BUYING
Eddie Lacy RB GB
The price tag won’t be cheap, but you may still be able to get Lacy as a bargain from those who aren't sold on him continuing his success. He has risen to the elite among running backs and would be a first round pick in fantasy drafts today. Over the past five weeks, he’s recorded at least 22 carries in each game en route to averaging 109 rushing yards during that span. His efficiency may drop a little with Aaron Rodgers out, but his touches surely will not.
DeMarco Murray DAL
After a speedy recovery from an MCL sprain, Murray looked surprisingly spry versus Minnesota on Sunday. The problem was that he only received four carries. Tony Romo is a damn fine quarterback, but the Cowboys will assuredly look to get their lead back more involved going forward, which makes Murray a terrific buy-low right now.
Chris Ivory RB NYJ
I bought a lot of Ivory stock this offseason. Just how much did I like him to breakthrough? Well, let's just say I purchased the advertising spot on his Pro Football Reference page shortly after the trade went down for the minimum price. It took a little while, but he’s now healthy and running angry. The Jets are back in the playoff hunt with a decimated receiving corps, which means that they’re going to put all their marbles on the ground-and-pound offense that brought them to back-to-back AFC Championships. Lock him into those starting lineups.
Darren Sproles RB NO
When you fall off a horse, it’s best to get back on. While that’s not always true when it comes to fantasy football, that's what I’m doing by including Sproles as a buy-low player again after an early concussion led to another disappointing week for the PPR dynamo. He still needs to get cleared for Week 10 and it’s very possible that he does miss that game. However, he will have a role on this offense when he returns and was on pace for 82 receptions and 837 prior to this past week’s game. His owners have to be frustrated with him and willing to part for a reasonable price.
Vincent Jackson WR TB
On the heels of his worst game of the season (two catches for 11 yards on just four targets), Jackson still remains on pace for a strong 86-1268-8 line. Mike Glennon has proven capable of getting the ball into his hands and V-Jax will get back on track for a relatively matchup-friendly second half.
Cecil Shorts WR JAC
Even with his early exit in the Jaguars' Week 6 game during the first possession, Shorts is on pace for 92 receptions and 1,130 yards. He has also seen 10+ targets in every game except Week 6, averaging a whopping 11.9 targets in those games, and removing that shortened game, Shorts’ extrapolation would rise to 105 catches and 1,291 yards. With Justin Blackmon suspended for the rest of the season, that type of high-end production can be expected.
Roddy White WR ATL
In what is a lost season for the Falcons, White finally conceded and is now sitting out to recover from the nagging injuries that have plagued him this season. Atlanta will face the Seahawks and Buccaneers in the next two weeks, which bring with them Richard Sherman and Darrelle Revis respectively, but the Falcons' schedule opens up after that for Week 12 through Week 15. A healthy White would return to being a safe WR2 and strong addition for the stretch run.
Jordan Reed TE WAS
The rookie has rapidly developed into a strong TE1 and was a buy last week. After what was a mediocre game this past Sunday (4-37-0), there remains a nice little window to snatch Reed from owners that are not yet sold on him. If you’re an owner that’s juggling tight ends week-to-week, then this is a buy worth pursuing very hard.
SELLING
Chris Johnson RB TEN
While I have been advocating Johnson as a buy-low candidate all season to target prior to last week’s game, I’m now willing to cash in my chips if the price is right. Johnson should be viewed as a strong RB2 for the remainder of the season, but he’s the type of player that leads many owners have flashbacks to his past after strong outings. If a league mate’s eyes are glowing and envision him as the CJ2K of old, then open up the trade talks.
Stevan Ridley RB NE
Another week, another feast for Ridley as he notched two touchdowns en route to racking up a season high 115 rushing yards on 26 carries. The Patriots have the Bye in Week 10 and then Shane Vereen is expected to return in Week 11. While Ridley has been performing as an RB1 lately, that production is likely to take a substantial hit when Vereen does get back on the field.
Lamar Miller RB MIA
After setting a season highs with 21 touches and 112 total yards in Week 8, Miller followed that up with 129 total yards on 20 touches this past Sunday versus the Bengals. I’m going against the grain here and would be looking for a safer option for the rest of the way. The Dolphins offensive line wasn’t very good to begin with (Footballguy Matt Bitonti ranked them as 5th worse in the NFL) and their two recent losses have been highly publicized. Not to mention, although Miller has been productive of late, the team has stubbornly kept Daniel Thomas involved - 37% of offensive snaps and 13 touches this past Sunday.
Wide Receivers GB
The loss of Aaron Rodgers is a massive blow to the value of all Packers’ receivers. Jordy Nelson was a top-six option with him, but can only be viewed as an ordinary WR2 with Seneca Wallace under center. Jarrett Boykin was filling Randall Cobb’s role admirably, but falls from WR2/3 consideration to a mere Flex option. Lastly, James Jones’ value was already low and won’t provide much return, but his return to WR2 value that I projected last week will be put on hold until Rodgers is able to resume playing.
WAIVER PICKUPS
Nick Foles QB PHI
Seven touchdowns. That’s just ridiculous. I’m very grateful for Chip Kelly’s presence in the NFL and Foles’ performance has nearly erased his poor showing versus the Cowboys from recent memory. The Eagles do have some prime matchups in the coming weeks and Foles’ confidence is riding high. He’s a viable, high-upside starter through the rest of the season with the potential to bust in one or two games, but can be started with confidence in at least four of the Eagles next six games.
Rashad Jennings RB OAK
The first time that Darren McFadden was sidelined, Jennings then suffered a hamstring injury himself and his production was held in check. This time around he’s healthy again and had a monster game after taken over the lead role this past Sunday: 15 carries for 102 and a touchdown on the ground, while adding seven catches for 74 yards in the air. There’s a nice matchup versus the Giants on deck and Jennings should be locked in as an RB2 in McFadden's absence..
Chris Ogbonnaya RB CLE
After realizing that Willis McGahee’s days as an effective running back have passed (2.6 yards-per-carry on 100 rushing attempts), the Browns coaching staff is considering “Ogbonnaya getting more carries.” Ogbonnaya has averaged 5.3 yards-per-carry on his 19 carries to go along with notable usage as a receiver (28 receptions on 40 targets this season in a limited role). With more touches, he may very well sneak his way into Flex consideration, especially in PPR leagues.
Aaron Dobson WR NE
After nine weeks, it’s finally safe to say that Dobson has stepped up and settled into the Patriots X-receiver role that was vacated by Brandon Lloyd. During the first four games, Dobson saw only 56% of the team’s offensive snaps. In the last four games, his snap percentage has risen to 78% and although it’s a small sample size, his numbers in those games would translate to 72 receptions and 1148 receiving yards over a 16-game season.
Mike Brown WR JAC
While Blackmon’s absence helps ensure top production from Shorts III, it also allows for Brown to move into the WR3 conversation. Over the Jaguars past three games, he saw an average of 5.7 targets, 4.0 catches and 70.7 yards. His 17.7 yards-per-reception will likely drop, but an increase in targets should provide the opportunity for him to hover close to those 70.7 yards per game.
Nate Burleson WR DET
Before breaking his arm, Burleson averaged 6.3 catches and 79.7 receiving yards through the season’s first three weeks. A Week 11 return now seems like the most likely scenario and he would then resume his duties as the #2 WR for Detroit - a role filled nicely by Kris Durham in Burleson’s absence - and would be a decent fill-in starter.
*All snap counts and targets in this article are courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com
You can find me on Twitter, @KyleWachtel, where I’d be happy to answer any of your questions.