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BUYING
Fresh out of a game that included 4 turnovers and 0 touchdowns, Kaepernick passed by the toughest game on his schedule (@SEA) and has a good matchup on tap. In Week 1, the Colts relinquished a breakout game for Terrelle Pryor and then gave up 314 passing yards to Ryan Tannehill in Week 2. This may be the only opportunity to trade for the services of the bonafide, high-end QB1.
As expected, it was tough sledding for Richardson against the Ravens defense. However, Cleveland did get him more involved, upping his touches from 15 to 23, which is positive news with the schedule beginning to ease up for the Browns. Although Brandon Weeden’s injury isn’t ideal for Richardson’s production, it shouldn’t be much of a blow either and may force the team to lean more heavily on the running game. Also, Josh Gordon will be returning and his presence will help to vertically stretch-out opposing defenses. Richardson is an elite talent and elite production is about to begin.
After 22 touches in Week 1, the Bills made sure to get the ball into Spiller’s hands again. He recorded 103 yards on 16 carries and 26 more yards on 4 catches. On pace for 264 carries and 72 receptions, you shouldn't worry about Fred Jackson's role. Additionally, Spiller has yet to reach the end zone, which also has kept his price tag at a reasonable level. Hope that his owner is worrying about Jackson and the lack of touchdowns and see if you can steal him away.
A fumble in the opener sent Ridley to the bench, ruining his first week, and then a tough Jets defense stymied the New England running game in Week 2. With Shane Vereen sidelined, the Patriots have no choice but to feed the ball to Ridley and the fantasy points will follow. He has a tough matchup versus the stout Tampa Bay run defense up next, which may extend his buy low window another week.
Do not rush to buy Johnson, but instead be patient. Through the first two weeks, Johnson has amassed 50 carries, but hasn’t been able to break off any big runs yet. The lack of use in the passing game (only 1 reception so far) also detracts from his value, but he could become a key fantasy player in the stretch run. To begin the season, he has faced a couple tough defenses and the schedule is brutal all the way through Week 9, including matchups with SF, SEA and NYJ. Johnson is a player to keep an eye on and then try to make a deal for just before your leagues trading deadline as the Titans’ schedule opens up for the second half.
As detailed in his player outlook, Gordon possesses all the measureables of a #1 receiver and he should fit well in Norv Turner’s vertical passing system. He has served his two-game suspension and should be viewed as no worse than a WR3 with WR2 upside. The absence of Weeden in Gordon's first game back along with some possible rust may deflate his value before he turns on the jets.
After playing only 58% of the Jets snaps in Week 1, Holmes was on the field for 93% of snaps in Week 2. He also saw his targets rise to 7, which was up from the 2 he received in the first game. His toe-tapping sideline catch versus the Patriots looked as if he was in peak form and character issues aside, he remains the best receiver on the team. Just a year ago, he was shaping up to be a target hog and that may resume shortly in 2013. Even in this offense, he possesses WR3 potential, especially in PPR formats, and can be had for cheap.
SELLING
So far, the touches have kept coming Foster’s way even though Ben Tate has clearly been the more effective runner. Injury risk, along with the fact that Tate is nipping at Foster’s heels are two strong reasons to consider unloading Foster after he posted solid yardage numbers (83 total yards) and a touchdown along with a two-point conversion.
Not only has McFadden survived through two games this season, he actually broke 100+ yards versus Jacksonville en route to totaling 157 yards on 23 touches. The matchup was tasty and he took advantage of it. Now it’s time for his current fantasy owners to take advantage of his positive start and move him while the the price is right.
Before selling, let's first wait for some more news to break on Ray Rice. With Rice sidelined for any period of time, Pierce would become a high-end RB2 and should be firmly planted into all starting lineups. If Rice won't be missing any time and you only own Pierce, then there may not be a better time to offer him up to the owner of Rice and feed off of their worry. As long as Rice is on the field, Pierce will be no more than an inconsistent Flex play.
Jermichael Finley & James Jones
Finley’s upside has always been there and he’s produced to open up the season, catching at least 5 passes for 56 yards and 1 touchdown in both games. You also won’t find many #3 wide receivers posting better production than Jones, who racked up 11 catches and 178 yards in Week 2. However, in an offense loaded with playmakers and with Randall Cobb / Jordy Nelson locked in as options 1A / 1B, consistency will be hard to come by for these two. Jones recording zero receptions in Week 1 is a perfect example of that.
Hot out of the gates with 10 receptions for 125 yards and 3 touchdowns, Bennett is on an unsustainable pace. Quite simply, he is a borderline TE1 that has posted elite numbers so far. That type of over-production makes for a rather basic sell-high situation.
WAIVER PICKUPS
James Starks
After Eddie Lacy was sidelined due to a concussion, Starks jumped in and skated to a monster line: 20-132-1 on the ground and 4-46-0 as a receiver. According to the Green Bay Press-Gazette, the "most likely scenario" for Lacy is a Week 5 return, which leaves Starks to pick up the heavy lifting for another game. Starks should be picked up and plugged in as a Flex play in Week 3.
Atlanta’s starting running back, Steven Jackson, suffered a thigh injury early in the Falcons’ Week 2 game and has already been ruled out for Week 3. Jackson is currently being considered week-to-week and it’s possible that he may miss 2-3 games. Rodgers will step up into the lead role and should be added in all leagues, with increased value in PPR formats. He seems to recieve much unwarranted criticism from skeptics, but he should fill in nicely as a Flex play during Jackson’s absence. In Atlanta’s two playoff games last season, which were versus the tough Seahawks and 49ers defenses, Rodgers toted the ball 20 times for 96 yards. Listed at a compact 5’6” 196 lbs, he also possesses surprising power that was on display when he trucked Pro-Bowl safety, Earl Thomas in the game versus Seattle. Jason Snelling would complement Rodgers as the short-yardage back during Jackson’s absence.
Of all the running backs in the Cardinals stable, Ellington's explosiveness and big-play ability leads him to have the highest potential. He has quickly emerged as the third-down-back and Bruce Arians recently stated that Ellington is a player that "can carry the load." In Week 2, he carried the ball 4 times for 20 yards and added 3 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. It's time to stash him on the bench in the event that he earns more carries or Rashard Mendenhall suffers an injury.
Without a doubt, Hopkins is a worthy heir to Andre Johnson and Nuk flashed his WR1 potential after a concussion sidelined Johnson this past week. He should be owned in all leagues, but remains only a WR3/4 for as long as Johnson is on the field. In the absence of Johnson, Hopkins instantly becomes a capable WR2, which makes him a rare handcuff-type wide receiver. However, after two strong games to begin the season, his value will likely be inflated and he makes for a strong sell in redraft leagues.
Owners did not rush to pick up Royal after he posted two touchdowns in Week 1 on 3 catches and 24 yards. However, he will almost assuredly be scraped up off of the waiver wire after posting a 7-reception, 90-yard, 3-touchdown performance. While he has performed well in the past (WR20 in 2008), his start still seems more likely to be an outlier than a sign of things to come. Even with his hot start considered, I have trouble viewing him as anything more than a WR4/5.
After a preseason in which Clay looked as if he might lose the starting job that Dustin Keller left behind, Clay has recorded 5 catches in each of Miami's first two games. With less-than-stellar protection, Ryan Tannehill will be forced to dump off plenty of passes this season and Clay should be among the biggest beneficiaries. It also doesn't hurt that he may punch in another goal-line touchdown here and there. He's a more than suitable TE2 that can be
GRONK WATCH
Another week has passed and Gronkowksi’s return grows that much closer. If you’d like to secure his services, it’s time to start looking to make a deal. It’s possible that he misses one more game or underperforms in his first week back, so the buy-low window may not close that quickly. In fact, his price could even decrease further if his owner’s team finds themselves in a deeper hole while Gronkowski regains his elite form.
You can find me on Twitter, @KyleWachtel, where I’d be happy to answer any of your questions
