As is the case with any game, including fantasy football, it pays off to be one step ahead of your opponents. Using our Ultimate Strength of Schedule, which is position based and accounts for the strength of opponents, we have projected what players may become buys and sells during the 2014 season to help give you a leg up on your competition.
Projected Buys
Carolina Panthers Passing Offense
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Not only does Carolina have the second toughest SOS for quarterbacks from Week 1 through Week 9, Cam Newton is returning from ankle surgery and rookie Kelvin Benjamin faces a learning curve. It may take both players some time to find their footing.
- From Week 10 through Week 16, no team has an easier SOS for quarterbacks and the wide receiver SOS is the third friendliest. Expect both Newton and Benjamin to hit their groove and improved chemistry between the two can only be expected as well.
Dallas Cowboys Passing Offense
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It’s a tale of two seasons when viewing the SOS for the Cowboys passing game. Through the first seven weeks, no team has a more imposing schedule for quarterbacks, while only the Cleveland Browns have it tougher at wide receiver. They will face the top-three NFC West defenses, the menacing Houston pass rush, and an improved New York Giants defense. In essence, they get their toughest matchups out of the way early.
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At the slightest sign of struggle, the public will turn on Tony Romo. His age and back concerns will add fuel to the fire. If he struggles through the opening stretch, disregard those concerns and buy him with confidence.
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Dez Bryant transcends matchups and should not be discounted during drafts, but should still find fantasy points easier to come by in the second half. If you aren’t able to draft him, keep a close eye on him knowing that the second half should be more fruitful.
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The auxiliary receivers, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten, may find production a little tougher to come by early on and their lower draft day costs would further accentuate them as buys after Week 7.
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Opening up on the road versus Seattle and then with a home game against the New York Jets, rushing yards won’t be easy to come by for Lacy. Even the Week 3 matchup in Detroit against a Lions defense that allowed an NFL best 3.26 yards-per-carry at home in 2013 will prove difficult. No running back has a tougher three game SOS to begin the year and if you aren’t able to land Lacy in your drafts, there’s a strong chance you can trade for him at a better price after Week 3.
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The toughest SOS for quarterbacks through the season’s first two weeks belongs to Detroit. The New York Giants should be improved with the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a healthy Jason Pierre-Paul. Carolina gave up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2013 and although their secondary may take a step back, their pass rush will remain disruptive. No team has a more quarterback friendly SOS from Week 3 through Week 16.
- Denver opens up the season with two plus matchups, but then faces a grueling stretch of games from Week 3 through Week 8 that includes Seattle, the New York Jets and San Francisco. That gauntlet is enough for the toughest opening eight weeks for running back SOS in the NFL. It’s likely that Ball will finish the first half of the season on a low note, presenting a buy low opportunity before a second half that ranks among the friendliest top-third.
- Through the seasons first nine weeks, the Giants have a moderate schedule and it would make sense to hold off or simply monitor Jennings. Then, in Weeks 10 and 11, the team is tasked with playing Seattle and San Francisco back-to-back. After that two-game crucible, no team has a more friendly SOS for running backs from Week 12 through Week 16. Depending on your placement in the standings, you can use the two tough games as leverage to buy beforehand or hope to purchase at a lower cost afterwards.
PROJECTED SELLS
Arizona Cardinals Offense
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Being a member of the defense centric NFC West rivals and with the games versus the NFC East, the Cardinals offense becomes one of the biggest matchup plays of the year. With a favorable schedule for the season's first nine weeks, especially Week 5 through Week 9 (our SOS indicates only the New York Giants have easier passing matchups during those weeks), the offense makes for a recommended draft or early season buy.
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The sledding gets tougher beginning in Week 10 though. They’ll be tasked with facing Seattle and St. Louis two-times each between Week 10 and Week 16. This would make them a trading deadline sell for more consistent players, although there are a few favorable matchups mixed in if you would like to stick it out.
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Talent? Check. Opportunity? Check. Third friendliest SOS for running backs through the first eight weeks? Check. Tate should remind everyone why he was the handcuff to own three years running during the first half of the year. However, the injury concerns will always be looming and with the fourth toughest SOS for running backs from Week 9 through Week 16, he would be a recommended mid-season sell.
Mark Ingram
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No team has a more friendly SOS for running backs in Weeks 1 through 4. A large part of that are the matchups with Atlanta and Dallas - niether of those defenses will be much better this season. As the lead back for New Orleans, Ingram should come hot out of the gates, riding high after the Week 4 game versus Dallas. That would be the time to sell him with Tampa Bay on deck and a bye week to follow. The three-man backfield can also be expected to provide headaches throughout the season.
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The toughest SOS for running backs from Week 8 through Week 16 belongs to Seattle. Prior to that, the Seahawks will face the third most friendly schedule for running backs. Combine that difference in the SOS with the possibility of a playoff bound team keeping their star back fresh for a Super Bowl run and we have the makings of a sell high situation.
San Francisco 49ers Offense
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Only New Orleans has a friendlier SOS for quarterbacks and wide receivers through the season’s first eight weeks. It becomes an uphill battle after that however as no team has a tougher SOS for those positions from Week 9 through Week 16, which includes the two games versus Seattle in Weeks 13 and 15. The looming Aldon Smith suspension during the first half of the season would further separate the divide, placing more responsibility on the offense.
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Vernon Davis, although talented, is arguably the most overvalued player in fantasy due to the lack of opportunity for him. He should be avoided regardless. However, Colin Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree have a real opportunity to light up the league during the first half and boast numbers among the elite at their positions. Capitalize on their strong starts and look to offload (perhaps even for pieces of the Dallas or Carolina passing games mentioned above).
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Frank Gore has been pegged for a decline for several years now, but refuses to slow down. Even if his skills haven’t eroded, Carlos Hyde is expected to ease some of the burden. There should be more than enough to go around in Week 1 versus Dallas though and a top-five week is within reason. On deck would be Chicago, who it is well known were terrible versus the run last year. That run defense will be improved though. Use the perception of a poor Bears defense and the production versus Dallas to sell high after Week 1.
St. Louis Rams Offense
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With the most friendly passing schedule in Weeks 1 through 4, Shaun Hill is a streaming target for drafts. Matchups include Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Philadelphia. It’s all downhill from there with their divisional NFC West games leading the defensive charge. Look to sell Hill (if possible) ahead of the Week 5 game versus San Francisco.
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Zac Stacy was little more than a volume runner last year and the Rams kept him fed. He should open up the season with the lion’s share of touches once again and has two above average matchups, including the mouth-watering Week 3 game versus Dallas. It would be wise to rid yourself of Stacy before a bye and the toughest SOS for running backs through the season’s end. Not to mention, he could have company in the backfield at some point during the season as well.