HOW A Ball INJURY IMPACTS THE BroncoS
Montee Ball will miss the preseason due to an appendectomy. Although the Broncos expect Ball to return for the season opener, there will be lingering questions about Ball's conditioning. Players that miss the rigors of training camp can be susceptible to muscle strains and tears.
A major form of these injuries can sideline a player for significant parts of the season, hurting his production even when he returns to the field. However, a minor injury can also cause a player to overcompensate with his movements to protect the issue. The blowback of this overcompensation can be the development of a major joint issue.
These are the ranges of concerns that some will have with Ball missing a month prior to the season. Ball is the best all-around running back on the Broncos roster and he had improved his third-down skills during the off season.
If Ball misses significant time during the season the Broncos offense is a dream scenario for a running back. Quarterback Peyton Manning is so skilled that defenses rarely crowd the box to stop the run.
It allows Manning to find juicy matchups for the ground game that benefits the runner. Any decent pro-caliber runner will generate at least RB2 fantasy performances on the ground against most NFL defenses with Manning as his quarterback.
However, there is a barrier to entry for just any running back to enter Denver's lineup and earn the fruits of Manning's labors. The Broncos have a heightened concern about pass protection with its elder statesman quarterback at time where the organization is in the middle of its championship window. One of the reasons that Ball was not an instant impact rookie in 2013 was the time he needed to pick up the pass protection scheme and improve his receiving.
At the same time, Manning is a smart enough quarterback to manipulate his alignments to account for some weaknesses of his running backs on passing downs -- but it's not a skill any team wants to lean on too much. If Ball is gone for a significant amount of time Denver's passing game is strong enough to create running lanes for any of its backs on running downs because defenses are still on heightened alert for the pass in a Manning-led offense.
Even so, the Broncos are so strong as a passing team that it needs to, it can temporarily duck the issue of pass protection from the backfield against a lot of defenses by spreading the field with 4-5 capable receivers and use short passes as a run game substitute. At worst, the offense can get inventive and use an extra TE as an H-Back or an extra blocker instead of his running backs.
BUY
RB Ronnie Hillman - The young runner has shown flashes of big-play ability, but difficulty maintaining his playing weight and possession of the ball were reasons why the Broncos drafted Ball. The reports from training camp indicate that Hillman looks better than ever, the coaches are giving him a clean slate, and he's maintaining a reasonable weight that won't generate questions about him being an every-down back in a pass-first offense. Hillman has Tiki Barber potential long-term, but the biggest question is if he can make the transition from training camp star who looks good in practice to regular season contributor who performs well in front of crowds.
RB C.J. Anderson - If Hillman once again blows his opportunity during the season, second-year back C.J. Anderson is equipped to take the job and become a quality fantasy RB2 with upside in this Broncos' scheme. He's a talented three-down back with a low center of gravity, patience between the tackles, and he's capable of making a strong lateral cut to get down hill or address penetration into the backfield. Anderson impressed the Broncos so much as a UDFA in 2013 that a mid-preseason injury forced Denver's hand and they worked hard to keep Anderson on the team despite the runner requiring rehab time for several weeks during the season. Anderson has the skills to earn red zone duty and eventually beat Hillman straight-up if Hillman falters yet again. Anderson's concussion may lower his ADP to the point that he's a waiver wire option in your league and therefore also qualifies as an "Add"
HOLD
WR Wes Welker - There's talk from Broncos camp that Welker will leave the field in some multiple receiver sets and Emmanuel Sanders and/or rookie Cody Latimer will take his place. If Denver's ground game falters, the Broncos could opt to spread the field with its talented crew of receivers and use the short passing game more often as a run substitute. Expect Welker to be prominently involved if this is the case.
WR Emmanuel Sanders - The free agent addition from Pittsburgh is a fine runner after the catch. He's not as dynamic as former teammate Antonio Brown, but he's fast, physical for his size, and shifty. Look for Sanders to be the primary run-substitute in the middle of the field in three-receiver sets if Denver opts for short passing to account for any run game struggles.
WR Demaryius Thomas - Denver already feeds Thomas a routine diet of WR screens and crossing routes. Look for it to continue regardless of the ground game.
TE Julius Thomas - Tight ends and running backs often complement each other in the offense with run and play action passing. If the ground game falters, we could see less of this. At the same time, we could also see more spread formations and less of Thomas on the field. I think this scenario is doubtful. Thomas is primarily a move tight end and he'll be split from the formation in empty sets to draw matchup advantages. He'll remain a viable fantasy option.
SELL
Ronnie Hillman: Yes, the runner is also listed as a "buy," but it's good to think about alternate strategies and Hillman qualifies as both a "buy" and a "buy-low, sell-high" option. Remember, football is a performance in front of an audience and some football players have difficulty making this transtion to the larger stage. If you're skeptical of Hillman, he's worth drafting late to sell high. I'm an optimist that Hillman just needed additional maturation time to become a quality professional on and off the field, but I'm also a realist that Hillman could wind up a big-play role player who isn't an every-down starter and more of a fantasy flex-option paired with the back listed below.
Add
RB C.J. Anderson - If Hillman once again blows his opportunity during the season, second-year back C.J. Anderson is equipped to take the job and become a quality fantasy RB2 with upside in this Broncos' scheme. He's a talented three-down back with a low center of gravity, patience between the tackles, and he's capable of making a strong lateral cut to get downhill or address penetration into the backfield. Anderson impressed the Broncos so much as a UDFA in 2013 that a mid-preseason injury forced Denver's hand and they worked hard to keep Anderson on the team despite the runner requiring rehab time for several weeks during the season. Anderson has the skills to earn red zone duty and eventually beat Hillman straight-up if Hillman falters yet again. Anderson's concussion may lower his ADP to the point that he's a waiver wire option in your league and therefore also qualifies as an "Add"
RB Juwon Thompson - The former runner from Duke has experience as a pass protector in the Blue Devil's high-octane attack and he has the size (225 pounds) to grind it between the tackles. He's a player to monitor if the Broncos depth chart gets thin.
RB Brendan Clay - The rookie from Oklahoma as a RB/FB tweener with good third down skills that should only get better as he transitions to the pro game. He's a player to monitor if Hillman and Anderson falter.
WR Cody Latimer - If HIllman or Anderson falter, the Broncos could opt to spread the field and use the short passing game as its substtitute for many run plays. Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and and Emmanuel Sanders naturally qualify as options to execute these plays. However, Welker is older and oft-concussed, and Sanders has seen his share of early-career injuries. It makes the rookie Latimer a quality addition from the waiver wire. Many competitive leagues will have owners that draft Latimer, but they might drop him because of other needs. Other quality leagues may leave Latimer on the waiver wire due to roster size. Either way, Latimer is a receiver to monitor because he's big, fast, a great leaper, and powerful after the catch. Latimer is making excellent plays in camp and both Manning and Brock Osweiller are showing confidence to target Latimer in tight, physical coverage. Latimer will be a good fantasy option for years to come. If the conditions are right, Latimer's blossoming could come this year as a fantasy flex-option making big plays in Denver's receiver-heavy sets.
Drop
No one.