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On Second Thought: Running Back Edition

A look at how our running back views have changed over the preseason

It's hard to believe that we're less than two weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season. For many fans, they're just now starting to pay attention. But for fantasy owners, for FOOTBALLGUYS, we're already many months into our preparation. As one of the contributors to the site's projections, I have had the entire league modeled and projected since late April. A LOT of things happen between then and the beginning of September. I, along with the other staff, tweak our projections and expectations in real-time. But it occurs to me that very little is ever said about the way our opinions change. This article, and others like it, will highlight qualitatively the assumptions that went into my initial projections that have since changed considerably. Enjoy.


On Second Thought...


Tevin Coleman (ATL) is a risky proposition as your RB2, even in PPR formats

Coleman ranked 18th last year, and initially, I projected him as a mid-tier RB2 particularly in PPR formats. The 3rd-year running back did nothing this preseason to sour me; it’s just that a more careful analysis of his 2016 achievements warranted caution. Coleman averaged better than 10 yards per reception last year, but nothing in his pedigree suggests he can maintain that level. He also averaged 4.5 yards per rush, and I was projecting nearly 5 yards per carry. Adjusting his “per touch” averages to more realistic levels puts Coleman as a fringe RB2 and an ideal RB3.

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