Wes Welker has been a fantasy stalwart the past seven seasons, notching over 100 receptions five times in that span. Welker is again slotted to be one of the primary targets for Peyton Manning in the powerful Broncos passing offense after scoring 10 touchdowns in just 13 games in 2013.
Welker is also at a higher than average risk of injury however due to three factors. First, he has had multiple concussions (including a relatively serious one causing him to miss extended action) and thus is at a higher risk for future concussions. Second, his role in the offense calls for him to patrol the middle of the field on a regular basis. Though the NFL's rule changes have taken some of the big hits out of the game, this is still one of the more dangerous ways to make a living in the NFL. Lastly, Welker turned 33 this spring and as players age, they generally become more susceptible to lingering injuries.
What would the happen should Wes Welker go down to injury in 2014?
buy
Emmanuel Sanders- Should Welker go down, Sanders would likely vault up towards top 15 WR status. Sanders and Welker are the two passing targets in Denver best equipped to run the short, precision routes that Peyton Manning executes as well as anyone in the game. It appears the Broncos are currently planning on using Sanders all over the field with a number of different route concepts to take advantage of his speed and route running acumen. Sanders is already a strong fantasy option. A Welker injury probably increases his expected targets by a couple per game as he will become the go to underneath WR.
Cody Latimer- The rookie 2nd rounder out of Indiana is a favorite of most of the talent evaluators on the Footballguys staff. His combination of size, speed and hands make him a very intriguing long term option. In the shorter term, he is currently sitting fourth in the Broncos WR pecking order which likely limits his immediate fantasty contributions. However, Latimer is just the type of talented player that could take an injury to any of the top three WRs and run with it in a big way. A Welker injury likely pushes Sanders into the slot most of the time with Latimer taking over as the 2nd outside WR opposite of Demaryius Thomas. Latimer's size and skills would make him a huge red zone threat and he could end up being a fantasy difference maker should Welker go down to injury in 2014.
hold
Peyton Manning- Manning did not slow down his record breaking pace at all when Welker missed the final three games of the 2013 season. In those three games, Manning threw for 955 yards and 10 touchdowns. In fact, Manning did that damage in less than 3 full games as he sat out the 2nd half of the week 17 matchup ceding control of the offense to Brock Osweiler (who added another 85 yards through the air). The Broncos receiving corp is so deep and Manning so talented that his production should be immune to the loss of a player like Welker.
Demaryius Thomas- In the three games without Welker last season, Thomas produced 18 receptions, 281 yards and 3 touchdowns. While those number sound pretty monstrous, they were essentially par for the course in terms of Thomas' huge 2013 season overall. As the top target in the Broncos offense, Thomas should get his opportunities regardless of who else is on the field and an injury to a fellow receiver should neither harm nor help his production. This is especially true in the case of a WR like Welker who works primarily out of the slot and runs an entirely different set of routes than does Thomas.
Julius Thomas- It would be tempting to assume that Julius Thomas would be a beneficiary of Welker's offense. After all, the TE normally works similar areas of the field as the slot WR. However, Thomas is more like a big WR playing TE. He is just as likely to catch the ball deep down the field near the sideline as he is on a shorter route over the middle. The numbers back this up as Thomas 15 catches, 163 yards and 1 touchdown in the 3 games minus Welker were just slightly below his full season pace.
Montee Ball- For a typical offense, losing a top WR would lead to an increased reliance upon the run game. However, the Broncos are no typical team. As discussed previously, the expectation would be that Peyton Manning and the Denver passing attack, deep with dangerous weapons, would charge on essentially undiminshed by Welker's absence. If that is the case, it makes no sense to assume that the team would choose to lean any more heavily upon the rushing game. It is possible that Ball would receive a tiny bump in target percentage and add a reception or two to his season totals, but the impact is not significant enough to change his outlook in any material manner.
sell
None. A Welker injury would conceivably harm Peyton Manning's numbers a small amount but would not significantly harm any other member of the Broncos offense.
ADD
Andre Caldwell- The prime beneficiary of Welker's absense last year was Andre Caldwell who took over as the 3rd WR in the Broncos offense. He came out of the gate in Welker's first game missed with a big week 15 performace in which he totaled 6 catches, 59 yards and 2 touchdowns. Caldwell was essentially a non-factor in the final two games however with a total of 5 catches and 54 yards. In addition, he is less likely to see as big of a bump in production this season with the addition of rookie Cody Latimer who has already supplanted Caldwell as the #4 WR in the Broncos offense. Still, a Welker injury would bump Caldwell from 5th up to 4th and he would be an intriguing speculative addition for a team desperate for WR production.
drop
None. The Broncos offense is a finely tuned machine and Welker's loss would not hurt the stock of any player enough to consider dropping.
