BUYING
Matthew Stafford QB DET
Heading into the season, Stafford was viewed as a threat to finish among the elite quarterbacks in fantasy. Instead, he's on pace for his lowest passing yards (4,281) and passing touchdowns (18.9) since 2010 when his season ended prematurely after suffering a torn labrum. He currently ranks 16th among quarterbacks in total fantasy points and has only four weeks inside the top-12 at the position. Detroit has a favorable schedule ahead with two games versus Chicago and one game versus Tampa Bay and Minnesota. Even if Stafford doesn't improve himself, look for a healthy Calvin Johnson to elevate his production towards that of a mid-QB1.
Chris Ivory RB NYJ
It's been a turbulent season for Ivory thanks in part to New York's shuffling of running backs and also the tough schedule that has not allowed the Jets to stay with the ground game. It won't get much easier in Weeks 13 and 14 either, when the team plays Miami and Minnesota. However, Ivory has been effective when given the ball and is on pace for 210 touches, 1,000 total yards, and just over seven touchdowns. In the all-important Week 15, the Jets will have their opportunity to run all over a Titans defense that has been ravaged by opposing runnings backs all season. Ivory can likely be had for cheap or even found on the waiver wire and for that Week 15 game, he projects as a low-end RB2 or strong Flex play.
Fred Jackson RB BUF
Jackson may have returned too quickly after suffering a groin injury, but thankfully the team held him out for Week 11 and he was able to build on his snaps and touches from Week 10 (27 and seven respectively) in Week 12 (33 and 16 respectively). He should continue to trend upwards and has a fine set of matchups to finish out the season; those include Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, and Oakland. Of the group, only Denver boasts a strong run defense, but Jackson's usage in the passing game should support low-end RB2 value even in that game.
Mark Ingram RB NO
After a three-week parade where Ingram averaged 27 carries, 131 rushing yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game, his momentum has slowed over these past two weeks. Versus Cincinatti in Week 11, he managed only 67 rushing yards on 23 carries and then fared even worse versus Baltimore in Week 12, totaling just 27 rushing yards on 11 carries - he failed to record a touchdown in either game. However, he should be expected to right the ship over the next few weeks when New Orleans takes on Pittsburgh, Carolina, and Atlanta - all three of those teams boast run defenses that are mediocre at best, making Ingram a strong RB2.
Andre Johnson WR HOU
The twelve-year veteran is now 33 years of age, so it's only natural for him to have lost a step, but he remains talented enough to hold fantasy value near the WR2/3 border. He's currently on pace for 84 receptions and 970 receiving yards, but only 1.4 touchdowns. However, he ranks 10th in the NFL with 99 targets. There's no reason to expect those targets to slow down, so the receptions should keep coming and he should find the end zone more regularly as a result.
Calvin Johnson WR DET
It has been a frustrating season for Johnson's fantasy owners; with 11 games in the books, he has missed three of them and has had his snaps greatly limited in two more. He currently ranks 40th in STD and 45th in PPR. He's also on the heels of two disappointing outings where he's been held under five receptions and 60 yards without recording any touchdowns. Brush of all of the disappointment though; he remains the NFL's premier wide receiver and has the same appetizing plate of games on deck as Stafford.
DeSean Jackson WR WAS
Despite the quarterback turmoil, Jackson has proven that he remains one of the best deep threats in the NFL and is on pace for 61 receptions, 1,248 receiving yards, and 5.8 touchdowns. As with any big-play receiver, there is a high degree of variance week-to-week, but he's capable of posting a difference making stat line in any week. Even if Robert Griffin III III is to lose the starting job, Colt McCoy connected with Jackson for six receptions and 136 yards in his only start. Currently, Jackson is on his worst two-game stretch of the season, having recorded less than 40 yards in each of the past two games, and the negativity surrounding the team may deflate his price even further.
Holdovers from last week's Forensics Report: Julio Jones WR ATL, Marques Colston WR NO, Sammy Watkins WR BUF
SELLING
Anthony Dixon RB BUF
A few weeks back, when C.J. Spiller and Jackson both were sidelined by injuries, Dixon was a hot ticket on the free agent wire. Surprisingly, his most productive fantasy outing came after Jackson returned and versus the Jets, who boast one of the NFL's premier run defenses. He ran for 54 yards and one touchdown on 12 carries while adding an eight-yard reception. The early exit of All-Pro defensive end, Muhammad Wilkerson, may have attributed to that success on the ground and this will likely be the peak of Dixon's season barring another injury to Jackson. There's still room for two-backs in the offense, but expect Dixon's to shrink further, rendering him nothing more than a poor Flex play.
Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
Now 12 weeks into the season, Lynch is on pace for 1,239 yards and 13.1 touchdowns on 279 carries with another 422 yards and 4.4 touchdowns on 39 receptions - those numbers are strong enough for him to rank as a top-four running back in STD and PPR scoring. However, the next four weeks, which takes us through the end of the fantasy football season, is arguably the toughest schedule for any running back. Seattle will face San Francisco in two of the next three weeks, before a rematch with Arizona, whose defense just bottled up Lynch this past weekend. Although it's tough to trade your studs, this shrewd move should pay huge dividends.
Ryan Mathews RB SD
San Diego's next four opponents are Baltimore, New England, Denver, and San Francisco - that stretch of games rivals the gauntlet faced by Lynch. Although Mathews has performed surprisingly well over the past two weeks, averaging 94 total yards per game, Branden Oliver has remained the preferred third-down back and the imposing schedule makes it tough to trust Mathews as more than a low-end RB2 going forward.
Robert Woods WR BUF
Woods is flying high after torching the Jets for nine receptions, 118 receiving yards, and one touchdown. However, even with that game, he's only on pace for a modest 66 receptions, 697 receiving yards, and 4.4 touchdowns. He's also been held to four or less receptions in eight of 11 games. This game is an outlier and he remains only a risky WR4 play at best.
Jarvis Landry WR MIA
Since receiving a full complement of snaps in Week 6, Landry has developed into Miami's most reliable receiver. His per game averages over those seven games would translate to 85 receptions, 775 receiving yards, and 11.4 touchdowns. However, Mike Wallace has still eclipsed him in targets during that timeframe, 49 to 44. The low yards-per-reception also hurts Landry's value in STD scoring, while the touchdown rate is unsustainable. He's a better NFL player than fantasy player and should be considered only a WR4 in STD with low-end WR3 value in PPR.
Holdovers from last week's Forensics Report: Jeremy Hill RB CIN, Terrance West RB CLE, Andrew Hawkins WR CLE
WAIVER PICKUPS
Daniel Herron RB IND
Shortly before the Week 12 game, Herron was announced as a starter reportedly due to Trent Richardson being "under the weather." Richardson still ended up leading the team in snaps (42), but managed only 42 yards on 13 carries, although he did score a touchdown, and did not see any targets. Herron played on 33 snaps, totaling 65 yards on 12 carries and securing all five targets for 31 yards. He did fumble the ball once, but was clearly the more effective player and with the disparity in the passing game usage, he may ultimately fill the entire void left by Ahmad Bradshaw, leaving nothing else to gain for Richardson. He needs to be rostered and is headed toward weekly RB3/Flex stature at worst with added value in PPR leagues.
Dri Archer RB PIT
Archer is far from a prototypical running back at 5'8" and 173 lbs, but he would be in line for a substantial role if Le'Veon Bell were to miss any time. While he would likely split time with Josh Harris and play a secondary role as a rusher, he would be highlighted in the passing game. Bell is currently on pace for a hefty 83 receptions and much of that work would slide into the hands of the elusive Archer, who would be especially valuable as a handcuff for Bell owners in PPR leagues.
LeGarrette Blount RB NE
In line with everything that is Bill Belichick, Blount was signed by New England earlier in the week and then goes on to pile up 78 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries. There's production to be had in the Patriots' amorphous backfield, but good luck finding it. Don't be surprised to see Jonas Gray return to handle the early down work next week after being penalized for showing up late to a practice. All things considered, he's worth rostering in the event he does hold onto the early down work, but makes for a better scoop-and-sell.
Charles Johnson WR MIN
Johnson has been a darling of the metric community for some time now due to his combination of size (6'2" 217 lbs) and speed (4.38 40-yard dash), but he was unable to latch on in either Green Bay or Cleveland. Minnesota signed him from the Browns' practice squad in September and he's since risen up the depth chart after neither Cordarrelle Patterson, nor Jarius Wright were able to cement themselves opposite Greg Jennings. After a season-high 25 snaps in Week 11, where Johnson caught six of seven targets for 87 yards, he found himself in the starting lineup this past week and added three more catches for 52 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. With Carolina and the New York Jets on deck, Johnson should be picked up and treated as a risk / reward WR4.
Holdovers from last week's Forensics Report: Latavius Murray RB OAK
*All snap counts and targets in this article are courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com
