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Hello fellow fantasy football fanatics - welcome to the fourth installment of Old Dog Learns New Tricks.
Week 3 was a milestone for my Daily Fantasy Sports efforts as, after learning my lessons and taking some hard knocks in Weeks 1 and 2, I won 70% of the contests I joined during Week 3. Going seven-out-of-ten certainly made me feel better, especially when I looked at the three losses (in 50/50 leagues) and saw that I was within two points of cashing in two of those leagues as well - finishing 53rd and 62nd, respectively. If that idiot offensive lineman for Chicago had NOT drawn the hands to the face penalty that negated Brandon Marshall's TD catch, I would have finished in the money in those two leagues as well, therefore going nine-for-ten. But I'll take seven-out-of-ten any week and twice on Sundays.
Two of the Footballguys features that I relied on to help engineer the wins were Maurile Tremblay's FanDuel Variations and Kevin Cummings' FanDuel Bargain Buys (no URL available for Week 4 at the time I wrote this article). I don't slavishly follow the recommended lineups from Variations, but I do weight the advice heavily and use the three examples to cross-check my own conclusions - I was convinced to start Rashad Jennings based on the above sources last week and that certainly paid off for my set of rosters featuring him!
I did learn a new LESSON last week - LESSON THREE is to not act impulsively and switch out my lineups at the last second. When news broke that Bernard Pierce was inactive for Sunday, I rushed off and substituted Justin Forsett for Jennings in two of my 10 lineups - and guess what? Those were the two lineups that finished just outside of the money in my 50/50 leagues mentioned above - if I had left Jennings in those lineups, I would have cashed easily. Obviously, you should switch out players who are inactive but I switched out an active guy for a different guy due to a gameday lineup change, and it didn't serve me well. Oh well, live and learn.
Also, I broadened the pool of players under consideration last week - I was finding my initial guideline (to only consider players with good or great matchups) too constraining because I really liked Niles Paul at tight end for one of my three tight end spots, but he had a neutral passing matchup last week. So after much consideration I went with Paul anyway (and of course, WAS/PHI was a huge shootout last week, so it worked out). Henceforth, I'm going to give strong preference to players with good or great matchups, but I'm now willing to look at one or two guys per DFS lineup who are in neutral matchups during the current week. In other words, I am only disqualifying players from consideration when they are in tough or bad matchups, going forwards.
As I have mentioned previously, I write the weekly rushing and passing matchups around here - so one of my guideposts for DFS is to only consider players that do not have tough or bad matchups heading into Week 4. Looking at the matchups this week, the two most favorable pairings I see are:
1. Pittsburgh (TB at PIT): The Buccaneers were absolutely humiliated by the Falcons last week, while the Steelers won handily at Carolina (who have one of the toughest defenses in the NFL). This should be a cake walk for the Steelers so Le Pittsburgh's rushing attack is high on my list of DFS candidates (LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount). This is especially enticing because of the Steelers' formidable home field advantage.
2. San Diego (JAX at SD): As my good friend Sigmund Bloom said on twitter earlier in the week - this week, the San Diego Chargers get to feast on the fantasy football buffet that is the Jacksonville defense. Already the worst in the league entering Week 3, the Jaguars handed out an additional 44 points to the Colts (behind only the Falcons' 56 points during Week 3 vs Tampa Bay). To date, the Jaguars have given up 119 total points - that's all I really need to know to insert Philip Rivers in one of my DFS lineups.
As I will be taking breaking news and updated injury reports into consideration while crafting my Week 4 DFS squads right up until kickoff on Sunday (I am putting my own money on the line here, after all), I will post my Week 4 results and lineups in next week's edition of Old Dog Learns New Tricks. I hope that you, the reader, will check back in to see how a fellow DFS beginner fared in the fourth week of the 2014 season, along with sharing some thoughts about DFS in Week 5.
Good Luck everyone, I hope you win ALL your leagues this year!
Roster 1
Position | Player Name | Salary | % Owned | Points |
QB | Drew Brees | $9,100.00 | 33% | 19.52 |
RB | Alfred Morris | $7,600.00 | 8% | 7.7 |
RB | Giovani Bernard | $8,500.00 | 25% | 17.9 |
WR | Doug Baldwin | $4,500.00 | 1% | 7.6 |
WR | Reggie Wayne | $6,800.00 | 7% | 8.2 |
WR | Steve Smith | $6,200.00 | 7% | 12.6 |
TE | Martellus Bennett | $6,000.00 | 1% | 19.9 |
K | Randy Bullock | $4,900.00 | 1% | 5 |
D | Cincinnati Bengals | $5,300.00 | 4% | 12 |
Roster 2
Position | Player Name | Salary | % Owned | Points |
QB | Andrew Luck | $9,500.00 | 10% | 32.3 |
RB | Marshawn Lynch | $8,900.00 | 6% | 26.3 |
RB | Khiry Robinson | $4,700.00 | 22% | 6.9 |
WR | T.Y. Hilton | $6,500.00 | 6% | 10.5 |
WR | Andre Johnson | $7,100.00 | 6% | 4.4 |
WR | Sammy Watkins | $6,600.00 | 11% | 2.9 |
TE | Antonio Gates | $6,000.00 | 8% | 1.3 |
K | Stephen Gostkowski | $5,500.00 | 6% | 10 |
D | Philadelphia Eagles | $5,300.00 | 1% | 7 |
Roster 3
Position | Player Name | Salary | % Owned | Points |
QB | Jay Cutler | $8,100.00 | 14% | 16.4 |
RB | Rashad Jennings | $6,400.00 | 8% | 23.6 |
RB | DeMarco Murray | $8,700.00 | 37% | 19.1 |
WR | Brandon Marshall | $8,200.00 | 19% | 1.1 |
WR | Michael Crabtree | $6,500.00 | 4% | 19.4 |
WR | Percy Harvin | $7,700.00 | 5% | 7.7 |
TE | Niles Paul | $5,000.00 | 14% | 9.8 |
K | Dan Bailey | $5,400.00 | 2% | 11 |
D | Buffalo Bills | $5,200.00 | 1% | 3 |
Roster 3B
Position | Player Name | Salary | % Owned | Points |
QB | Jay Cutler | $8,100.00 | 14% | 16.4 |
RB | Justin Forsett | $5,200.00 | 4% | 8.5 |
RB | DeMarco Murray | $8,700.00 | 37% | 19.1 |
WR | Brandon Marshall | $8,200.00 | 19% | 1.1 |
WR | Michael Crabtree | $6,500.00 | 4% | 19.4 |
WR | Percy Harvin | $7,700.00 | 5% | 7.7 |
TE | Niles Paul | $5,000.00 | 14% | 9.8 |
K | Dan Bailey | $5,400.00 | 2% | 11 |
D | Buffalo Bills | $5,200.00 | 1% | 3 |