HOW A Reed INJURY IMPACTS THE Washington Franchise
The prospect from Florida flashed athleticism and receiving skills that drew comparisons to Aaron Hernandez, earning 499 yards and 3 scores in 9 games before concussions derailed his season. The Hernandez comparison as a receiver is tantalizing, but the history of multiple concussions evokes fantasy nightmares of Jahvid Best and Austin Collie.
Washington's offense has a great collection of skill personnel that has the promise to make it one of the better units in the league if the offensive line can protect Robert Griffin III and the quarterback rebounds from last year's sophomore debacle. These are weighty enough concerns short-term that this year's outlook for the offense is optimistic, but not over the moon. Reed figures to be an integral part of the passing game -- especially with the likes of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson stretching the field and a healthy Griffin III capble of forcing linebackers and safeties to push up field and leave a player like Reed to drift behind them.
If Reed misses significant time due to injury, Washington has enough weapons to remain a quality passing game but it significantly lessens the potential for it to become an elite unit. Reed's size, speed, and skill after the catch makes him a mismatch for both linebackers and safeties. While Washington has players capable of stepping into Reed's role in some respects, they are not tight ends and it means they don't offer the same mismatch capabilities and it will require some scheme adjustments.
Overall, the offense sans Reed will still have quality fantasy production, but it will take the added luster its tight end could provide.
BUY
WR Andre Roberts - The former Cardinals slot receiver thought he was coming to Washington as a starter opposite Pierre Garcon, but the Eagles' decision to release DeSean Jackson altered Roberts' expectations. Roberts should see enough opportunities in the slot to earn bye-week fantasy consideration with a healthy Reed in the lineup. If Reed gets hurt, the Washington tight ends are not high-end athletes and it could influence Washington to look to Roberts more often. If Griffin plays well enough in year three, Roberts has the skill to earn 700-900 yards. Still, expecting anything more than 500-700 yards be too optimistic unless your league awards points for return yards and Roberts offers your league a double threat.
Hold
QB Robert Griffin III - With Garcon, Jackson, Morris, and Roberts in the fold, Griffin has more than enough weapons to succeed as a fantasy QB1. Then there's the fact his legs are working well, too. Don't overthink it.
WR Pierre Garcon - Reed's presence in the middle of the field helps Garcon on crossing routes, a particular target type where he shines. But Garcon was productive without Reed in Washington, too. If Reed gets hurt, Washington will find other ways to get Garcon open on these routes between the hash marks.
WR DeSean Jackson - Jackson might lose 3-4 targets where he's so wide open due to safeties accounting for Reed that he misplays Jackson's vertical routes. Griffin has good deep accuracy but it doesn't mean those 3-4 targets turn into 3-4 big plays -- maybe 1-2. In other words, Jackson won't see a signficant downturn because Reed alone is absent from the lineup.
RB Alfred Morris - Reed displayed improvement as a blocker upon entering the NFL, but he was also significantly bigger than his time at Florida. Even so, Reed is not a great blocker and the ground game does not depend on Reed's skill set to open lanes for Morris. Reserve tight end Logan Paulsen is the better edge blocker. There are situations where Morris benefits from teams looking to Reed in the red zone or up the seam, but they aren't an integral reason why Morris succeeds. Don't expect Morris' production to suffer.
SELL
No one - As it stands today, a Reed injury would not precipitate a selloff of any Washington skill player.
Add
RB Chris Thompson - Griffin III told the media in July that the team wants Thompson to function like Darren Sproles in the offense. The quarterback is enthusiastic about Thompson as was his former coach Mike Shanahan. The Florida Sate star has game-breaking skill, but he's also a fine interior runner and receiver for his size. If Reed gets hurt, Thompson might see an uptick in playing time if Washington opts for a more inventive solution. It's a longshot, but worth keeping in mind.
TE Logan Paulsen - If Reed gets hurt Paulsen might . . . might . . . earn high-end fantasy TE2 production. He demonstrated that he could be an occasional red zone presence with three touchdowns last year, but it don't count on more than a 40-catch, 400-yard, 5-touchdown year from the former UCLA tight end if he sees a lot of time. It's likely if Paulsen has to take over for Reed that Niles Paul -- a former receiver and return specialist from Nebraska will also figure into the passing game. In other words, Paulsen is a desperation add in a deeper league .
DROP
No one.