Eric Ebron joins the Lions as they undergo the transition from the Jim Schwartz/Scott Linehan era to the coaching regime of head coach Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Caldwell is a noted quarterback coach who helped Peyton Manning produce some of the most outstanding seasons in NFL history (Manning won all four of his NFL MVP awards while being coached by Caldwell during 2003, 2004, 2008, and 2009), and Caldwell also helped Joe Flacco pilot a win in the Super Bowl and a Super Bowl MVP award during Super Bowl XLVII. Suffice it to say that Caldwell and Lombardi are going to efficiently utilize the outstanding collection of talent that Detroit has built around Matthew Stafford over the past five years. Stafford and company should remain among the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL under the new coaching regime, which augers well for Ebron's fantasy prospects during 2014.
Looking specifically at the situation at tight end, it is clear the new regime wanted a better alternative at tight end than Brandon Pettigrew currently provides. Pettigrew began his career with two solid seasons during 2010 (110 targets for 71/722/4 receiving) and 2011 (130 for 83/777/5) but he has since tailed off significantly (102 targets for 59/565/3 receiving during 2012 and 63 for 41/416/2 last season). Ebron arrived as the tenth pick in this year's NFL Draft - he should be on the fast-track to number one on the tight end depth chart as the premium draft selection during the first year of the new coaching organization.
Joseph Fauria enjoyed a bonanza of TDs during Pettigrew's massive slump last year (30 targets for 18/207/7 accruing to Fauria), but very, very rarely can 38.9% of a player's receptions amount to touch downs in this league - Fauria had great red-zone presence last year in very limited opportunities, but an undrafted free agent such as Fauria is unlikely to be a roadblock for a high-dollar, top-10 draft selection when it comes to the depth chart/distribution of passes.
In short, the veteran tight ends on the Lions' roster competing with Ebron entering 2014 are not significant barriers to Ebron becoming Stafford's favorite target at tight end, in my opinion. I expect Ebron to prove his worth very early during the season, and to ascend to the top spot on the depth chart by mid-season.
During coach Caldwell's partial season as offensive coordinator in Baltimore (2012), Dennis Pitta led the Ravens' tight ends with 101 targets for 61/669/7. Looking back at Dallas Clark's career in Indianapolis (after his counterpart Marcus Pollard moved on to Detroit for the 2005 season), in the last season of the Tony Dungy era during 2008, Clark led all tight ends in Indianapolis with 107 targets for 77/848/6 receiving, and then in the first season of Jim Caldwell's head coaching reign Clark jumped up to a career-best 132 targets for 100/1,106/10 receiving. While Clark was an established veteran during 2009 rather than a rookie talent like Ebron, the ceiling for a tight end on a Caldwell-coached squad is clearly very high.
Ebron enjoys a favorable situation in Detroit as detailed above, and he also has the talent and skills to capitalize on his opportunity. As fellow Footballguy and NFL Draft guru Matt Waldman notes in his 2014 Rookie Scouting Portfolio:
"Ebron's size, speed, agility, and hands are all NFL-caliber. He can generate big plays on intermediate and deep routes or use his ahtleticism to take a short pass for a long gain. He can catch the ball with his hands away from his body and sometimes makes difficult adjustments to the ball when throw high, in tight coverage, or on targets away from his body. He can take a hit and hold onto the ball."
Ebron needs to improve on his reception rate when going for contested passes, and his ball security is sometimes a concern, according to Waldman. For a full assessment of Ebron's game, check out Waldmans' section on tight ends in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio.
I believe the flaws in Ebron's game can be overcome through solid coaching and practice at the next (NFL) level, which is something I think Ebron will receive in plenty under the tutelage of coaches Caldwell, Lombardi, and assistant head coach/tight ends coach Ron Prince. Given that the Lions invested a top-10 selection in Ebron, he'll get all the attention he needs from the staff to help him improve.
POSITIVES
- Ebron is a highly-regarded draft pick who commanded a top-10 selection - he should see the field sooner rather than later
- Ebron has the talent to take over the top spot in the tight end stable
- The history of tight ends on Caldwell-coached squads displays ample opportunity for players at the position
NEGATIVES
- Ebron is a rookie who has a steep learning curve in front of him
- Fauria may siphon off some red-zone opportunities from Ebron, as Fauria displayed a good knack for scoring last year
- The Lions' offense is in transition from one coaching staff to another - they may have issues assimilating the new system which could lead to a slow start to their 2014 season
FINAL THOUGHTS
While Ebron should have a bright future ahead of him as a #1 fantasy tight end, he is entering his rookie season at the NFL level. I think a more appropriate expectation for his overall 2014 performance is somewhere on the cusp between a starting fantasy tight end and a solid backup - he sits at 16th on my tight ends' rankings as of late July. I think he's an excellent selection as your backup fantasy tight end, with the potential to develop into a starter by the second half of the season this year (likely after the Lions' week nine bye).
PROJECTIONS
YEAR | G | REC | YD | TD | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | PROJ-Dodds | 16 | 45 | 540 | 4 |
2014 | PROJ-Henry | 16 | 48 | 600 | 5 |
2014 | PROJ-Wood | 16 | 40 | 525 | 4 |
2014 | PROJ-Tremblay | 16 | 53 | 555 | 4 |
Mark Wimer's Projections: 85 targets for 60/650/6 receiving
THOUGHTS FROM AROUND THE WEB
Mike Clay thinks Ebron will break out in 2015:
The tenth overall pick in May’s draft, Eric Ebron has the size and receiving skills to produce at a TE1 level over the next decade. Landing in Detroit only helps his prospects. Brandon Pettigrew will surely lower Ebron’s short-term ceiling, but the team is wide receiver deficient, which will allow the rookie to step right into a prominent role in passing downs. Ebron isn’t a finished product, but he’s only 21 and doesn’t have to be rushed into an every-down role. Expect a breakout season in 2015.
Steve Schwarz of SportsNetwork.com wonders what fantasy owners see in Ebron:
Ebron faces plenty of challenges before he'll be a starting fantasy tight end. The Lions just paid TE Brandon Pettigrew a bushel of money over the winter and still have Joseph Fauria (seven touchdowns) on the roster. They also added Golden Tate on the outside to go with the best receiver in football, Calvin Johnson. Given these parameters, it's hard to see what fantasy owners are thinking by drafting Ebron this high.