Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Buying
After opening the season with six total touchdowns in two nationally televised games, it seemed that trading for Vick would take a king’s ransom. The last two games have acted as a speed bump and Vick has only managed one touchdown in those outings. The first was versus a Kansas City defense that has developed into one of the NFL’s best units and the second was a blowout loss to the Broncos in which Vick was removed early after the game was decided. Vick has a great chance to get back on track versus the Giants this week and is then lined up for what seems like a very prosperous schedule through Week 11.
While Martin’s year is far from living up to the preseason expectations, he remains healthy and is being used as a workhorse back. Through four games, no running backs have received more carries than Martin’s 100, which would translate to 400 over a full season. To put that in perspective, Arian Foster led the league with 351 carries last season and no player has recorded more than 400 carries since Larry Johnson’s 416 in 2006. While Martin may be in store for an inefficient season, his production should more closely resemble a top-five running back from here-on-out than the mid-to-low end RB2 spot he currently occupies on the year.
The early portion of the 2013 season has not gone according to plan for Rice. He missed Week 3 after suffering a hip injury that he is still experiencing some discomfort from and he has also been underutilized when he is on the field. Averaging three yards per carry doesn’t help either, but this looks to be the low point of his season. He should still be treated as a fringe RB1 in standard leagues and a surefire RB1 in PPR. There’s a strong chance you can acquire him for a marked discount right now.
After fumbling his way into Tom Coughlin’s doghouse, Wilson has seen a slow but steady rise in touches and snaps in each successive week, reaching a season-high 15 touches on 29 snaps in Week 4. After the Giants offense has sputtered in back-to-back weeks to the tune of just seven combined points, they match up versus an Eagles defense that has allowed 105 rushing yards-per-game (6th worst in NFL) and 4.29 yard-per-carry (9th worst in the NFL). The time to trade for Wilson is now and if he is able to breakthrough, shipping him off after a one-week stay on your roster would be a tremendous feat of capitalizing on value.
There’s a new sheriff in the Cincinnati’s backfield. In the first two weeks, BenJarvus Green-Ellis saw just over 60% of the Bengals snaps and averaged 19 touches compared to Bernard seeing 36% of the snaps and an average of 7 touches. In the past two weeks, Bernard has now seen 65% of snaps and just 15 touches per game, while Green-Ellis is down to 33% of snaps and an average of 8 touches. While playing from behind in the past two games may have attributed to the difference, the talent gap that Bernard holds over his predecessor is undeniable and the rookie’s season should only get better from here-on-out.
Rashard Mendenhall continues to underwhelm while Ellington continues to impress in a limited role. The rookie running back from Clemson has averaged 6.2 yards on his 11 carries and has proved to be very effective as a receiver, grabbing 9 receptions for 113 yards and one touchdown. In a merit based world, Ellington would already have surpassed Mendenhall on the depth chart. For now, Ellington will be waiting in the wings and would become a strong week-to-week Flex for an offense that will be playing from behind more often than not.
Selling
The Jets found a pleasant surprise in Powell and he has handled the lead back duties well enough through the early part of the first season. His current numbers would translate to 1,168 on 264 carries and 44 receptions for an additional 432 yards over a full 16-game season. Now that Mike Goodson has finished serving his suspension and with Chris Ivory being worked back into the rotation once he returns, Powell is unlikely to near those current extrapolations. His owners can trot him back out as a Flex play for another week, but his value is close to its peak.
Kansas City continues to win ball games thanks in part to their stellar defense and work horse running back, Jamaal Charles. Much to the chagrin of Bowe’s fantasy owners, it does not seem that the Chiefs or Alex Smith will be straying from their conservative game plan, which makes a resurgence for Bowe unlikely. Finding a suitor for him after his “best” performance (4-58-1) would be the most prudent course of action.
Currently on pace for 104 receptions and 1,348 receiving yards, Shorts will be hard-pressed to stay on course to reach those numbers. In two starts, Blaine Gabbert has averaged a rather pathetic 150 passings yards and only 4.5 yards-per-attempt. The Jaguars would be wise to end the Gabbert experiment, but at this point their eyes may be set on a drafting a quarterback in the 2014 NFL Draft. Justin Blackmon is also set to return now that he has served his four game suspension and the rest of this season looks to be awfully choppy waters for Shorts.
After having all the opportunity in the world and disappointing to begin the season, Thompkins has found himself in the midst of an upswing; in Week 3 he posted a 3-41-2 line followed up by a 6-127-1 performance in Week 4. Sooner than later, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski will return and immediately demand targets. You will want to have unloaded Thompkins before that happens.
Waiver Wire
After two games and two wins as Cleveland’s starting quarterback, Hoyer should now have a stranglehold on the starting job for the rest of the season. The Browns have become a pass-first team and boast two top flight receivers in Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon. With a juicy matchup versus the Bills on deck, who have allowed an average of 298.75 passing yards and two touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks, Hoyer makes for a strong spot starter this week.
These days a Darren McFadden injury is more a matter of when than if and he promptly left this Sunday’s game after suffering a hamstring injury in the first quarter. Unfortunately, for McFadden’s owners, Marcel Reece, who filled in valiantly for McFadden last season, also suffered a knee injury and does not yet have a timetable for return. This leaves Jennings as the last man standing and he is in line for a heavy, but likely inefficient work load. With Bye weeks and injury stricken running backs around the league, Jennings should be scooped up and makes for a serviceable Flex play in the meantime.
Washington’s starting running back, Alfred Morris, has avoided fractured ribs and should be able to resume playing with the help of a well-timed Bye week. Even so, Helu is a great lottery ticket stash that would instantly become a strong RB2 in the event that Morris does miss any time this season.
The Jets are expected to be without both, Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill, for their Week 5 game versus Atlanta. Holmes’ hamstring injury may even keep him sideline for a few weeks. While Kerley is far from a sexy option, he is an underrated talent that has toiled in a poor environment for his short career and did manage to record 56 receptions and 827 receiving yards last season. He should be heavily relied upon this upcoming week and also maintain a sizeable role for as long as Holmes is absent.
Gronk Watch
In a surprising turn of events, Gronkowski was inactive for Week 4 and seems to now be a targeting a Week 6 return to ensure that he is fully recovered from his offseason surgeries. With all of the practice time under his belt, you can expect him to hit the ground running once he finally does hit the field. If his owners have had trouble staying afloat with him on their bench and you can afford to stash him, then Gronkowski makes for a terrific target.
Kicker Play of the Week
The Giants have given up the fourth most fantasy points to opposing kickers this season and the Eagles offense must be seething at the opportunity to line up versus New York’s beleaguered defense. Expect the offense to move the ball with ease and plenty of scoring opportunities to be presented for Henery.
