With the eighth pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins selected Ryan Tannehill. The quarterback immediately stepped into the starting role and with two seasons now under his belt, he has played in all of the 32 possible games since his arrival. Entering his third season, and with a new offensive coordinator in Bill Lazor, Tannehill is expected to take another step forward and prove that he is the face of the franchise.
Tannehill's CAREER STATISTICS
YEAR | G | CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | FPR* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 16 | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 | 13 | 49 | 197 | 2 | 24 |
2013 | 16 | 355 | 588 | 3913 | 24 | 17 | 40 | 238 | 1 | 14 |
*FINAL POSITIONAL RANK; THE PLAYERS RANKING IN TOTAL FANTASY POINTS AT THEIR POSITION
Tannehill did not hit the ground running in his rookie year like a few other recent quarterbacks selected in the first round - namely Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III III. Instead, he averaged less than one passing touchdown per game en route to a final ranking of 24th in total fantasy points at the position. Additionally, only three quarterbacks with equal or more passing attempts had a lower yards-per-attempt than his 6.81: Brandon Weeden, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Sam Bradford. In regards to passer rating, Weeden was the sole starting quarterback to post a worse mark than Tannehill. He did rush for 197 yards, ranking 12th among quarterbacks, although his athleticism would leave us to expect more.
To quickly touch on his athleticism, prior to Tannehill’s redshirt freshman season at Texas A&M, he switched positions from quarterback to wide receiver and then went on to lead the team in both, receptions (55) and receiving yards (844), while setting the school records for freshman in the process. He remained at wide receiver until halfway through his junior season, all the while serving as the team’s backup quarterback, before taking over the starting quarterback job until his graduation.
Although Tannehill did not take full advantage of his rushing potential in year two of his NFL career either, he did set a career high in rushing yards with 238 yards on just 40 carries - that yardage total ranked 10th among quarterbacks. With a year’s worth of experience, the addition of Mike Wallace, and the emergence of Charles Clay, Tannehill did fare much better as a passer in 2013 though; attempting more passes (588) than all but six other quarterbacks, he set career highs across the board and found himself ranked 14th in total fantasy points for the position at season’s end.
Tannehill will be tasked with learning a new system for the 2014 season under Lazor, whose coaching history we looked into in our Coaching Carousel series. Many offensive players have already voiced their excitement about the new system, in which an increased tempo for the offense is expected for the Dolphins, who have ranked below the NFL average in total offensive plays in each of the past two seasons.
As the Eagles' quarterbacks coach last year, Lazor oversaw the historically productive and efficient season of Nick Foles. In no way are we projecting similar results from Tannehill, however the process, or the manner of usage for the two quarterbacks, will likely bear some resemblance.
N. Foles in Games Started (Including Playoffs)
SPAN | G | CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | FumL |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 11 | 207 | 320 | 2840 | 26 | 2 | 54 | 227 | 3 | 2 |
Per Game | 1 | 18.8 | 29.1 | 258.2 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 20.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Per 16 Games | 16 | 301 | 466 | 4131 | 37.8 | 2.9 | 79 | 330 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
*FINAL POSITIONAL RANK; THE PLAYERS RANKING IN TOTAL FANTASY POINTS AT THEIR POSITION
Firstly, the passing attempts of Foles were kept to a minimal amount as the offense maintained a high degree of emphasis on the running game. The ultra-efficient 8.88 yards-per-attempt and sparkling touchdown-to-interception ratio also did not often place the Eagles in a position where they needed a high volume of passes. All things considered, a sizable drop-off from Tannehill’s 588 pass attempts in 2013 can be expected, which would lower his ceiling.
With that being said, an increase in yards-per-attempt should also result. According to ProFootballFocus, 82 of the Eagles’ 508 pass attempts traveled more than 20 yards in the air - the highest percentage of any NFL team. 33 of those 77 attempts went to DeSean Jackson, who reeled them in at an incredible rate: 16 catches for 553 yards and eight touchdowns. Although Wallace’s luster may have faded, he remains a premier deep threat and should transition seamlessly into that role.
Perhaps the most promising sign for Tannehill is that Foles averaged nearly five rushes per game, which would project to roughly 80 rushes over a full, sixteen-game season. Of Foles’ 56 regular season rushes, 40 were on designed plays. Those 40 designed runs in just 11 games match Tannehill’s total rushes over all 16 games in 2013. Health permitting, it’s a safe bet to pencil Tannehill in for career highs as a runner.
Last season, Tannehill absorbed a league high, 59 sacks - Joe Flacco was a distant second with 48. That number should decrease as a direct result of less drop-backs, but a more effective running game should also slow down the opposing pass rush. To the Dolphins' credit, they did sign Brandon Albert to play left tackle and drafted offensive tackle, Ju'waun James, in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. Those additions should provide at least a subtle improvement, but the team also lost center, Mike Pouncey, to what has been described as a "significant" hip injury that was suffered during OTAs.
POSITIVES
- At 26 years of age, he’s entering his athletic prime with two years of NFL experience under his belt
- Offensive tempo should be higher than in first two seasons, resulting in more offensive plays
- Increase in volume of deep passing attempts should lead to more big plays and improved yards-per-attempt
- Lazor should make better use of Tannehill’s rushing potential
NEGATIVES
- Learning a new system under Lazor, who will be a first-time NFL playcaller
- Offense expected to return to a more balanced attack, limiting pass attempts
- Injury to Mike Pouncey adds more concerns for an already suspect offensive line
FINAL THOUGHTS
2014 PROJECTIONS
MY PROJECTIONS
G | CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | FumL | FPT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | 325 | 536 | 3747 | 23.2 | 15.0 | 59 | 282 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 299 |
DAVID DODDS' PROJECTIONS
G | CMP | ATT | YD | TD | INT | RSH | YD | TD | FumL | FPT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | 333 | 553 | 3694 | 22 | 16 | 45 | 178 | 1 | 4 | 273 |
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Rotoworld's Evan Silva sees some positives, but ultimately does not envision a breakout season...
A consistent if limited-upside fantasy passer as a sophomore, Tannehill doubled his TDs (24) while markedly improving his completion rate (60.4) and yardage (3,913). The best news for Miami is overmatched OC Mike Sherman is gone, and Tannehill won't drop back often enough to duplicate his NFL-high 58 sacks taken. The Fins will field a more balanced attack under OC Bill Lazor, who comes from run-heavy Philadelphia. The bad news is Tannehill's attempts will take a hit, and he'll be forced to learn a new offense. One reason for optimism is Lazor's work with Foles as the Eagles' 2013 quarterbacks coach. Tannehill is still a lower-end QB2.
Cory J. Bonini of KFFL forecasts that a QB1 season is ahead...
Tannehill is in an awesome situation to shine. He is barely being selected as a QB2 in many leagues, nevertheless I expect top-12 results. Despite being sacked a whopping 58 times in 2013, Tannehill improved his accuracy (60.4 percent), touchdowns per completion (14.79), and rating (81.7)... A new offensive coordinator -- Lazor -- comes from Philly with his high-flying vertical attack, which will benefit from an improved offensive line. This system suits RB L. Miller better, and wideout M. Wallace should feel right at home in a D. Jackson-like role. It may not always be pretty, but you can expect nearly 4,200 yards and at least 30 total touchdowns from Tannehill in Year 3.
Over at Dynasty Football Warehouse, Sal Conti is excited for Tannehill's rushing ability...
Tannehill might be the most under-appreciated quarterback in the NFL, by a long shot... I see Tannehill breaking out in a big way in 2014 on the ground thanks to Lazor’s Philadelphia background. In 2013 Eagles quarterbacks ran the ball 6 times per game, on average (Foles and Vick combined)... Only four quarterbacks (Newton, Pryor, Wilson, Kaepernick) reached 500-yards rushing last season, but with the change of scenery in Miami I wouldn’t be surprised if Tanny goes beyond that mark (I’m thinking 550-yards or so). He will be a legit threat to take off on any given play.