Quarterbacks by matt Waldman
Although Fran Tarkenton, Doug Flutie, and Drew Brees paved the way for short quarterback prospects, Russell Wilson and his success with the Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks is a reminder for this generation of NFL personnel executives that size is merely "a" factor and not "the" factor when evaluating the quarterback position. Of the top-four fantasy prospects at the position based on talent, draft position, and landing spot, two of them did not meet the physical prototype when they were collegians. The next four prospects with the best combination of skill and scenario to develop also have two passers that lack a physical dimension of quarterbacking that makes NFL organizations feel more secure. Despite the fact that there is no slam-dunk prospect for major media or a consensus of NFL teams, there are four quarterbacks likely to earn the starting job by 2015 and two with upside to deliver fantasy production among the top-six at their position by 2017.
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings
Strengths: Bridgewater possesses several characteristics that make him a top prospect. His footwork is smooth and coordinated, which helps him deliver the ball with a quick, compact release, anticipation of his receivers' breaks, and pinpoint accuracy within 25-30 yards of the line of scrimmage on straight drops or on the move. A student of the game, Birdgewater mastered a Louisville system based on the Oakland Raiders' west coast offense that Rich Gannon used during his reign as league MVP. A creative player, Bridgewater has a feel for integrating his physical and conceptual skills to read the defense and find openings even under pressure. Although criticized for his quiet personality and some anonymous executives said Bridgewater didn't have "IT" to be the face of the franchise, the rookie scored exceedingly well on a personality test that 18 NFL teams use to assess mental toughness, responsiveness to coach, fast-thinking, and leadership. Bridgewater has also shown he is tough as nails on the field; playing well in big games against quality competition with multiple injuries that would keep some quarterbacks on the bench.
Weaknesses: At 6'2", 214 lbs., Bridgewater reportedly played well below this weight as a senior and there will be lingering concerns surrounding his ability to maintain enough weight and take punishment in an NFL pocket. Although he has enough arm strength to deliver the ball deep, the velocity of his deep throws have been lacking on tape. Much of this has to do with Bridgewater not stepping through his deep throws with enough leg drive to generate this velocity. This is one of the most correctable issues that a young quarterback can have. Like Joe Montana, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Steve McNair, and Kurt Warner, Bridgewater's passes have some wobble. While some analysts criticized this wobble on a national stage, the fact that these star quarterbacks had this kind of pass quality is something that long-time offense coordinator Norv Turner has learned helps the ball carry further than tight RPM throws that can sink.
2014 Outlook: The Vikings told the media when it drafted Bridgewater that they are not going to push its rookie to play immediately. The team is willing to let Bridgewater sit a year and make the transition behind two veteran quarterbacks. But if Bridgewater demonstrates he's the best quarterback on the team as a rookie, don't be surprised if he plays at least part of the 2014 season and posts a handful of fantasy QB1 games.
Dynasty Outlook: Bridgewater is the best quarterback in this draft class and would have been a rated within striking distance of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin in my book. Although he lacks the breakaway mobility of Griffin and the linebacker-like build of Luck, there isn't a huge gap between Bridgewater and the Colts quarterback when it comes to football intelligence and on-field creativity. With an explosive receiving corps and the best runner of this generation, Bridgewater is in a situation where he can produce witin range of 4000 yards and 30 touchdowns by 2016.
NFL Comparison: Joe Montana had a slight frame, quiet personality, and he described his passes as having a "tight wobble." Montana also had excellent footwork, anticipation, field vision, and toughness. Minus a proven Hall of Fame career, this sounds a lot like Bridgewater.
Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns
Strengths: The Heisman Trophy Winner is a dynamic improviser with excellent mobility. Quicker than fast, Manziel can bait pressure into bad angles, escape the pocket and throw the ball to open spots for his receivers working back to the target. Manziel has enough arm strength to drive the ball deep and he can make every throw with good velocity from the pocket and many high-velocity throws while on the move. The Browns' new quarterback isn't a game-breaker like Michael Vick or Robert Griffin in their prime, but he has enough skill as a ball carrier to move the chains if the opposing defense does not place a spy on him. A fiery competitor, Manziel has illustrated the vocal leadership to rally his troops on the sideline and lead them on the field with his production in big games where his team was behind.
Weaknesses: Manziel has to refine his footwork on drops so he can deliver the ball with pinpoint accuracy on a more consistent basis. There is a characterization in the media that Manziel is wild and reckless, because of an infamous throw into a sea of defenders during last year's Alabama game. However Eagles Pro Bowl quarterback Nick Foles had more of these bad decisions--and like Manziel, got away with them--in 2013 than the Browns' new rookie. Manziel's recklessness is more along the lines of showing too much confidence in targeting a big-play read rather than settling for the easy play that will move the chains. the Browns' new quarterback thrives with a creative scrambling style to buy time in the pocket that worked great at Texas A&M, but may need adjustment against top athletes of the NFL.
2014 Outlook: The Cleveland Browns have a decent offensive line, a new power back in Ben Tate, an ascending talent with tight end Jordan Cameron, and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan's spread system that made Robert Griffin a star during his first year in the league. However, Browns' Pro Bowl receiver Josh Gordon is facing a lengthy suspension after testing positive multiple times for marijuana and the rest of the corps is new, inexperience, coming off injury, or both. Incumbent starter Brian Hoyer is recuperating from an ACL tear, but performed well enough at a high level that he might win the job to begin the season. Expect Manziel to see the field during the year, but there will be ups and downs that come with a team lacking a proven, game-changing playmaker in the receiving corps.
Dynasty Outlook: If the Browns' organization doesn't dismantle the talent on this team without finding quality replacements while Manziel makes his transition to the NFL, the rookie has the skills to develop into a fantasy QB1 in the top half of the league. However, this is placing a lot of faith in Cleveland to surround Manziel with a great supporting cast. Even with a mediocre offensive unit, Manziel is capable of high-end QB2 production.
NFL Comparison: Although Manziel's size and arm strength isn't the caliber of Brett Favre's, the toughness, creativity, and feel for the game has a lot in common with the Packers' great. Another way to compare Manziel is to combine the styles of Tony Romo and Michael Vick. There are a lot of people who mention Russell Wilson due to the size similarities, but Wilson is a far more disciplined runner and passer who creates within the framework more than Manziel..
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars
Strengths: Bortles has the prototypical height and weight of a top-10 draft pick at quarterback. He'll stand tall in the pocket in the face of pressure to deliver the ball, but like Manziel he's also adept at baiting the defense and sliding into open space to buy time. When he has to run, he has enough strength and speed to move the chains and occasionally break a big play. Bortles flashes intermediate accuracy against tight coverage and he shows confidence with his decision-making.
Weaknesses: The Jaguars new quarterback has to put his whole body into deep throws to get the requried distance on some passes. When he has to turn from his drop to the sideline and deliver a perimeter throw, his footwork falters and he'll sail passes. While confident with his reads, Bortles missed a fair number of hybrid, zone/man looks pre-snap in college and this is a common defensive coverage scheme in the NFL.
2014 Outlook: Chad Henne is likely to start this year, because the offensive line still needs work and the receiving corps is young an inexperienced. Henne's stats may not show it, but he's an adept veteran capable of keeping a talented team in the ballgame every week. When a team is rebuilding, Henne will help guide the team with his knowledge of the system so there's consistent direction while Bortles sits, learns the system, and addresses his mechanical flaws. Don't expect Bortles to play unless Henne gets hurt. If this happens, Bortles may earn some quality fantasy production as a garbage-time option, but not enough to consider him in re-draft leagues.
Dynasty Outlook: Bortles is capable of fantasy QB1 production if he has an excellent supporting cast, but the characterization that he's similar to Ben Roethlisberger is an injustice to Bortle's upside. The Jaguars QB has enough to learn that it might take him 5-6 years to develop into a savvy veteran capable of producing borderline QB1 production without a top-notch cast. Expect mid-range to high-end QB2 production from Bortles if the Jaguars continue heading in the right direction.
NFL Comparison: Matt Hasselbeck is a much fairer comparison to Bortles in terms of upside. They are about the same size and the arm strength for both players is good enough, but not top-drawer. Both players are mobile, but not gamebreakers in the open field. If Bortles doesn't have to take a pounding early in his career, he could get better with age--much like the former Seahawks starter who led Seattle to a Super Bowl.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
Strengths: Carr has one of the best arms in the class. He can make every throw from the pocket and on the move. He displays fine accuracy on fade routes, which will serve him well in the NFL. Carr does best when he can make quick decisions and release the ball fast an in rhythm on quick-hitting plays in a spread offense. Because he has experience in a pro-style offense early in his Fresno State career, he does a good job with his drops from center and can read the field from this vantage point. Carr has also been exposed to the concepts of quarterbacking since his older brother David entered the league as the No.1 overall pick in the draft over a decade ago.
Weaknesses: Carr has an impulsive streak as a decision-maker. He's in a hurry to get rid of the ball and he'll often begin his release without having his feet in a good position because he sees the open man and he wants to exploit the hole in the defense. When Carr does this, his accuracy suffers. He had a lot of accuracy woes with seam routes at Fresno State. There are also plays where Carr rushes his throwing process when he feels pressure. It's not a consistent issue at this point in his career, but if he takes a beating early it's possible that it could get worse and deteriorate the quarterback's potential to make plays under pressure.
2014 Outlook: The Raiders signed Matt Schaub and the former Texans starter is a quality veteran that can start for Oakland while Carr learns the ropes. If Schaub gets hurt, Matt McGloin has surprising moments last year, but fantasy owners should expect to see Carr on the field with a corps of receivers that are known for its skill with fade routes, including James Jones, Rod Streater, Andre Holmes, and Juron Criner. If the Raiders can deliver a highly productive ground game, Carr will have a chance to generate quality games as a rookie, but don't expect more than a few games of QB1 production. If the ground game is like it has been in the recent past, Carr will struggle under pressure and he won't be worth a waiver wire pickup in most weeks.
Dynasty Outlook: If the Raiders can generate consistency with its ground game and receiving corps, any young quarterback with talent would have a fighting chance to develop into a productive fantasy passer in Oakland. However, this is a huge "if." Expect Carr to earn a true shot at the starting job in 2015, which is Schuab's final year of a two-year deal. If he wins, expect fantasy QB2 production--likely mid-tier QB2 numbers at best because James Jones is a quality WR2, but has to prove he can be the primary. If Carr's development takes a steady trajectory without a lot of bumps, he could become a fantasy QB1.
NFL Comparison: Jay Cutler is more athletic than Derek Carr, but the arm strength and base accuracy is similar. If Carr can minimize his impulsivity, he might approach Cutler.
Quick Hits
David Fales, Chicago Bears: A heady passer with excellent field vision and pocket presence, Fales loves to challenge the blitz. He has everything a team wants from pocket passer except the arm strength--and it is common for young quarterbacks to improve arm strength and velocity after they enter the league. The fact that Fales has to develop more trunk rotation (stepping into this throws) on deeper targets illustrates that there is opportunity for improvement, but the question is how much of a gain can me make? If it's minor, he still has the skills to thrive in a west coast system like the Bears. If the gains are moderate, he could become a surprisingly good starter.
Brynn Renner, Denver Broncos: A well-regarded performer in the Manning Passing Camp last summer, Mike Mayock broached the idea that Renner had the skills to be a first-round pick in the 2014 draft. A shoulder injury derailed that possibility and it took Peyton Manning lobbying the combine selection committee to get Renner into the workouts. Renner looked like a potential first-day pick after his sophomore year in a pro-style offense, demonstrating pocket presence, accuracy, and productivity. However, North Carolina fired the coach and new coach Larry Fedora installed a new offensive system predicated on short passing. Renner was a smarter, more accurate, pressure-savvy quarterback at this stage of the game than current Broncos backup Brock Osweiller was as a rookie. If Renner can progress along the same trajectory, he could become a bargain heir-apparent to Manning.
Aaron Murray, Kansas City Chiefs: Murray is a perfect fit for Andy Reid's west coast system, because he's an experienced pro-style quarterback. The former Georgia starter likes to make quick decisions and he does an excellent job of layering ball fakes into is game. He can throw well on the move and if the defense gives Murray time to play within the rhythm and structure of the play, he looks like a future NFL starter. However, pressure the pocket and force Murray to work outside the structure of the play or in a pocket with constant breakdowns and he becomes a far more erratic performer. He has potential to become a starter, but the big question will always be about his ability to handle pressure.
Zach Mettenberger, Tennessee Titans: What you see is what you get with Mettenberger. He's a Kerry Collins-like pocket passer capable of starting in the NFL if he becomes a more consistent decision maker. Mettenberger stands tall in the pocket and isn't afraid to deliver the ball into tight coverage. Jake Locker is a free agent at season's end and unless Tyler Wilson demonstrates massive improvement between last year and this, Mettenberger could be the heir-apparent if the Titans don't acquire a new quarterback in 2015--a big if, but possible if Mettenberger shows something in 2014 thanks to another potential Jake Locker injury.
Keith Wenning, Baltimore Ravens: The Ball State product is off most fans' radars, but he has a good arm and excellent anticipation and accuracy in the deep game. He has the prototypical quarterback build and it's possible he could be Joe Flacco's backup by summer's end. He's a developmental player who might earn more attention after his rookie contract.
Tom Savage, Houston Texans: The darling of the pre-draft media hype, Savage has arm strength that rivals or exceeds Derek Carr's and he's a bigger athlete. The rookie played at multiple college programs and only became a starter this year. His tape reveals a passer capable of making some of the more difficult NFL-caliber throws from the pocket and the move with velocity or touch, but also displays multiple flaws with reading defenses. Savage's conceptual issues are more about not seeing the coverage as opposed to ignoring it because of confidence in his arm. He's the wildcard of this draft class. If he improves, all the tools are there. If he relies on what earned him this opportunity, he'll struggle to make a roster long-term.
Brett Smith, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: If Smith conducted the Texas A&M offense the past two years, there wouldn't have been a major dropoff. The former Wyoming Cowboy has some similarities to Johnny Manziel in the sense that he's creative, mobile, and athletic enough to buy time and fit the ball into receivers with accuracy on the move. However, Smith lacks Manziel's arm strength, he's often too confident with trying to squeeze throws into tight spots, and some scouts suspected Smith left because he didn't want to learn a new offense as a senior. Smith is an intriguing player, but he might have to bounce around to find a home--if he finds one.
Logan Thomas, Arizona Cardinals: Once considered a top prospect, Thomas never took the next steps to improve his game to the level that many expected of him. Thomas is big, powerful, and has a cannon for an arm. He has excellent anticipation and accuracy on vertical routes and he does a good job feeling pressure in the pocket and stepping into open space. The reason Thomas dropped is that he had little to no skill with progression reading and appeared inept with underneath zone coverage. Some people blame the Virginia Tech staff, but if Thomas wants to be a successful professional he'll have to develop his mind for the game as well as he has his body.
Jimmy Garoppolo, New England Patriots: Another darling of the NFL media, Garoppolo has a quick release and enough arm strength to develop into an NFL starter. The reason he's at the bottom of this list despite the fact that the New England Patriots drafted him is his lack of pocket presence. Garoppolo reacts to pressure too early. Although he got away with it at times at Eastern Illinois, it won't happen in the NFL. This is a difficult issue for quarterbacks to correct. If he does, perhaps he can become Tom Brady's heir apparent, but Ryan Mallett was erratic versus pressure and no one was banging down New England's door to acquire the Arkansas star.
A.J. McCarron, Cincinnati Bengals: McCarron is a lot like Murray in the respect that he's a rhythm passer that thrives when the pocket is clean and he's has a strong ground game to balance the offense. The Alabama quarterback can throw the ball vertically with distance, but he lacks velocity at this range and with some of the deep-intermediate sideline throws. His most troublesome trait as a passer is his tendency to react to pressure too early and alter his release when pressure isn't close to reaching him. Don't expect McCarron to develop into an NFL starter.
Tight Ends By Matt WAldman
Rookie tight ends are best viewed through the fantasy football lens as a valuable commodity only in dynasty drafts. Despite the position splitting into a variety of roles that take advantage of receiving skill and versatility split from the line of scrimmage, counting on a rookie tight end to deliver production as an immediate fantasy starter is at best, a late-round bet in re-draft leagues. Since 2000, here is the list of tight ends that have delivered TE1 production in 12-team leagues:
| Year | Player | Fpts | Rec | YD | TD | Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Rob Gronkowski | 115 | 42 | 546 | 10 | 5 | |
| 2010 | Aaron Hernandez | 97 | 45 | 563 | 6 | 11 | |
| 2008 | John Carlson | 93 | 55 | 627 | 5 | 7 | |
| 2005 | Heath Miller | 82 | 39 | 459 | 6 | 12 | |
| 2002 | Randy McMichael | 73 | 39 | 485 | 4 | 9 | |
Tim Wright (No.13 in 2013), Dustin Keller (No.14 in 2008), Owen Daniels (No.14 in 2006), and Chris Cooley (No.14 in 2004) also offered enough starter production as rookies for roster consideration in most leagues, but it brings the total to 9 rookies with starter production in 14 years--only Rob Gronkowski could be considered an impact fantasy option right away.
This year's class has four players capable of delivering immediate production based on their talent and fit. Two have upside that is statistically on par with Gronkowski's rookie year and two could present solid depth.
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
Strengths: Ebron is a fluid athlete with the agility and quickness to make the first man miss in the open field and earn chunks of yards. He's strong enough to develop into a passable blocker when paired with a lineman or fullback in the run game and can add muscle and refine technique to get even better. However, it's likely that he'll be used as a move tight end to threaten the seam or even split outside as a mistmatch against small cornerbacks.
Weaknesses: Ebron has good hands, but his track record of making contested catches in tight, physical coverage is spotty. Too often, Ebron was "this close" from making a fantastic play that would elevate his potential from of a productive starting tight end to a superstar on the level of Vernon Davis. Ebron also has a tendency to make reckless decisions as a runner in the open field, choosing to leap into hits that force him off the field for short periods of time during games. If he doesn't correct this tendency he'll have greater difficulty staying healthy against the most physical level of football in the world.
2014 Outlook: Ebron lands in one of the best situations in the NFL. He won't have to block a lot at the line of scrimmage because Brandon Pettigrew offers this dimension so he'll be used as a plus-version of Tony Scheffler and Joseph Fauria in the slot. With Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate flanking Pettigrew on the perimeter and Reggie Bush and Joique Bell offering multiple dimensions from the backfield, Matt Stafford should have some wide-open passing lanes to deliver the ball up the seam to Ebron. If there's a player in prime position for a huge rookie year, it's Ebron. There will be fantasy owners that ditch any sense of caution and select Ebron as a low-end TE1. It's a worthwhile risk, but understand the downside of drafting a rookie with some reckless tendencies and minor consistency issues.
Dynasty Outlook: Ebron could have a few years of top-three production at his position because Johnson's presence in an offense now loaded to bear. However, divorce his skills from the surrounding personnel and he's closer to a mid-range TE1 in potential than a top guy. Keep this in mind of Johnson gets hurt or retires. At that point, it will be time to sell high.
Comparison: Ebron's upside is close to Julius Thomas. If he busts, think Ben Troupe who was formerly of the Titans. Thomas is more consistent than Troupe, but both have shown issues against physical play to varying degrees.
Colt Lyerla, Green Bay Packers
Strengths: The most talented "move" tight end in the draft; Lyerla's skill as a receiver and ball carrier matches or exceeds Ebron in almost every way. Unlike Ebron, he's consistent at winning the tough targets in tight, physical coverage on clutch targets. Oregon liked to place Lyerla on the perimeter and often used him against cornerbacks in pivotal down and distance situations. The Packers' new tight end has the leaping ability and coordination to win the ball in the air on fades, seams, or routes breaking to the quarterback. When he becomes a ball carrier, he gets downhill fast and finishes with good pad level. Chip Kelly often used Lyerla as a running back in certain Oregon formations. Although more of an H-Back than an in-line tight end, Lyerla demonstrates skill with certain perimeter blocks and handled his in-line assingments with good technique. He has potential to get better in this phase of the game.
Weaknesses: Lyerla came from a difficult home environment and it lead to erratic and criminal behavior that got him kicked out of Oregon. He needed a judge's approval to accept an invitation to the combine. He's the type of player who could offer fantasy owners and NFL fans all they hoped for on the field one week and be out of the league the next. If he matures into a reliable professional his one weakness on the field is that he's not the size of an in-line blocker. However, this is not how the Packers envisioned using him when they gave Lyerla a tryout.
2014 Outlook: This could be the riskiest year to own Lyerla, but it's also the one where he'll come the cheapest in fantasy leagues. If he sticks with the team, the Packers have a void at tight end that he could fill with excellent production. While Andrew Quarless, Brandon Bostick, and Ryan Taylor offer veteran knowledge and consistency, none offer the versatility that Lyerla can bring as an Aaron Hernandez-type option that can play fullback, halfback, wing back, the slot, or split end. If Lyerla makes a smooth transition, he could offer top-12 fantasy upside at the tight end position. However, based on his past, it's best to consider him a late-round pick with tremendous potential.
Dynasty Outlook: Lyerla was my No.1 pre-draft tight end in the April edition of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio based on talent only, but I anticipated he migth not get drafted. As a UDFA on a short leash with the Packers, he's worth a taking at the turn of the second and third rounds of rookie drafts as the No.2 tight end on my list. He remains a high-risk, high-reward prospect in dynasty leagues much like Isaiah Crowell, Josh Gordon, Dez Bryant, and Justin Blackmon.
Comparison: On and off the field, Lyerla compares to Aaron Hernandez. He has the physical skill to become a dynamic game changer, but he's not as strong as Hernandez. Off the field, anyone who is dealing drugs becomes a larger risk as someone capable of inflicting or receiving bodily harm off the field--and drug dealing can be far more dangerous than on professional football.
Jace Amaro, New York Jets
Strengths: A sturdy athlete with power and balance as a ball carrier, Amaro earned acclaim as a move tight end split from the line of scrimmage as a slot receiver or perimeter option. When allowed to exploit open seams as a zone receiver he thrives because he can break the first tackle and carry defenders for extra yards.
Weaknesses: Amaro's man-to-man route skills are overstated. He has to learn better techniques with releases against press coverage--especially developing a first move to attack the opponent and win the matchup early. He can catch the ball with his hands, but he needs to extend his arms from his body to attack the ball with greater consistency. Otherwise, he'll continue to drop passes in pivotal moments of drives where the defense delivers contact as the target arrives. Although Amaro has the size to become a quality in-line blocker, the Texas Tech offense rarely used Amaro as a run blocker or pass protector. When Amaro was blocking, he had good mismatches and the types of blocks weren't indicative of what he'll have to demonstrate as a pro.
2014 Outlook: The Jets have a good option in Jeff Cumberland who can still get better, but Amaro offers the potential for New York to operate a multiple offense where the quarterback can move Amaro around the formation to create matchup issues that benefit both the tight end and other skill options. At the same time, the quarterback situation is cloudy and it's looking like one of those seasons where one passer starts, but another finishes. If the Jets switch from Michael Vick to Geno Smith or vice versa, rapport and what each quarterback does best will play a key role in who earns quality targets. Amaro is at best a late-round re-draft option with swing for the fences upside.
Dynasty Outlook: Depending on the risk aversion of you or your league mates with Colt Lyerla and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Amaro could be rated as the second or fourth tight end among rookie options. Amaro has TE1 upside and if he learns the block, he has the potential to displace Cumberland as the starter. If Cumberland continues to develop and the Jets decide a two-tight end offense offers them the offensive flexibility and matchups that they've seen from division rival New England, Amaro could have even higher upside if he gets to play an Aaron Hernandez type of role in the open field. Just remember that Amaro isn't as fast or agile as Hernandez and this type of offense needs a quality pocket passer, which Vick hasn't been and Smith will have to prove he can be.
Comparison: Jason Witten is a better athlete, a great blocker, and a clutch receiver so comparing Amaro to the Cowboys' great is more in spirit of physical dimensions and potential use in an offense. Amaro is closer in skill level to Brandon Myers, but with greater physical potential than the journeyman that has posted quality production when called upon.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Strengths: The Buccaneers' rookie uses his height well as a receiver. Give him a sail route or a fade at the sideline or red zone and he has the timing, athletic fluidity, and hands to win the ball in tight coverage. If he gets to his top speed in the open field, he's difficult to wrangle. Similar in size to Jace Amaro, Seferian-Jenkins is a more accomplished blocker. If Tampa's new prospect proves that his foot injury inhibited his full range athleticism, Seferian-Jenkins could be a bargain even as one of he top five rookies at his position.
Weaknesses: Seferian-Jenkins did not show the top end speed on tape that reflects the 4.5-second 40 that his team and/or agent reported late in the pre-draft process. When jammed at the line of scrimmage or bumped down field the contact throws off Seferian-Jenkin's concentration and he's prone to dropping passes that he should catch. There's potential for him to develop and all-around game, but he has to use his hands better as a blocker and receiver working at the line of scrimmage.
2014 Outlook: Tim Wright did a fine job as a pass catcher, but he's a big possession receiver from Rutgers converting to tight end last year. Seferian-Jenkins on the basis of his blocking has an opportunity to start immediately in an offense where he should have open creases for him courtesy of Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Low-end TE1 production is within reach for Seferian-Jenkins if he can capture a stranglehold on the starting role. However, there is still a possibility that Tim Wright could be the slot passing option and the rookie is confined to shorter routes and/or pass protection. Like most rookies at his position, he's a late-round option, at best.
Dynasty Outlook: In a couple of years, Seferian-Jenkins offers consistent fantasy upside that is within the realm of Brandon Pettigrew or Jermaine Gresham if the offense doesn't confine him to blocking. If he wins the starting role outright and relegates Tim Wright to the bench, Seferian Jenkins could become a mid-range fantasy TE1 along the lines of Marcedes Lewis' better efforts.
Comparison: Lewis is a good comparison based on build and potential. Neither are game-breakers, but they use their height and build-up speed well to win the ball down field. They're both the type of players who can become anonymous in a passing offense, but can also provide quality fantasy value if utilized.
Troy Niklas, Arizona Cardinals
Strengths: Big, strong, and fluid as a receiver on passes thrown over his head, Niklas is a raw prospect from Notre Dame who used to play linebacker. He has good hands and often attacks the ball at the early stages of the target. He's big enough to break the first tackle in the open field and as a blocker he can move defensive ends and linebackers off the line of scrimmage when his technique is good. If Niklas shows he's a fast learner and works at his craft, he could offer similar or greater upside as Seferian-Jenkins because he has the speed to stretch the seam.
Weaknesses: Although regarded by many draft analysts as an excellent blocker, Niklas has work to do. He drops his head into too many attempts and gives up his position while minimizing his physical strengths in the act of blocking. He's often late to spots as a perimeter blocker or lead blocker in the flats. His 4.55-second 40 time is impressive, but his 4.50-second 20-yard time and 7.57-second shuttle are among the worst times at the combine this year and this lack of quickness often showed on tape. He's relatively new to the position and his learning curve just grew steeper.
2014 Outlook: John Carlson has been an underrated tight in the league for a while. He and Rob Housler might split duties this year before Housler's contract expires at season's end. However, I expect Carlson to win the job outright. Look for Niklas to earn spot duty, but as long as Carlson stays healthy, Niklas has little to no fantasy value.
Dynasty Outlook: Niklas is what scouts call a projectable player--meaning he fits a lot of the athletic prototypes for a team's specific needs. In Bruce Arians' case, Niklas projects as a potential short to intermediate option with the size and strength to help the ground game. If Niklas' demonstrates more quickness on the field than he showed in workouts, he could grow into a low-end TE1--if not better between the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.
Comparison: Niklas has Rob Gronkowski's physical dimensions, but lacks the same athleticism. It's more realistic for Niklas to possess Jerramy Stevens' upside (50-500-5), but Kellen Davis downside depending on his development.
Quick Hits
Crockett Gillmore, Baltimore Ravens: Quicker than fast, but fluid enough as a receiver to win the ball high or low and in tight coverage, Gillmore is an under the radar option worth monitoring. He's a quality blocker who should get better. Look for him to challenge for time as a contributor in the Baltimore offense by year three.
C.J. Fiedorowicz, Houston Texans: The former Iowa tight end is a scout's favorite because many of them claim he wasn't a great fit with the Iowa program and under-utilized as a downfield receiver. Fiedorowicz has good quickness and exhibits it on routes breaking to the quarterback. His hands are reliable, too. If he proves the scouts right, he could eventually become an option in the Houston passing game. The Texans will use two-tight end sets and Fiedorowicz might be first in line for the starting role as the in-line blocker, which is something he does good enough to win it.
Richard Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: One of the more enigmatic options in this tight end class, Rodgers has played at both 245 pounds and 270 pounds. However, this is what Cal asked Rodgers to do and in one sense it's a positive of his ability to do either. When closer to the 245-lb. range, Rodgers displays a quick first step and the agility to make the first man miss. He flashes enough ability to as a move tight end that I can see why the Packers took him in the third round, but the consistency has to improve. If Lyerla pans out, Rodgers could be the odd man out if he doesn't develop fast enough to beat one of the veterans on the dpeth chart.
Jake Murphy, Oakland Raiders: Son of former Braves center fielder and NL MVP Dale Murphy, the Raiders' new tight end has excellent hands and makes quality plays against tight coverage. He can make the first man miss or run through a tackle. If he adds more weight and develops as a blocker he could surprise as a contributor. His special teams play is good enough that he could earn a shot to stick this year.
Joe Don Duncan, Indianapolis Colts: A small school prospect from Dixie State, Duncan suffered an unusual leg fracture near his knee that forced him to miss two years of his colledge career and endure multiple surgeries. He had a huge senior year operating in a "move" role much like Jace Amaro. At 6'3", 268 pounds, Duncan was by far the strongest tight end at the combine. His balance, power, and hands are fanastic, but the small school, lack of playing time due to injury, and potential concerns about his leg dropped him from draft day consideration. He might have the best hands of the prospects in this class, but finding an opportunity due to these obstacles might be tough to overcome. A great swing for the fences if he sticks with a team and eventually earns a role in a lineup.
A.C. Leonard, Minnesota Vikings: The former Florida tight end lost the competition with Jordan Reed for the starting job and wound up at Tennessee State. Leonard has athleticism that rivals Reed's but his effort was far more inconsistent as a blocker and route runner. He has vision and agility after the catch to become a factor, but like Cornelius Ingram, another former Florida product who flashed in his rookie camp before fizzling out due to injury, Leonard has to show he can be a mature professional who works at his craft. Leonard is flashing good work early in Vikings' camp so he's worth a late pick to until it's time to cut rosters.
