 2013--2016 | 231 | 146 | 10 | 4.3% |
50 | Jason | Witten | 2007--2016 | 1175 | 837 | 49 | 4.2% |
51 | Dustin | Keller | 2008--2012 | 412 | 241 | 17 | 4.1% |
52 | Dante | Rosario | 2007--2014 | 199 | 116 | 8 | 4.0% |
53 | Desmond | Clark | 2007--2010 | 175 | 105 | 7 | 4.0% |
54 | Dennis | Pitta | 2010--2016 | 327 | 224 | 13 | 4.0% |
55 | Zach | Miller | 2007--2014 | 507 | 328 | 20 | 3.9% |
56 | Jeremy | Shockey | 2007--2011 | 353 | 233 | 13 | 3.7% |
57 | Jacob | Tamme | 2008--2016 | 386 | 257 | 14 | 3.6% |
58 | Zach | Ertz | 2013--2016 | 360 | 247 | 13 | 3.6% |
59 | Kellen | WinslowJr | 2007--2013 | 624 | 375 | 22 | 3.5% |
60 | Brandon | Pettigrew | 2009--2015 | 485 | 302 | 17 | 3.5% |
61 | Eric | Ebron | 2014--2016 | 201 | 133 | 7 | 3.5% |
62 | Chris | Cooley | 2007--2012 | 408 | 264 | 14 | 3.4% |
63 | Jared | Cook | 2009--2016 | 522 | 304 | 17 | 3.3% |
64 | Brandon | Myers | 2009--2016 | 293 | 199 | 9 | 3.1% |
65 | Bo | Scaife | 2007--2010 | 281 | 182 | 8 | 2.8% |
66 | Randy | McMichael | 2007--2012 | 234 | 143 | 6 | 2.6% |
67 | Rob | Housler | 2011--2015 | 175 | 109 | 1 | 0.6% |
Kelce is 6'5", 255 pounds. He runs fluid routes, is aggressive, and has good hands. There's no logical explanation for his touchdown woes. The most plausible explanation is Alex Smith. Smith's career touchdown rate is 3.8%. Kelce exceeds Smith's average TD-per-target rate, but just barely. Compare that to Rob Gronkowski (11.4% vs. Tom Brady's 5.5%) or Tyler Eifert (11.2% vs. Andy Dalton's 4.6%). Kelce doesn't garner a disproportionate amount of his team's scoring. He should. Can we expect positive mean regression, or is Kelce simply one of those players who doesn't produce in the end zone (a la Jason Witten)?
Projections
YEAR | G | REC | YD | TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | KC | 16 | 67 | 862 | 5 |
2015 | KC | 16 | 72 | 875 | 5 |
2016 | KC | 16 | 85 | 1125 | 4 |
2017 | PROJ-Dodds | 16 | 82 | 1033 | 7 |
2017 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 86 | 1090 | 5 |
2017 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 82 | 1050 | 6 |
2017 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 82 | 1004 | 5 |
Final Thoughts
Travis Kelce may be the best tight end in the NFL. Rob Gronkowski has the strongest claim to that title, but his injuries narrow the gap. Kelce is in his prime, has the perfect combination of size, speed, hands, and aggressiveness, and is coming off a #1 ranking season. Although the Chiefs offense is conservative and Alex Smith hampers the passing game, we know that Kelce can (and has) been the best fantasy option at his position with Smith under center. The Chiefs enter this season with an astoundingly inexperienced receiving corps, which guarantees Kelce targets in all game situations. Kelce is as sure a bet for 100+ targets and 1,000 yards as it gets at the position. If he manages to catch a few more touchdowns, Kelce could not only be a top-tier fantasy option; he could be a league winner.
Other Perspectives
4for4's John Paulsen gives his perspective on Kelce and Tyreek Hill:
"Both players saw a bump when Maclin was out, but Hill’s involvement basically doubled, as he saw twice as many targets and caught more than twice as many passes. Both players (weirdly) scored fewer touchdowns without Maclin, which indicates that their “without Maclin” upside is even higher as those touchdowns likely regress to the mean (i.e., increase)."
Matt Waldman views Kelce as one of the safest plays on the board:
"The Chiefs tight end may not be the best fantasy tight end contributing to a fantasy-rich offense, but he's among the safest. When it comes to the percentage of quarterback targets earned in an offense, Kelce has two of the top eight seasons for tight ends since 2012. Kelce also has three of the top seven seasons during that span for the percentage of quarterback passing yards. While touchdowns get headlines, yardage and targets have greater consistency. I also appreciate Kelce's track record of durability. Look for Kelce and Tyreek Hill to be atop Alex Smith's target totem once again."