LATE CUTS
The Top 10 could be the Top 12 or Top 15 every week. Here are some short points and late cuts that didn't make the featured segments:
- The CBS broadcast team that interviewed the Colts and Jaguars before the game noted that Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey had nothing but praise for Jacoby Brissett. According to the crew, and Ramsey's teammates, the cornerback rarely has anything good to say about an opponent. Ramsey said Brissett was the best QB in the ACC when they were playing and that Brissett's game was "for real."
- Don't fall for the idea that Todd Gurley is "making" Jared Goff. Gurley's presence is a huge help, for sure, but from the perspective of opposing defenses, it's a mutually beneficial arrangement. Goff's skill in the play-action game is also opening creases for Gurley.
- It's bitter-sweet to watch Matt Forte right now. He still has the vision, agility, burst, and power during healthy moments. Those moments seem too few and far between.
- Watch Russell Wilson thread the needle with pressure in his face and throw touch passes while moving to his left, and it's easy to arrive at the thought that conventional quarterback analysts who say that the Seahawks have to manufacture situations for Wilson to thrive as a passer may have it backwards only due to the past tradition in which the NFL evolved from its QB as a running back/point guard days pre-1950. We could easily say that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning need its offense to manufacture situations for them to thrive as passers because they are limited when creating offense without a strong offensive line.
- Bills receiver Deonte Thompson could be a desperation bye-week option. Thompson and Tyrod Taylor played together in Baltimore and that rapport showed on Sunday. Thompson had no problem finding open zones and Taylor had no problem finding him for intermediate gains in the middle of the field. Thompson also set up a game-winning score with this catch up the left sideline on a wheel route, taking a hit to maintain possession after the catch and also drawing a penalty on the defender.
- Speaking of the Bills, if Laquon Treadwell doesn't earn a second contract in Minnesota and Sean McDermott remains the head of the Buffalo Mafia, I think Treadwell's style of play as a physical blocker, rebounder, and YAC producer, could be a strong match.
- The Broncos and the Patriots both had goalline stands with this weekend with its opponents earning a 1st and goal from the 1.
- Denver's offense lost three tackles during the last five days prior to the Chargers game and moved guard Alan Babre to right tackle as a result. It may not be time to conclude that the Chargers rush defense is vastly improved.
Onto this week's show.
1. o.j. howard: Is it a sighting or an emergence?
Cameron Brate's nine red zone targets lead the Buccaneers' passing game, and fantasy owners only needed a month to realize that Brate was the fantasy tight end of worth in Tampa this year. At least so we thought.
The Buccaneers staff did a strong job of self-scouting the past five weeks of performances and decided to work away from its tendency of leaning solely on Brate and exploiting the Bills defense in the process.
One of the smart elements about this change-up is that Howard has been on the field enough not to tip off a defense. Opponents have become accustomed to seeing Howard routinely on the field as a blocker, which has lulled them to sleep when it comes to his potential use as a receiver.
Tampa preys on this false sense of security when it uses Brate as an H-Back slipping to the right flat with Howard in-line to the same side, but working to the opposite side off a play-fake. It's one of two plays where Howard—who earned 6 catches, 98 yards, and 2 scores—exploited the unsuspecting Bills.
Howard is unlikely an every-week must-start but if Tampa continues using him against it scouting tendencies against Carolina, New Orleans, and the Jets during the next three weeks, Howard could pay dividends for those who kept him for bye weeks. I can't say this is an "emergence" for Howard, who isn't earning those critical targets like Brate just yet. However, his ability to be the big-play counter to the known personnel that defenses are focused on is worth monitoring.
It's also a perfect setup for the next point.
2. what's wrong with Atlanta's offense?
Having Tony Dungy call out the Falcons offense for its lack of creativity and vanilla tendencies is like Toby from The Office telling someone to show more energy. However, offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian completely deserves the criticism. He inherited a high-powered attack that didn't lose any personnel but he's neutered the scheme of all its most compelling points:
- There are far fewer pre-snap shifts and/or motion.
- Tevin Coleman isn't used in the slot as a receiver against linebackers up the seam or the sideline.
- The 3-5 times Austin Hooper has been targeted on the move in open space, he has performed well but there's little effort to get him the ball as a primary.
- There's little misdirection beyond bootleg action complementing the ground game and those passes are generally crossing routes when throwbacks to Hooper, Taylor Gabriel, and the running backs could work wonders.
- The preseason emphasis on using Mohamed Sanu in the vertical game and Gabriel as an intermediate route runner has not only failed to come to fruition, neither are doing what they did well last year.
The Falcons offense is fully loaded like a high-end sports car that's (barely) legal for the road with Matt Ryan as its top-notch professional driver. Sarkisian's preseason conversations with the press were promises of tweaking minor things and letting a great machine and driver do its thing. However, Sarkisian's play-calling looks like he's in the car with Ryan screaming for the vehicle to slow down so he doesn't faint.
Unless you have Devonta Freeman and Julio Jones, this offense has been a disappointment. Hooper has performed well enough that a tweak or two in the ways the Buccaneers have used Howard could elevate him to mid-range TE1 fantasy value. Considering Freeman's effectiveness in the red zone and the Falcons' tendencies to feature Coleman there, too, it's odd that the tight end only has five targets there.
I don't know if Atlanta will make the correct changes but if you're counting on Gabriel or Sanu to do more, I'd stop until proven otherwise.
3. when pass protection gets murky: Joe Mixon vs. Bud Dupree
An ongoing theme of focus this year has been running backs and pass protection. Fantasy owners are too quick to see a cut block or a shoulder to the chest that knocks down a defender and conclude "that guy can really block."
There's more to it. In fact, here's one of those plays this week from Le'Veon Bell, who has repeatedly thrown the shoulder or elbow into a defender on a chip assignment only to knock that defender free of the primary blocker and into a better path of pursuit on the quarterback.
I love the effort, but blocking requires some amount of wisdom to override the desire to demolish someone at the expense of the team. Sometimes a play doesn't appear as clear-cut as it appears. This interaction between Joe Mixon and Bud Dupree is a great example. On first blush, it appears a simple case of Dupree gaining the edge on Mixon.
Even Tony Romo realizes midway through his analysis of the play that the missed block wasn't as simple as Mixon making a mistake. If you listened to his analysis, you knew that Romo broached slide protection rules and the potential that the right tackle could have made the error and caught Mixon off-guard.
Slide protection is a call where one side of the offensive line moves together in the same direction to pick up the defenders near the line based on a pre-snap look that would otherwise foil their initial assignments. When there's a slide protection call, the running back is supposed to work in the opposite direction of the line's movement and pick up the leftover defender.
If the line slides inside, the runner takes the edge man on the outside. If the line slides outside, the running back works inside. Based on the movement of the right tackle and right guard, it appears that the tackle did not execute the slide protection call. If he did, he would have picked up Dupree and the guard would have taken the defensive end. Mixon would have worked inside.
Instead, the tackle went took on the end and that left the guard without an assignment because the center slid to the right. Mixon, expecting to work inside, hesitated when he saw the tackle take his man, and it was all it took for Dupree to take the edge.
While Romo finished his analysis saying that Mixon needed to realize faster that he has to pick up the free man (and ultimately that's true), I'd bet money that Romo would have approached his analysis differently if he had a little more time to assess the play. Mixon made a mistake, but the mistake began with the tackle and it wasn't a case of Mixon's technique or effort.
4. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MATT MOORE AND JAY CUTLER AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
I've often been a Jay Cutler apologist. I think his promising development track got a sudden shaft in Denver and Chicago, leading to slow, downward spiral. While its correct that Cutler must own a lot of his behavior and performance, some of the issues attributed to him have been reactionary thinking.
This week, I'm not apologizing for Cutler. While he took a ton of shots and played tough, the chest injury he incurred opened the door for Matt Moore to show something that Cutler has not as a passer.
First, a little background. Dolphins receivers have dropped a lot of passes this year. Enough passes that it was a supporting argument made to the television crew about Cutler. Against the Jets, Cutler delivered multiple catchable passes that his receivers couldn't catch.
However, it took Moore's insertion into the game for it to become clear that Cutler is a bigger problem than his corps when it comes to these drops. Cutler is a "see-it, throw-it" passer who leans on his arm strength and tight-window accuracy to fit the ball into spots that few pros can.
These are tight-window throws that often lead receivers into high-traffic areas and into positions where they cannot avoid punishment. Technically, the receivers should catch these passes.
However, we don't see Tom Brady leading receivers into harm's way nearly as often as Cutler. Even when Brady pivots from right to left and hits the backside receiver with barely a look to check that the receiver is open, Brady's technically-sound stance and understanding of the receiver's location translates to throws that are often placed away from oncoming contact.
Brady did this twice last night with a touchdown throw to James White at the goal line and Brandin Cooks in the left flat breaking towards the middle of the field. Both times, the receivers had to dive for the ball but that dive was the reason they didn't take hits.
Cutler doesn't do this enough and when Moore began hitting receivers on targets where the man could make safe and profitable adjustments, the difference became clear.
Moore told the media that it's hard not to think about the fact that Miami didn't feel confident in him as the starter and opted for Cutler late in the preseason. While he may not be the answer in Miami, his understanding of how to make the simple plays is a compelling reason to bench Cutler in his favor.
After all, talented quarterbacks make difficult plays but the best quarterbacks make the most of the simple ones.
While Cutler has been working on his footwork every day after practice and there has been an improvement, Moore is putting his receivers in winning situations that also spare them from punishment. If Moore earns the starting job, look for better production from Julius Thomas and Kenny Stills. Look for Moore to spread the ball around and improve the distribution of passes in the vertical game.
Moore may not deliver consistent fantasy starter production, but he's capable of strong committee work. Last year, he averaged 224 yards and 2.67 touchdowns during the final three games that he started. If I were Miami, I'd seriously consider going to Moore.
5. breaking down Marlon mack's usage
The calls for Mack to take over for Frank Gore are ill-advised, but I understand the love for Mack's open-field ability and athletic prowess. Mack's footwork, stride type, and pad level actually give him the potential to develop into the player that Tevin Coleman's greatest proponents think Coleman was supposed to become.
Keep that in mind when I say that Mack is used a lot like the Falcons used Coleman during his two seasons with Kyle Shanahan: a runner in passing sets and a receiver in run looks.
The Colts are doing this because they want Mack in space where he excels.
However, Mack still has work to do between the tackles. He's actually better than Coleman when comparing their rookie years. However, he must show more patience and stick with the intent of the scheme to maximize his gains.
This play below has a double-team of a lineman to the linebacker Myles Jack. Mack had a perfect opportunity to press this to the right of the double team and continue to lead the double-teamed defender and Jack to that area.
If Mack presses that run to the right, it would allow the center to work towards Jack and seal a lane between Jack and Telvin Smith Sr getting blocked by the wing back. This would have opened a better crease as designed. While there's a chance that No. 92 pursuing down the line from the backside squeezes off this gap before Mack clears it, a confident and well-rehearsed back between the tackles likely creases that defensive tackle on his way to a bigger gain up the middle.
Even if this isn't the case, there are several plays that make this point about Mack when he was in college. Where Mack is most effective between the tackles are quick-hitting plays with one choice or slower developing plays where he doesn't get the ball until the middle is opened up with some form of misdirection (think draws and screens).
Mack's big-play ability is a huge asset and the Colts need to incorporate him far more into the existing offense but not at the expense of Gore, who is clearly the steady, Freeman-like presence between the tackles. It appears that the Colts understand this with how it has been using Mack.
Look for Mack to earn as much or greater volume to Gore against teams that have the potential to blow them out and less volume in close contests. The Texans and Steelers are two games that could clearly qualify as "Mack" contests. The Bengals, Bills, and Ravens are more likely "Gore" games. The Titans, Jaguars, and Broncos could go either way depending on the health of some of their offensive personnel.
6. why the Cardinals' ground game failed and life without Palmer
In last week's The Best Of Week 7, I had optimism for Peterson to deliver another strong fantasy outing but it depended on the way Arizona approached the Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers, arguably the best duo of 4-3 tackles against the run in the NFL.
My Take: If you're going to sell Peterson, take the risk of doing it after the weekend. Yeah, he could get hurt or underwhelm, but I bet he has enough week of 80-100 yards and a touchdown. Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers are excellent defensive tackles against the run, which means you'll see them earn penetration and stuff Peterson multiple times this weekend.
However, the true weakness of the Rams are the defensive ends and linebackers who don't maintain their responsibilities long enough. Expect Peterson's play-by-play gains to look a lot like what I characterized about him the week before he broke out.
I expected more counter plays, tosses, and misdirection play fakes to receivers and Andre Ellington or Kerwynn Williams working behind the formation. The Cardinals did this selectively last year with positive results.
Instead, the Cardinals ran right at the strength of this Rams front and it was ugly.
Peterson had to do a lot more work for a lot less against the Rams.
Peterson wasn't bad against Los Angeles; his production was. It's a big difference when evaluating talent. It may not be that great of a difference when assessing his fantasy value without a quarterback the caliber of Carson Palmer for the rest of the fantasy football season.
Instead of viewing Peterson as an RB2 with RB1 highs and RB3 lows, which I believe could have been his value on Sunday if not for the Palmer injury. After all, Palmer was a respectable 10-for-18 for 122 yards during the first half and repeatedly drove Arizona downfield. Instead, we're now looking at Peterson as an RB3 with RB1 highs but non-starter lows depending on the quality of the opposing secondary and pass rush trying to derail the ineffective Drew Stanton.
San Francisco, Houston, Tennessee, and New York are still reasonable starts for Peterson if you have flex expectations for him. Seattle, Jacksonville, Los Angeles, and Washington aren't good bets at this time.
7. A compelling counterpoint about Brett Hundley's beneficiaries
There are three analysts I like to listen to on Sundays: Chris Spielman, Tony Romo, and Charles Davis. Romo is excellent at discussing coverage and pre-snap calls/adjustments. Spielman has an astute understanding of both the team game and individual positional technique. Davis is a lot like Romo but from the opposite perspective of a former defensive back.
In last week's Gut Check, I profiled Brett Hundley and predicted the beneficiaries of Hundley's promotion to the starting role in Green Bay:
Hundley matches the minimum requirements of Aaron Rodgers' job in this offense. I'm sharing these film-based observations below and placing the players and positions who are likely targets of these scenarios in parenthesis:
- Buys time and targets aggressively downfield on the move and into tight windows (Nelson, Adams, Cobb, and Montgomery).
- Stands in the pocket and will take the shot to hit an open vertical target (Nelson, Adams, and Yancey).
- Finds second and third potions from the pocket (Nelson, Adams, and Cobb).
- Exhibits understanding of the offense and the timing of routes (Everyone).
Here are areas of Hundley's game that need improvement or I have not seen evidence of his development since his rookie year. If he can unlock these skills or prove he's competent, it will unlock the potential of the players and positions listed in parenthesis:
- Throw accurate touch passes over linebackers and safeties in the flats and shallow zones like the screen pass (RBs, TEs, and Cobb).
- Deliver accurate touch passes in the red zone (Nelson and Adams).
- Deliver outlet throws (RBs and TEs).
- Identify and execute hot reads, protection calls, and route adjustments (WRs and TEs).
- Make good audibles from run-to-pass and pass-to-run and change the direction of called run plays at the line (All skill players, especially RBs).
Winners: When breaking down Hundley's game in this fashion, the safest fantasy bets are Nelson and Adams, who I expect to remain fantasy starters even if one or both drop a tier from WR1 to WR2.
Boom-Bust: Cobb is a risk-reward pick and depends on how well Hundley can make touch passes over defenders, especially in blitz situations. The same can be said with the tight ends but they have an even higher degree of boom-bust potential because they are often used in Green Bay as outlets or targets on hots and audibles.
Losers: Unless the Packers implement more option and read-option looks into the offense that we've seen used with Carson Wentz, Alex Smith, and DeShaun Watson, the tight ends and running backs won't see a rise in production and may even see it suffer further.
Although I still think Adams and Nelson will perform well enough to consider a tier lower than their fantasy output prior to Aaron Rodgers' injury, Davis did a better job of explaining why this is the case. While doing so, it also offers a compelling counterpoint for greater pessimism about the duo.
"I doubt there are a lot of progressions in [Hundley's] pass patterns—1-2 reads, max. Most of it will be in his sightlines," said Davis, who explains that many of those 1-2 reads will put his sightlines between the numbers. "That takes Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson out wide and it makes it harder for him to get them the football."
Considering that Adams and Nelson each had one catch in the game with 2:21 left in the third quarter, his argument had some weight on Sunday. At the same time, Davis argument doesn't include how this offense and Hundley will evolve as they work together.
We already saw the Packers incorporate more read-option with Hundley than I expected, but not to the point that the Packers were abandoning the pocket passing game. Hundley's rushing production will keep him a viable bye-week option. The offensive line's return to health and the astute decision to feature Aaron Jones more than Ty Montgomery should also help the passing game. We'll have to look for further evidence that Hundley is only asked to cycle through 1-2 reads on most plays.
8. why Mike Evans and Doug Baldwin are so good
On the surface, Evans and Baldwin are dramatically different receivers. Evans is a monster; Baldwin, a mighty mite. However, both display great technical skill at the line of scrimmage to earn immediate separation as route runners.
Baldwin's first-step quickness and precision also make him an excellent YAC receiver despite the fact that opponents know his work in the shallow flats is the design of the Seahawk offense. Although Baldwin offers a surprising level of production as a 50/50 receiver, this is a clear strength of Evans.
However, Evans is also developing into a smart veteran, who can at least prevent some of Jameis Winston's bad moments from getting worse.
Both players can surprisingly execute certain degrees of "big" and "small" ball. Both are technically sound. And both can beat top cornerbacks and produce at a high level despite their offenses' shortcomings.
9. Amari Cooper's Thursday night fantasy bonanza
Cooper's 200-yard night against the Chiefs was a welcomed bonanza for those with the stones to continue starting the Raiders receiver—I sure didn't. Cooper thrived off misdirection and extended use from the slot. This touchdown from a flea-flicker that followed a successful bootleg throw to Jared Cook was an excellent capper to a combination of plays where one build on the other to keep Chiefs off-balance.
Cooper earned some easier looks in the shallow area of the field working outside from the slot against mismatched defenders. As the game progressed, Cooper made tougher plays from that spot.
Despite the production, it wasn't a perfect night for Cooper. This target below is a tough play, but one he should have tracked better for receiver of his talent.
Cooper isn't completely over his slump. His ability to separate on the outside still seems to be an issue and it's unlikely he'll rid himself of all drops. However, it appears the Raiders are okay with moving Cooper around to match him with lesser defenders and Cooper displayed some quality play late in the game that will be good for his confidence.
I wouldn't reinstall him as your fantasy WR1 yet. The Bills and Giants will pose a stiff test and if New England has fixed its defensive woes—which seemed to be the case on Sunday night when it simplified some of its concepts—Cooper could remain a matchup play until Week 14, when it earns the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Eagles during the fantasy playoffs.
Hopefully, you added depth at the position to offset the gaping vacuum Cooper left there as your likely WR1 or WR2 in summer drafts.
10. FRESH FISH
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.
- Hard Rock Stadium: Quick who led the Dolphins-Jets in unassisted tackles? Nope, not a player; it was the turf monster who tripped up Bilal Powell, Elijah McGuire, Jay Ajayi, and Jakeem Grant multiple times in this game. I know nothing about groundskeeping but I know when the turf looks closer to old Cleveland Browns Municipal Stadium, it ain't right.
- T.J. Ward: Ward is a fantastic run defender, but former Virginia Tech quarterback Logan Thomas scored on a rub route that hung-up Ward, who took a poor angle.
- George Kittle: He's playing well enough to start for the 49ers, but he led the league in drops heading into Week 7.
- Jimmy Graham: Despite a terrific play on a slant and a touchdown on a fade, Graham dropped two big-play passes, including a fade in the red zone.
- Jordan Phillips: Thanks to Phillips going for the ball rather than the tackle, Matt Forte looked like Gale Sayers on this run. Forte was the only back who could consistently keep his footing.
- Thomas Rawls: Seattle's runner started the game and earned some decent yardage (for the current standards of the Seahawks, not fantasy football). However, he also fumbled the ball while breaking through the line of scrimmage on a run, dropped a screen pass, and rushed past his downfield blockers to squander the potential for 20-25 additional yards on another screen.
- Dolphins secondary: Miami missed multiple tackles that were makable in this game, opening the field for yards after the catch and yards after contact.
- Colts secondary: Indianapolis' defensive backs routinely missed tackles, gave up yards after the catch, and turned short receptions into intermediate and long gains.
- Chiefs linebackers and defensive backs: When you think "Kansas City Defense," you'll want to associate it with "free fantasy points" for slot receivers and tight ends.
As always, the league is moving fast. Don't blink...
