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It would not be a hyperbole to state that Calvin Johnson had the most impressive pre-draft measureables of all-time, which you can find in the table below. Even his wonderlic score was outstanding. His size and athleticism are more than worthy of the "Megatron" moniker that he is now synonymous with and that also alludes to him possesing inhuman ability. Now with seven NFL seasons under his belt, all of which were with the Detroit Lions, he is still just 28 years of age - the prime of his athletic career.
Ht | Wt | 40-Yard | Vert | Broad | Wonderlic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
6'5" | 239 lb | 4.35s | 42.5' | 11'7" | 41 |
*All measureables are NFL Combine, except for vertical and broad, which are from Georgia Tech pro day
As Stephen Hill has shown us recently and many others before him, measureables do not always equate to production. That has not been an issue for Johnson however, whose production has him well on the way to enshrinement in Canton, Ohio. His accomplishents so far include four Pro-Bowl appearences, four All-Pro designations, two seasons as the NFL receiving yards leader, and the NFL record for receiving yards in a single season.
Johnson's Career Statistics
Year | Team | G | REC | YD | YD/G | Y/R | 100+ | TD | RSH | YD | YD/G | Y/R | TD | ADP | FPR* |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2007 | DET | 15 | 48 | 756 | 50.4 | 15.8 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 3.5 | 13.0 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
2008 | DET | 16 | 78 | 1331 | 83.2 | 17.1 | 5 | 12 | 3 | -1 | -.1 | -.3 | 0 | 17 | 3 |
2009 | DET | 14 | 67 | 984 | 70.3 | 14.7 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 73 | 5.2 | 10.4 | 0 | 4 | 22 |
2010 | DET | 16 | 77 | 1120 | 70.0 | 14.5 | 4 | 12 | 4 | 32 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
2011 | DET | 16 | 96 | 1681 | 105.1 | 17.5 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 11 | .7 | 11.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
2012 | DET | 16 | 122 | 1964 | 122.8 | 16.1 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 0 | .0 | .0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
2013 | DET | 14 | 84 | 1492 | 106.6 | 17.8 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | .0 | .0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
*FINAL POSITIONAL RANK; THE PLAYERS RANKING IN TOTAL FANTASY POINTS AT THEIR POSITION
Johnson recently became the first player in NFL history to record 5,000+ receiving yards in a three-year period, amassing 5,137 receiving yards from 2011 through 2013. Over that time, he has also totaled 702.8 total standard fantasy points. Brandon Marshall's 4,030 receiving yards and 578.8 total standard fantasy points rank second during that span, a mere 1,107 yards and 124 fantasy points behind Johnson. In other words, Johnson has basically lapped the competition over the past three seasons.
Making his 2013 season more extraordinary are the injuries that Johnson managed to play through and still rank among the top-three at the position with only 14 games played. Earlier in the offseason, he offered some insight on those injuries:
"It bothered me enough to where I had to get [the right knee] drained every week. The finger, it was stuck at 90 degrees. It's good to have those things freed up right now."
ESPN reported promising news on Johnson's health in June, which indicated that he is fully recovered from both injuries:
"The All-Pro wide receiver looked like his normal self for the first time all spring. He caught essentially everything that was thrown to him throughout the day, ran crisp routes and crushed pretty much all of the Lions defensive backs when he was matched up with them. He was a big part of why the offense looked better than it has all spring."
Fantasy football is a game comprised of weekly head-to-head matchups where consistency is just as important as upside. Johnson possesses both of those qualities. In the 46 games that he has played over the past three years, he has recorded at least 75 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in all but 10 games. On top of that, he holds the NFL record for most career games with 200+ receiving yards and his career best total of 329 receiving yards in a single game is the second highest total of all-time.
While Scott Linehan, the Lions' offensive coordinator of the past five seasons, has departed for the Dallas Cowboys, major changes should not be expected. The new offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi, spent his last seven seasons with the New Orleans Saints, who led the NFL in each of the following categories over that time: passing attempts, passing completions, passing yardage and passing touchdowns. A pass-happy approach should continue with Matthew Stafford and Johnson leading the way.
There has been some worry that the depth of the Lions' receiving corps has improved to the point where Johnson may see a decrease in targets compared to recent years. The addition of Golden Tate and the selection of Eric Ebron are the most notable developments. However, rookie tight ends are notoriously known to struggle and Nate Burleson was able to average 4.5 receptions per game alongside Johnson over the past two seasons, which projects to 72 over a full, 16-game season - that type of involvement is just about what Tate can expect. It must also be noted that an improved supporting cast may help ease the coverage on Johnson, who will remain the focal point of the offense. Even so, his three-year averages of 101-1712-11 have plenty of cushion built in for a drop-off that may not even come.
POSITIVES
- Possesses size and natural ability that is unrivaled
- At 28 years of age, he is in the prime of his athletic career
- Fully recovered from the kneee and finger injuries suffered last season
- His recent production has been record-breaking
- The passing offense should continue to rank among the NFL's most prolific
NEGATIVES
- Injuries have become a recurrent theme, but he regularly plays through them
- A deeper receiving corps may lessen the volume that he has merited in the past
FINAL THOUGHTS
Johnson's track record of dominance at the position combined with that fact that he is still in the prime of his athletic career lock him in as fantasy football's top wide receiver. The consistency and upside that he offers make him among the most valuable fantasy commodities regardless of position. Research on the volatility of early round running backs and wide receivers has indicated that the idea of running backs carrying more risk than wide receivers is unfounded though. Therefore, with the running back position being more shallow than wide receiver, the elite running backs (Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, and Matt Forte) would get the nod over Johnson, who is then in consideration at fifth overall alongside Eddie Lacy and Jimmy Graham.
2014 PROJECTIONS
MY PROJECTIONS
G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
16 | 96 | 1,597 | 16.64 | 11.4 | 224.6 |
DAVID DODDS' PROJECTIONS
G | REC | YD | Y/R | TD | FPT |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 | 91 | 1,492 | 16.40 | 13.0 | 227.2 |
OTHER VIEWPOINTS
Evan Silva of Rotoworld ranks Johnson as the top receiver, but seventh overall...
Although we can't expect new OC Lombardi to mimic outgoing playcaller Linehan's pass-obsessed ways, Lombardi does hail from pass-heavy New Orleans, and isn't taking the air out of the ball. Look for Lombardi to continue to funnel offense through the league's top receiver, and increase Megatron's usage in the slot, creating matchup problems. Tate and Ebron's presences should help increase Calvin's efficiency, and Lombardi's quarterback coaching history should make Stafford better. I'm not shying from Megatron as the WR1.
Star of the "Transformers" films, Calvin Johnson, is again in a tier all to himself. At what point in Round 1 of 12-team PPR drafts should he fall off the board: TOP (1-5), MIDDLE (6-9), BOTTOM (10-12) or NEITHER?
Brandon Funston – TOP. I'd take Charles, McCoy and Forte ahead of him in a PPR draft. After that, I'd have a hard time passing up MegaTron.
Andy Behrens – TOP, no question. Calvin should not slip beyond the fifth pick in a PPR. He's averaged 11.3 targets per game over the past three seasons, the yardage totals are ridiculous, and he's a near-lock for double-digit TDs.
Scott Pianowski– TOP, though I wouldn't consider him until No. 4 overall. But Johnson is the rare combination of upside and floor, and still deserves the No. 1 spot at receiver.
Footballguys' own Mark Wimer argues for Johnson to be atop the overall rankings...
To me, the pick at 1.02 is clear - Johnson. In fact, he's #1 on my overall board and that is because he is among the handful of NFL players that plays hurt (as Matt Waldman pointed out), but he is ALSO a guy who is tough enough, explosive enough and talented enough to be extremely productive even when fighting through a nagging injury.
He's been the top fantasy wide receiver in two of the last three seasons, and finished third last year despite missing two games. The addition of Tate and Ebron during free agency and the draft (respectively) will give Stafford even more quality targets to throw at - teams can't simply double- and triple-cover Johnson this year assuming that Tate, Ebron, and the other surrounding talent in Detroit make it through preseason relatively healthy. Given what Johnson has done with an inordinate amount of defensive attention over the past three years, I think he's in for another MONSTER season this year.
Johnson is, in my mind, the most likely "elite" fantasy player to repeat an elite season.