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Adrian Peterson enters 2014 on a Vikings team that is in the process of reformulating their offense (again). However, sometimes change is for the better and nobody can argue with Norv Turner's track record as an offensive coordinator in the NFL. Turner has indicated that he intends to get Peterson even more involved in the passing game this year, and the list of distinguished dual-threat fantasy backs that Turner's offenses/coaching have produced over the years includes Emmitt Smith (283/1,486/9 rushing with 57/414/1 receiving with Turner during 1993) and LaDainian Tomlinson (315/1,474/15 rushing and 60/475/3 receiving with Turner during 2007). As hard as it is to believe, Peterson may be even more central to the Vikings' offense this year than in years past!
The failure of 2011 first-round pick Christian Ponder to perform at the NFL level forced the Vikings to expend another premium draft pick on a quarterback this year - this time they used the 32nd pick in the first round to snag Teddy Bridgewater as their new quarterback of the future. Waiting in the wings is veteran Matt Cassel, who definitely outplayed Ponder last season, but who remains nothing more than a journeyman-level NFL quarterback. In short, the Vikings' passing offense isn't likely to win the team a lot of games this year, whether it is Bridgewater learning on the job from Turner or Cassel in a care-taker role.
The question is, does any of the turmoil at quarterback really matter when it comes to Peterson's fantasy prospects? During 2012, when Peterson wowed the fantasy world with 348/2,097/12 rushing and saw 54 targets for 40/217/1 receiving, Ponder was bumbling his way to a singularly unimpressive 300/483 for 2,935 yards passing, 18 TDs and 12 interceptions thrown over 16 games played (with 60/253/2 rushing for Ponder). Nobody was scared of the Vikings' passing attack during 2012, yet Peterson came off a catastrophic knee injury (torn ACL and MCL) suffered December 24, 2011 and put up his finest season to date, starting a mere nine months after the knee injury.
Folks, over the years I have watched a lot of extremely talented running backs post incredible seasons - Smith, Tomlinson, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, to name just a few - but none of them have ever reached the phenomenal level of production that we witnessed from Peterson during 2012, under such adverse conditions (Peterson played through a painful groin injury for most of the 2012 season before having it surgically repaired early in 2013). I think that Peterson is one of the incredibly rare generational talents that very occassionally appear in the NFL - a player like Jerry Rice or Tony Gonzalez, who are widely acknowledged as one of the best players to ever play at their position, regardless of era. Given that Peterson, through a combination of talent, hard work, and pain tolerance, is able to transcend limits and will himself to greatness, the great difficulty of analyzing his prospects for 2014 is to recognize that no matter where we set a "likely" bar for him to achieve, Peterson has the potential to vastly exceed expectations. If the Vikings' surrounding offense is merely competent this year, with average play along the offensive line, Peterson's ceiling is extremely high - somewhere in the incredible 140-150 yards combined per game range that we saw from Peterson during the 2012 season. There are few running backs who can consistently achieve the kind of results that Peterson can post.
Understanding the above, one can see why I have Peterson ranked as the #1 fantasy running back heading into the 2014 season.
Some concerns regarding Peterson heading into 2014 grow from the unsettled situation on the passing offense - last year the sitution was putrid (23rd in passing yards and 27th in passing TDs in the league), and Peterson was held to a more-modest 279/1,266/10 rushing and 40 targets for 29/171/1 receiving over 14 games played. If Bridgewater flops spectacularly or Cassel falls apart, teams will be able to key on Peterson and it is very tough to break out of eight-man boxes at this level. Another concern regarding Peterson is due to his continuing issue with the groin injury (Peterson had a clean-up procedure early in this calendar year to remove scar tissue in his groin from the 2013 surgical repair). Also, Peterson is 29 this year, steadily heading towards the dreaded 30-years-old wall where many players' recuperative powers start to taper off - think Steven Jackson in Atlanta last year (Jackson was 30 when the 2013 season started, promptly suffered a thigh/hamstring soft-tissue injury and never really recovered his top form until very late in the year). Peterson has compiled 2,035 carries and 206 receptions over his seven-year career, which translates to a lot of wear-and-tear on his frame.
POSITIVES
- Peterson is going to be the focal point of the Vikings offense again this year - he is one of a handful of true "featured" running backs in the NFL and may see even more passes than in years past playing in Norv Turner's offensive scheme
- Peterson has the ability to explode for dominant seasons, as we saw from him during 2012 and also 2008 (363/1,760/10 rushing with 21/125/0 receiving)
- Peterson is a seasoned, veteran player who knows how to take advantage of his blockers and how to read/respond to intricate NFL defenses
- Toby Gerhart is now in Jacksonville as their starter, leaving Peterson even more firmly atop the depth chart entering 2014 than he was entering 2013
NEGATIVES
- Peterson is getting older and has a lot of milage on his tires which may translate into more nagging injury concerns during 2014
- The Vikings' offense is in transition (again) and the turmoil could adversely affect the entire unit, especially during the first weeks of 2014
- Peterson had further groin surgery during the offseason which indicates an ongoing concern in that region
FINAL THOUGHTS
A person can always find potential negatives about a particular NFL team or player. However, given the overall package of world-class talent, hard work, and high pain threshold that Adrian Peterson has displayed thus far during his NFL career, I think it is a losing proposition to bet against his continued dominance as a real-world NFL running back and as an elite fantasy running back. You could do a lot worse than to make Peterson your #1 selection in this year's fantasy draft. He's as close to a "safe" first-round pick as you are likely to find in the talent pool this season.
PROJECTIONS:
YEAR | G | RSH | YD | TD | TARG | REC | YD | TD | FumL | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | MIN | 12 | 209 | 973 | 12 | 23 | 18 | 139 | 1 | |
2012 | MIN | 16 | 348 | 2097 | 12 | 54 | 40 | 217 | 1 | |
2013 | MIN | 14 | 279 | 1266 | 10 | 40 | 29 | 171 | 1 | 3 |
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 15 | 290 | 1349 | 12 | 31 | 211 | 1 | 3 | |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 15 | 300 | 1380 | 12 | 42 | 290 | 1 | 3 | |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 320 | 1450 | 13 | 35 | 230 | 1 | 2 | |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 292 | 1336 | 9 | 36 | 258 | 1 | 4 |