1. Pats offense: softening man coverage with motion
This is the same thing I've pasted into the Top 10 for several weeks. Looking back, that's been good news for those of you applying my theory that the supporting cast of the Patriots offense (players not named Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and LeGarrette Blount) had advantageous fantasy matchups based on the basic style of man or zone defense of its opponents.
The bad news is that the theory fell apart against the 49ers. Because San Francisco plays a lot of man coverage, I expected a good week from Martellus Bennett and down weeks for Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and James White.
Injuries were one reason for the theory not working out for the first time. Chris Hogan has been a successful receiver versus man coverage, but he missed the week with an injury. So did Rob Gronkowski. These two options missing the game, the return of Dion Lewis and more snaps for rookie Malcolm Mitchell changed the dynamic I had been leaning on since Week 5 or 6.
It was a good run. While I don't know if I'm going to toss the whole idea away, the influx of new personnel has me wanting to examine the Jets game before predicting these supporting matchups for the stretch run.
One cool thing that caught my eye from the 49ers game is New England's use of motion to create favorable matchups against man coverage. This could make players like Edelman and Mitchell better options against man coverage regardless of what I mentioned in the past.
Watch each of these plays and you'll see the pre-snap motion of the receiver forces the defensive backs to add depth to their position before the snap. It's often a natural reaction to motion because of the bodies that the defenders have to navigate to get across the field.
The defender's new depth can also be a conscious reaction based on the alignment of the defender's teammates. His role may change when shifting to the other side of the field. The shift will often force communication between teammates in a compressed time period and the risk of a blown coverage increases.
The fundamental benefit is more room for receivers to operate, often eliminating what would have otherwise been press coverage. Remove the prospect of press coverage against a young receiver or a slot-heavy option like Edelman and it benefits the Patriots.
Although the Patriots' pre-snap motion didn't always yield these results and there were plays where Edelman beat off-man coverage without shifting sides, it was surprising how predictably the pre-snap motion was for the first read in Brady's progression.
2. Thank yanda
The biggest Ravens-centric question for fantasy football at this point of the year is the depth chart battle between Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon. I can't give that answer, but I can tell you that if a clear-cut winner emerges soon (and I don't think there will be one), they're going to be super productive thanks to the return of Marshall Yanda.
Yanda might be the best lineman in football. He's definitely one of the most versatile. The right guard returned from injury to play left guard this weekend against Dallas and this three-play sequence led to a touchdown and it was a showcase of Yanda's immense skill as a run blocker.
Although Cincinnati, Miami, New England, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh isn't a cupcake schedule for fantasy running backs, Yanda is a good enough with a rolling pin to make tasty enough moon pies for fantasy owners relying on the Baltimore ground game.
3. c'mon in, the water is warm
A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard, Zach Miller, C.J. Prosise, Darren Sproles, and Ryan Mathews were among the notable fantasy options that left Sunday's games with a significant injury. Thankfully, Jene Bramel's job is to handle these depressing details. It gives me room to focus on the positive: Some good players returned to playing fields during the past two weeks.
Fantasy owners are often cautious about starting these players during that first week or two. Based on what I saw on Sunday, these options are telling you to dive in...
Steve Smith: In addition to displays of burst after the catch and receptions in the face of hard hits, we saw this beauty for reception No.999 of his career.
Doug Martin: Although Peyton Barber looks sharper every week with his decisions, Martin is truly back. The veteran is active in the receiving game, making strong gains on screens and he's showing off the agility, burst, and skill after contact that we've come to expect.
Dion Lewis: According to Bill Belichick, James White is playing too well to take him off the field due to Lewis' return to health. This may be true as of last week, but after reviewing the tape and watching more reps in practice of Lewis sizzling (according to his teammates), I don't think it will be long before White becomes "Amendola'd" to Lewis' Edelman.
Thomas Rawls: Pete Carroll was not spouting a bunch of sunshine without heat this week when he talked up Rawls' readiness. Although Prosise authored the longest running play in Seahawks history on Sunday, Rawls' performance was equally noteworthy. The second-year back displayed the burst and physicality that we saw from him as a rookie.
While we're in Seattle...
Russell Wilson: He hasn't missed a snap, but we've been missing the fully healthy version of Wilson for some time. Here are two throws on the move that I haven't seen him make since last year.
James Starks: Although Ty Montgomery has more burst, Starks displayed the cutback ability and vision we've come to expect from the veteran. He also performed well in the passing game—and I'm not even referring to the long run after the catch for a touchdown through last night's broken zone. The bigger question is whether the makeshift offensive line in Green Bay will support a running game when it's needed the most.
4. 20/20 hindsight: David Johnson
Looks like I had little reason to worry about the Cardinals' running back as a top-5 option at his position. I've always known that Johnson was an excellent receiver, but his display on Sunday is on a different level for most running backs.
One thing I've learned over the years is that acrobatic receptions may be more impressive on the surface, but they don't beat catches with a defender looming or quick reactions in traffic while negotiating tight coverage. I've seen a lot of runners with this acrobatic ability fail at these types of plays.
Johnson's production through the air against the Vikings was one of the better displays of receiving ability from a running back that I've seen in a game.
The routes, the use of his hands to work free, and the quick reactions to targets thrown with velocity into his frame are impressive subtleties of his performance this weekend. I've also been impressed with his improved patience between the tackles this year.
But what could make him a perennial top-five option in my fantasy rankings is his receiving skills.
5. Green Bay: Welcome to Jared cook
Welcome to Fantasy Comedy Cinema. I'm your host, Matt Waldman. FCC, definitely to be confused with the regulatory agency, features players who deliver enough sad trombones to make opponents laugh and hometown fans cry. This weekend's bill is titled "CATCH (or MOVE!) TE!"
We begin with our feature short, "Saddling Pittsburgh, Rivers is Giggling: Welcome to the Ladarius Green Experience"
Local critic Sigmund Bloom gives the film 1.5 stars, citing a muddled plot that doesn't engender the level of humor that the director intended because the coverage was distracting to the comedy of Green's hands. We at the FCC do not endorse Bloom's criticism, but we felt it fair to at least provide media reaction to this laugh-out-loud featurette that has a full-length sequel in production with even more comedic gold on the way.
Our main feature is a critically acclaimed masterpiece of sly comedy starring journeyman tight end Jared Cook and award-winning straight man and co-star Aaron Rodgers. It's a series of excellent segments bookended by foibles that have made Cook the Jerry Lewis of this generation.
Just when I thought I got out, he pulled me right back in!
- Every Jared Cook fantasy owner in existence.
Like I said, Rodgers was brilliant here. What you may not have realized until this weekend is that he's a master of disguise. Check out this State Farm Commercial where Rodgers and Cook play a woman and an old fisherman engaged in the same routine that they performed in Washington on Sunday night.
It left Al Michaels verklempt.
6. could bortles' dinged shoulder lead to a fantasy garbage strike?
Some people are particular about their garbage service. Me? I just want to make sure that the guy arrives on the scheduled day and gets the job done when he shows up.
In this sense, Blake Bortles has been a fine fantasy garbage man this year—at least until this weekend. The Lions defense was an easy job: no heavy lifting; no oversized items; no sharp objects protruding from the bags; nothing messy, and nothing toxic.
But while goofing around with his pals and making exaggerated tosses of debris into the truck, Bortles tripped over the curb, landed on his throwing shoulder, and he lost whatever accuracy he had left.
These were three consecutive plays for Bortles. First, he coudn't hit the seam against Cover 2.
He put the ball behind his receiver, resulting in his 10th pick-six of his career and second in as many games.
And if not for an odd defensive pass interference call, Bortles was inches away from his second interception in as many passes.
Although Bortles finished the game and even delivered some decent enough passes to make the game close, it was clear that more was off with his play than his usual troubles with the conceptual side of quarterbacking. If you're a Marqise Lee fantasy owner, monitor Bortles' status this week because the connection between these two is growing.
7. Jared Goff's debut
I didn't know what to expect from Jared Goff this weekend. I thought Bucky Brooks' summertime column at NFL.com that expressed shock that Goff was nowhere near ready to start was either ignorant about quarterback play or (more likely, since he was a wide receiver) disingenuous.
Quarterback Coach Will Hewlett says that learning the West Coast Offense from the Air Raid system Goff used is like learning Chinese. When an adult learns a new language the practice of that newly acquired skill often sublimates the notable aspects of an individual's personality.
That individual might be witty, sensitive, and perceptive, but those qualities aren't as easily on display or even functional to him or her when preoccupied with basic questions like "Where is the bathroom?" and making sure they can understand the response before they have an embarrassing accident.
Essentially, this is where Goff was this summer. At Cal, he had an excellent pocket presence, tight-window accuracy, an attacking mindset as a vertical thrower, and pre-snap smarts with reading a defense. But with the Rams, he was learning 19-word commands for a single play call while working more often under center and reading far more complex defenses stocked from top to bottom with better athletes than any single unit he's ever faced.
I thought it was wise for the Rams to wait as long as it did to put Goff into a game. When the Rams decided to start him this weekend, I wondered if the organization was succumbing to public pressure.
I can understand why the staff felt it was time. If Goff acclimates over the next few weeks, the Rams could make the playoffs and the rookie develops confidence that will benefit him into 2017. If he struggles, the Rams weren't likely to contend with Case Keenum and it gives Goff a head start with his learning curve.
Based on what I saw, I'm more optimistic than I thought I'd be. A key indicator that Goff has learned the system well is evidence that his pre-snap smarts have returned. Dolphins Head Coach Adam Gase told Michael Silver, "We pressured the s--- out of him, and he didn't look bothered at all...from what I could tell, he handled the moment and executed the plan. It's a good sign for them."
As I've detailed in this weekly feature numerous times this season, Double A-Gap pressure is one of the most difficult to handle for a quarterback. Dak Prescott is playing excellent football, but the 49ers' Double A-Gap looks had Prescott on the ropes in Week 4 and the Ravens disrupted him with similar looks on Sunday.
When Baltimore abandoned the blitz, guess what? Showtime...
The Double-A look gets everyone. I mean everyone...
When Goff faced his first taste of this pressure look, it wasn't even an obvious pressure like the examples Prescott and Rodgers saw above. Goff's first look was disguised and he sniffed it out pre-snap.
When the Dolphins' pressure reached the pocket, Goff maneuvered it with a similar aplomb that he showed at Cal.
Like most rookies, Goff got a little too confident after this initial successful avoiding pressure and he pushed the boundary too far. Again, good pocket presence in the beginning, but a rookie mistake.
Goff's maneuverings were impressive, but more so was his ability to find receivers in tight windows with confidence.
I was also impressed that Goff didn't press for big plays that weren't there. His lone vertical opportunity was an example of a good process, bad result.
His work against the blitz also helped Todd Gurley and the ground game. There were a few strong runs from Gurley early in the game that I don't think were attributable to Goff's presence but as the game progressed, Goff's play had an impact.
Overall, Goff had a good outing against an aggressive defense. If not for a collapse of the Rams defense that yielded 14 points during the final six minutes, Los Angeles wins this game. I wouldn't recommend adding Goff to your re-draft rosters, but I wouldn't be surprised if he develops a better downfield rapport with Kenny Britt.
Don't drop Britt, stay optimistic about Todd Gurley, and continue to monitor Goff's development because 1-2 additional options for the stretch run may emerge within the next few weeks.
8. kessler out, browns uptick?
The rookie quarterback that struggled the most this weekend was Cody Kessler. In the attempt to make plays down the field, Kessler held onto the ball too long and he got the snot beat out of him. I think this early fourth-down play enabled his sense of confidence to hang in the pocket longer than he should.
So did the following play.
Kessler's hubris ultimately backfired on this play.
When Josh McCown entered the lineup, the offense was better. The biggest reason was McCown's ability to react to the blitz by resetting fast and delivering an accurate ball.
The return of McCown (or possibly Robert Griffin III III) to the lineup will make the Browns a better fantasy team. How much so is dependent on the Browns defense.
9. Catch of the day: Industrial Walleye
Otherwise known as the Browns' defense, this catch of the day is not one that I would recommend eating. Nonetheless, it is technically fresh fish.
The freshest after what it gave up to Pittsburgh on Sunday.
LeVeon Bell totaled 79 yards on 10 touches on the first Steeler drive and the Browns defense then yielded 14 points on 3 drives totaling 43 plays. For a little more context, Cleveland gave up 44 snaps to the Cowboys and 46 to the Ravens the week prior.
For the Browns offense to improve, hope for McCown to remain in the lineup and the Browns offense to win the toss...
10. FRESH FISH
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up:
- Dennis Pitta: Not only is he losing targets to Darren Waller, but he gave up two sacks against the Cowboys. I'm scratching my head about Baltimore matching Pitta with defensive ends in the first place.
- Cardinals Offensive Line: Brian Robison earned two sacks in this game and the Vikings reached Palmer so often than commentator Troy Aikman said it was the most punishment he's seen a quarterback take all year.
- Ladarius Gunter: You can also add the entire Green Bay secondary to this list. It's a makeshift unit that was ill-equipped to withstand the onslaught of Kirk Cousins, DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder, and the rest of the Washington offense.
- The right side of Tampa Bay's pass defense: The Chiefs found ways to fool the linebackers, corners, and safeties with pre-snap motion and bunched sets. The Buccaneers weren't as bad as it has been, but it's still a vulnerable group.
