Wes Welker had over 100 receptions per year for five of his six years in New England. He is a likely Hall of Fame wide receiver who has been a rock for his fantasy owners. When he relocated to Denver for the 2013 season, to play with the one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL, he seemed like a lock for another stellar fantasy season - and he did set a career high with 10 touchdowns during regular season, his first season in double-digits in this category. However, in the new team dynamic of Denver, Welker was not the primary receiver - that distinction clearly belongs to Demaryius Thomas (142 targets for 92/1,430/14 receiving last year, compared to Welker's 111 targets for 73/778/10 receiving during 2013) - and the drop-off in targets for Welker led to his first sub-1,000 yards receiving season since 2010. As touchdown catches per player are highly variable from year to year in even the most explosive passing attacks, the drop-off in targets and receptions going Welkers' way is a big red flag for fantasy owners heading into the 2014 season. There are also other factors in play here, with Eric Decker departing for the New York Jets (and other personnel moves), and a troubling series of concussions that impacted Welker during the final month of the 2013 season. Let's take a closer look at all these dynamics as we analyze Welkers fantasy prospects for 2014.
First of all, looking strictly at the numbers for Welker over the last three years, we can see a deep decline in his targets and receptions in Denver during 2013 over his results in New England the previous two years. Adjusting to a per game basis to account for the three games Welker missed last year (more on that below), in 2011 Welker played 16 games for the Patriots, seeing an average of 11.75 targets and 7.63 receptions per game - basically 12 targets and 7-8 receptions per game (188 targets for 122/1,569/9 receiving). During 2012 he again enjoyed 11.75 targets per game with 7.38 receptions per game - again, in the range of 12 targets and 7-8 receptions per contest, on average (188 targets for 118/1,354/6 receiving). Last season in Denver, Welker averaged 8.54 targets per game and 5.62 receptions per game - 8-9 passes and 5-6 receptions per contest. In addition, Welker's average yards per reception declined from 12.9 in 2011 to 11.5 in 2012 and then finally 10.7 yards per catch during 2013. The bottom line here is that Welker is seeing less opportunities and receptions - about 25% less - to catch the football in Denver, and he did less with the receptions that he did make last season compared to his final years in New England.
Free agency did significantly shuffle the deck in Denver, seeing Eric Decker (136 targets for 87/1,288/11 during 2013) depart for the Jets, while Emmanuel Sanders arrived via free agency from Pittsburgh (112 targets for 67/740/6 last year), and the Broncos drafted Cody Latimer (the Broncos moved up to the second round to nab Latimer at #56 overall, but have been limiting his reps in spring OTAs due to a foot surgery on January 19). The early word is that Sanders has looked good during OTAs and is putting in “extra time” with Peyton Manning learning Manning's route tree. It remains to be seen how Sanders' arrival and Decker's departure will shake up the depth chart, but there is clearly and opportunity for Welker to pick up some of the targets that Decker has left behind when he exited to New York. However, the Broncos are also loaded at tight end with Julius Thomas, Jacob Tamme and Virgil Green all vying for targets with the wide receivers - there is a lot of mouths for Manning to feed out in Denver, friends.
Over the past decade, the NFL has become increasingly sensitive to the issue of player brain trauma (concussions) and Welker had a prior history of concussions prior to arriving in Denver, and he suffered a Week 14, 2013 concussion that kept him sidelined until the playoffs (it was his second concussion of the 2014 season, both suffered within one month of each other). Welker wore a special oversized helmet and a custom mouthpiece during the playoffs to minimize his chances of a third/repeat concussion. He played throughout he playoffs, including a 8/84/0 performance in the Super Bowl, following 4/38/0 in the AFC Title game vs. his old team New England, and 6/38/1 receiving in the divisional round contest vs. San Diego. Prior to the Divisonal round, he stated on January 2, 2014: "It took a little bit of time. Even when I felt I was 100 percent, looking back you weren't 100 percent. It's always a tricky injury and just trying to manage it and everything else, but the doctors and trainers did a great job of just doing the things necessary to get me back out on the field."
Given the sensitivity of the league to concussions and the complexities of the treatment protocols that the NFL has instituted to address the issue of brain traumas, fantasy owners must consider the 33-year old Welker at a higher risk than younger, non-concussed players to miss significant time during the 2014 season. It is impossible to predict if Welker will actually suffer a repeat concussion(s), but he is a more risky fantasy proposition entering 2014 due to the events that occurred at the end of the 2013 season.
POSITIVES
- Eric Decker is in New York now, freeing up some targets for Welker to accumulate
- Welker plays on the most explosive passing offense in the NFL - and he is in his second year in Denver, so he should be more comfortable in the Bronco's offense
- Welker is a deeply experienced veteran who should still be a favorite target of Peyton Manning
NEGATIVES
- Emmanuel Sanders arrived via free agency and he may challenge Welker for targets during 2014
- Welker is 33 now, well past the "30 years old" wall - a precipitous decline is possible, especially if he suffers another concussion this year
- Demaryius Thomas is entrenched as the #1 wide receiver in Denver - it appears that Welker's days of being featured in a passing attack are behind him.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Given all the above, it is my opinion that Welker has passed the point where one can reasonably expect over 100 receptions per year - he is now firmly in the shadow of Demaryius Thomas, and could be pushed to third wideout if Sanders excels during training camp. I think 70-80 receptions per year is Welker's ceiling going into the 2014 season (barring a repeat brain trauma), which would produce somewhere in the neighborhood of 700-850 yards receiving and touchdowns in the mid-single-digits. He is a third fantasy wideout this year, at best.
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | NE | 16 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 188 | 122 | 1569 | 9 | |
2012 | NE | 16 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 188 | 118 | 1354 | 6 | |
2013 | DEN | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 73 | 778 | 10 | 1 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 855 | 8 | 1 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 800 | 7 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 800 | 8 | 0 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 81 | 954 | 8 | 1 |