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Cecil Shorts has arguably been the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal Jaguars passing game in recent years. The 6'0", 205 lbs. receiver runs crisp routes and has shown an ability to make tough catches in traffic. In spite of his talents, and clear position as the Jaguars' #1 receiver, Shorts has dealt with his share of injuries and is currently dealing with a Grade-2 hamstring strain. There is some concern that an injury to Shorts would derail the young Jaguars rebuilding project -- since he's perceived as the only sure bet. But let's examine that consideration a bit closer.
Point 1) Shorts' absence hasn't mattered much over the last two years
In games w/ Shorts -- 215 passing yards, 79 rushing yards, 1.5 turnovers, 1.2 pass TDs, 0.4 rush TDs
In games without/Shorts -- 213 passing yards, 92 rushing yards, 2.1 turnovers, 1.0 pass TDs, 0.4 rush TDs
Point 2) Shorts was the best house in a bad neighborhood
Shorts' numbers were good, but never stellar and most analysts have always felt Shorts was better suited as a complementary weapon. He is miscast as the #1, and the Jaguars made the receiver spot a focus in the April draft -- using both 2nd round selections on receivers Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson.
Without further ado, WHAT HAPPENS TO THE fantasy prospects for Jacksonville if Cecil Shorts is lost for the season?
BUY
NO ONE -- In 10- and 12-team redraft leagues, the answer is probably NO ONE. The Jaguars have the makings of one of the least producive passing games in football -- with or without Shorts. Marqise Lee doesn't rank here because he's already being drafted, and Allen Robinson hasn't been able to stay on the field in training camp due to his own injuries. Robinson, Mike Brown and Ace Sanders would be worth keeping an eye on, particularly in deeper leagues, but they would be a wait-and-see regardless of whether Shorts is healthy or not.
HOLD
RB Toby Gerhart -- Gerhart was brought in to be the focal point of the Jaguars offense, and that plan won't change without Shorts. For those concerned that Shorts' absence would allow defenses to stack the line, you have to remember that Shorts wasn't a vertical threat. He didn't stretch the defense, he helped sustain drives and made plays with the ball in his hands. Gerhart's fate is more about whether the rebuilt offensive line can open holes and Gerhart can stay healthy. His fantasy value is tied into his VOLUME, not the attractiveness of his supporting cast.
WR Marqise Lee -- Lee is currently the 62nd WR off the board, which equate to a late round, end of roster, player in standard-sized leagues. The Jaguars are counting on immediate contributions from Lee who they believe has the ability to be the #1 eventually, allowing Shorts to play his more natural role. Lee has had an up-and-down preseason, but scored a touchdown against the Bears 1st team defense in the 2nd preseason game. Needless to say, if you rostered Lee and Shorts gets hurt, you want to hold onto him because he'll be force fed the ball.
SELL
NO ONE
ADD
Allen Robinson, Mike Brown and/or Ace Sanders (with a caveat) -- Robinson hasn't been healthy and Ace Sanders faces a 4-game suspension and took a leave of absence for 'personal reasons.' Neither should be picked up simply because Shorts is gone. But, if they both get past their respective issues and are getting snaps regularly, it would THEN be worth consideration as they step into a possible starting role. Temper expectations and view them as low end flex options, even with Shorts injured. Brown is getting first team reps in Shorts' and Sanders' absences, and could surprise if he maintains his current trajectory.
DROP
Blake Bortles and Chad Henne -- Neither quarterback is going drafted in 10- and 12-team leagues, on average, but part of that is because we're not yet sure who gets the Week One start. Losing Shorts wouldn't be a good thing for either, and since they rank outside the Top 20 at the position with or without Shorts, anyone that has them as a desperation QB2 should drop them and scour the waiver wire for an alternative.