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BUYING
His Buy-Low window is wide open right now after another underwhelming stat-line. In miserable weather conditions, he completed less than half of his passes, failed to reach 200 yards and was unable to extend his 52-game streak with a touchdown pass. With Danny Amendola back and Rob Gronkowski expected to return for the Week 6 game, the Sun is beginning to peer out of the clouds and that Buy-Low window may be slammed shut.
When healthy, he’s undoubtedly a high-end QB1 and looked to be on his way to a monster game versus the Giants this past Sunday before a hamstring injury ended his day. Early indications were that the he may be sidelined two weeks, but he then began practicing in a limited capacity on Tuesday. The game versus the Buccaneers this week wasn't all to enticing to begin with and his owners should still plan to be without him for 1-2 weeks. Nevertheless, once he does return, he will face what is arguably the most QB friendly schedule for the second half of the season and he could likely be had for a nice discount right now.
His sophomore season has largely been a disappointment, but it’s not due to his performance. In fact, Morris has rumbled to the tune of 5.3 yards-per-carry, which is even an improvement from the 4.8 in his first year. During that rookie season, he averaged nearly 21 carries per game. Through the first four games of 2013, he has only recorded 14 carries per game. The atrocious Washington defense may have attributed to that as it has forced the offense to rely more on the passing game while the team plays from behind. However, running the ball with Morris early and often to help sustain long drives would go a long way towards digging RGIII & Co. out of their early 1-3 hole and you should expect Mike Shanahan to start doing just that.
Johnson still has a couple more games left of the brutal stretch of tough matchups that were mentioned in the Week 3 Report, so don't buy on him just yet. After these next two games versus the 49ers and Seahawks, the Titans then have a Week 9 Bye that leads into a friendly second half, which may allow him to become a key fantasy contributor for the stretch run.
It’s no secret that there is a world of difference in the talent levels of Miller and Daniel Thomas; after Miller battled with Thomas for snaps to begin the season, the playing time weighed heavily in Miller’s favor this past Sunday (45 snaps to Thomas’ 11 snaps). Miller has a real shot to feast on the Bills defense after the Dolphins’ Week 6 Bye and then establish himself as an every-week RB2.
Ranking fourth in the NFL with 55 targets, Johnson remains a target monster. Last season, he recorded 112 receptions and 1598 yards. Through the early part of 2013, he is currently on pace for 118 catches and 1302 yards. The Texans have also faced a tough schedule to begin the season, with matchups that included the Seahawks and 49ers, but that should ease up the rest of the way. With zero touchdowns so far, regression is bound to set in soon as well. When you add in the quarterback controversy for added drama, Johnson can likely be had for a discounted price.
When asked about Alshon Jeffery being like a second #1 WR, Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune quoted Jay Cutler as saying, “B is our number one. That's kind of the end of the story right there." The targets will begin to flow back towards Marshall and he will reclaim his high-end WR1 status very soon. A soft schedule lies ahead for the Bears, starting with the Giants this Thursday, and the time is now to acquire him.
SELLING
There likely will not be much of a market, but it’s time to try getting whatever you can for the former RB1. So far, he has managed only a pathetic 2.8 YPC and the running lanes won’t be opening up anytime soon. The Jaguars traded their away their starting Left Tackle, Eugene Monroe, last week and they have now lost their new starting Left Tackle, Luke Joeckel, who was their 2013 First Round selection, for the season due to a broken ankle. The 86 total yards versus the Rams reeling defense may possibly be the climax of MJD’s season and all hope for a comeback season is fleeting. Additionally, the recent trade rumors serve better as means to fluff up his value than a potential boon to his production.
Once again, Powell led the Jets running backs in touches with 13 and he may still be lead dog, but the pack is growing. After he failed to make a substantial impact versus Atlanta, the peak time to sell him was likely last week, but it’s better late than never. Both, Chris Ivory and Mike Goodson saw time on the field and the New York backfield is likely to become a committee that inhibits any of them from becoming a fantasy starter barring an injury.
At 31 years-of-age, McGahee is only a stop-gap solution for the rebuilding Browns and he has been terribly inefficient. With 26 carries versus one of the NFL’s worst run defenses, he could only muster 72 yards at a blustering 2.8 yards-per-carry. Hope that another owner is intrigued by the volume of touches and ship him away before the reality of his demise sets in.
While the totals are present (on pace for 76 catches, 1,356 yards and eight touchdowns), he has been held to four or less catches in three of the Packers’ four games this season. His 17.8 yards-per-reception will soon normalize as well. Looking to trade the ultimate boom-or-bust WR3 after a boom week is always a good idea.
This is a similar situation to that of Jones’ above. Hilton is a young, talented receiver with the brightest future of all the Colts’ wide receivers, but he’s also experienced major inconsistencies that will likely continue throughout this year. During the season’s first five games, Hilton has recorded over 124 receiving yards in two of them and been held to an average of 26 yards in the other three.
Buying or selling
The news of Jonathan Stewart’s return has likely began to decrease Williams’ price tag and rightfully so, but an actual return date for Stewart and any indications of him being any bit effective are still absent. Stewart is recovering from surgeries on both of his ankles and Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer recently reported that the Panthers’ Head Coach, Ron Rivera, isn’t sure if he will be ready for Week 7. That’s why this can go either way right now. At the very least, Williams will be the lead guy for next Sunday and possibly the juicy Week 7 matchup versus the Rams too. If you have him, see what you can fetch for him, but don’t give him away. If you don’t have him, perhaps his owner will relinquish him for a fair price that accounts for a possible Stewart return, which in the end, is still very much up in the air.
WAIVER WIRE
There’s fantasy points to be had in Eagles offense and Foles has looked competent at the helm. He ascends to a matchup-based QB2 for as long as Vick is sidelined. While he may be best left on the bench in standard leagues for the Buccaneers game, he would be an intriguing start versus the Cowboys in the following week if Vick remains out.
After both Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead underwhelmed as ball-carriers, Stacy was handed the reins and on just 14 carries, he ran for 78 yards - the rushing total was a season-high from all Rams running backs. However, the performance should be taken with a grain of salt as it was versus a Jaguars defense that ranks last in rushing yards allowed and yards-per-carry allowed. Stacy should be picked up in all leagues, but is more of a trading commodity than a starter in fantasy.
The Raiders' running backs are dropping like flies. In Week 5, it was Darren McFadden and Reece that succombed to injuries. Then, in Week 6, Rashad Jennings followed suit an exited with a hamstring injury. Reece managed to take the field last week and may now be forced to step in as the lead back. Last season, in the first three games after McFadden was injured, Reece proved quite capable when he averaged 75 rushing yards on 15.7 carries and 58.3 receiving yards on 5 receptions per game.
Through the season’s first five games, Julio Jones has averaged 11.4 targets per game and now Matt Ryan will be forced to look elsewhere. Douglas is the next in line and until Roddy White proves healthy, Douglas will be the top wide receiver for the Falcons. He’s in line for a major boost in snaps and targets and can be viewed as a low-end WR3 heading forward.
Colin Kaepernick revitalized Crabtree’s career in 2012 and the receiver’s return may be just what the quarterback needs to recapture his form. In the last eight games of last season, including the playoffs, Kaepernick and Crabtree connected for an average of 102.9 receiving yards per game. Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee reported that Crabtree “is on schedule to be ‘game ready’ by mid to late November,” which would be around Weeks 10 and 11. In deeper leagues, it’s time to start considering storing Crabtree.
GRONK WATCH
His recovery has dragged on longer than expected, but all signs point to him being good to go for this week’s game. Avoiding the PUP list allowed him to get in a lot of valuable practice time and he should immediately become a focal point in the Patriots offense. Those owners that bided their time are about to be rewarded - that is if they managed to tread water in his absence - and skepticism of him returning to full bore would be the only source of a possible discount.
KICKER PLAY OF THE WEEK (Owned In Less Than 50% of ESPN Leagues)
Last week, Alex Henery notched five field goals and three extra points versus the Giants. The Bears offense shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball on Thursday night and Gould should see plenty of time on the field, which is a good thing for a kicker.
You can find me on Twitter, @KyleWachtel, where I’d be happy to answer any of your questions
