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Ryan Mathews (285/1,255/6 rushing with 26/189/1 receiving last season) is heading into the 2014 regular season as the top dog in the Chargers' running back stable - he is expected to star in a headlining role for San Diego this year. He looked good in the preseason opener, up until he lost the football at the goal line. However, head coach Mike McCoy dismissed the idea that the fumble would put Mathews' role as the lead back in jeopardy. "No, he's our bell cow," McCoy said. "He's jumped over the top a number of times and scored his entire career here. The safety put his head on the ball, and the ball came out, so that's all part of the game."
But what if the "bell cow" were to be sidelined for the 2014 season due to injury or suspension? How would the San Diego offense change - and how would those changes impact the fantasy output of the Chargers' running back stable. Read on below to see a picture of this scenario.
If Mathews were gone for the season, we'd likely see a committee of backs take center stage for the Chargers. Danny Woodhead (106/479/2 rushing with 76/605/6 receiving last season) is an excellent receiver, and Donald Brown (102/537/6 rushing with 27/214/2 receiving in Indianapolis last season) has found a new home in San Diego. As noted in the Footballguys.com Training Camp Report #2 "Danny Woodhead appeared to be in mid-season form [in the first preseason game] when he took a swing-pass for a 25-yard gain. Donald Brown rushed for 22 yards on three carries, showing the vision and balance that he's demonstrated throughout camp. One of the stars of the game for the Chargers was undrafted free-agent rookie Branden Oliver. Oliver had been turning heads in practice, and played in the game ahead of fifth-round pick Marion Grice. He was impressive. He rushed seven times for 64 yards (9.1 yards per carry) and a touchdown..." Oliver projects to seize the fourth running back slot on the team ahead of fellow rookie Marion Grice as of mid-August.
Without Mathews in the picture, Woodhead would handle almost all third down situations and obvious passing downs (he already does a lot of this for the team); Brown would likely be the first- and second-down back; and then we'd see Oliver sprinkled in as a change-of-pace player. The running backs would likely be as productive as ever - in aggregate - in this scenario, but with the numbers split up among more players.
BUY
This would depend on the scoring paradigm of your fantasy league - Woodhead would likely have even more value in a PPR league than before, but Brown would have more rushes/opportunities as the first- and second-down back. As I often note, even though their owners would be unlikely to give up either guy in the event of a Mathews injury/suspension, you never know until you ask.
HOLD
Everyone on the offense you've already rostered (excepting Mathews), especially Woodhead and Brown - Mathews is talented, but the Chargers' stable of backs is deep enough to take up the slack if he is out for an extended period of time. His loss wouldn't cripple this attack.
ADD
Oliver would be worth picking up off the waiver wire as insurance for Brown/as a lottery ticket for later in the season. The NFL season is long and arduous, and Oliver's NFL opportunity might come sooner rather than later.
SELL
None - unless you get an "offer you can't refuse" with enough players to put your team over the top during fantasy playoffs. IF you have enough depth ahead of Woodhead or Brown, don't be afraid to make a deal that benefits your team.