Coaching Carousel: Norv Turner

Photo: USA Today Sports

Once upon a time, Norv Turner was a backup quarterback at the University of Oregon and he has become one of the more widely respected offensive minds in the NFL. He first broke through as an Offensive Coordinator in 1991 with the Dallas Cowboys and has been employed in the NFL every year since then as either an Offensive Coordinator or Head Coach. Turner's newest role as the Minnesota Vikings' Offensive Coordinator has been met with much excitement from the fantasy football community. In order to gauge his impact on the Vikings for 2014, let's first look at how his offenses have fared in the past:

Team Totals with Turner as HC or OC in Past Ten Seasons

* Head Coach

+ Offensive Coordinator

Across the board, the team totals for Turner's offenses over the past ten seasons are a display of mediocrity. The average total yards sits directly in the middle of the pack with an average ranking of 16.1 among NFL teams over those years, while the total plays per season ranks among the NFL's lowest third. The total points for his offenses do have a respectable average rank of 13.0, but a strong case can be made that all of his totals were inflated by the six seasons with the San Diego Chargers when Turner was blessed with Philip Rivers under center.

The 5423 total yards that his Cleveland Browns' offense posted in 2013 did settle right in line with his ten-year average, but that team also needed a ten-year high of 1078 plays, including and NFL leading 681 pass attempts. Considering Turner's history and the makeup of the Vikings roster, a high-octane offense should not be expected. With that being said, even though Turner's impact may not resemble that of Marc Trestman or Chip Kelly from last season, this doesn't mean there will not be any positive developments.

Team Passing with Norv Turner as Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator in Past 10 Seasons

* HEAD COACH

+ OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR

Right in line with the team totals under Turner, his passing offenses have also ranked in the middle of the pack. Surprisingly, the passing attempts of his offenses without Rivers exceeding the attempts with Rivers. The yardage and touchdown totals were substantionally higher with Rivers though, which is an indication of the quarterback's high-degree of efficiency.

With Matt Cassel primed to be the Vikings' starting quarterback in 2014, it would be quite an achievement for the passing offense to settle in near the league average. Nevertheless, while the passing offense may not be profilic, it is the distribution of those yards that may bode well for a few of the Vikings' playmakers.

Over the years, Turner has employed a downfield passing game that is heavily relient upon a #1 wide receiver and tight end. At 6'2" and 216 pounds with a 4.42 40-yard dash time and 37-inch vertical jump, Cordarelle Patterson's measureables stack up well when compared to Turner's past #1 wide receivers, Vincent Jackson (6'5", 241, 4.46, 39) and Josh Gordon (6'3", 225, 4.52, 36). The success of those two receivers has resulted in a lot of excitement building around Patterson's impending breakout season.

#1 Receivers under Norv Turner as HC or OC since 2008

*2010 was omitted due to a lengthy V. Jackson holdout and Turner was absent of a true #1 wide receiver in 2012

The averages over those seasons would have ranked among the top-twelve wide receivers in each of the past five years. Vikings' GM, Rick Spielman, fanned the Patterson hype flames earlier this offseason by exclaiming that the "first thing Norv Turner did was put in ten plays for Cordarelle Patterson." The early ADP data from MyFantasyLeague.com's best-ball leagues places Patterson as the sixteenth wide receiver off of the board with an overall ADP of 36.65. That data is strictly redraft focused, which indicates the price tag for Patterson will be set as if he has already broken out.

With a strong running game and another viable receiver on the roster in Greg Jennings, who is a much more refined as a pass-catcher and route runner, Patterson's reception totals should be capped closer to the 62.3 catches that Jackson averaged and not Gordon's total from last season. The plays that Turner implements are also more than likely quick passes and rushes to get the ball into Patterson's hands. Resulting, Patterson's yards-per-reception won't be nearing the 18.31 YPR that Jackson and Gordon maintained over the seasons outlined above.

The splits of Jennings and Patterson with Cassel at quarterback are also alarming. In the seven games that Cassel took the majority of snaps, Jennings posted a 41-491-4 line, which would project to 93.7-1122.3-9.14 over sixteen games. In comparison, Patterson posted a 19-231-3 line during that same set of games. While Turner may design plays for Patterson, there does seem to be a comfort level between the two veterans that should not be disregarded.

As mentioned earlier, the tight end position has also merited success under Turner. Minnesota's incumbent, Kyle Rudolph, will look to continue that success after what has been a disapointing start to his own career. Here is a recent look at how tight ends have fared under Turner:

Tight Ends under Norv Turner as HC or OC since 2008

Granted, Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron are high company to be placing Rudolph in. However, Rudolph has not yet played in an environment conducive to success. That will change for the upcoming season and Rudolph will be a strong bet to see his first top-twelve finish at the position. He can be expected to notch career highs in both receptions and yardage, with a high reliance in the red zone. That potential has not gone unnoticed though and the ADP data currently marks him as the tenth tight end being drafted.

For an indication of how the running game will be affected by Turner, let us first look at the team rushing totals under Turner:

Team Rushing with Turner as HC or OC in Past 10 Seasons

Once again, the overall totals are underwhelming for Turner. His teams have ranked in the bottom third for both carries and rushing yards over the past ten seasons. However, that should not dissuade any person from taking Adrian Peterson with a top selection. Turner's tenure in San Diego did begin with the last few breaths of LaDainian Tomlinson's elite seasons and Tomlinson remained the focal point until it became clear his skills were eroding:

LaDainian Tomlinson under Norv Turner

In Turner's first two seasons with Tomlinson, the back averaged 303.5 carries and 56.0 receptions, while en route to averages of 1742.5 total yards and 15.0 total touchdowns. Permitting Peterson remains healthy, he should have no troubles nearing 350 touches and with the departure of Toby Gerhart, Peterson should also see an increased usage in the passing game. Exceeding his career high of 43 receptions is well within reason, which will limit the dropoff in PPR value he has seen in years past.

All things considered, Turner's presence should be benificial for the Minnesota Vikings' offense from a fantasy football perspective. However, his effect on the offense has already been reflected, and perhaps overblown, in the ADPs of Patterson and Rudolph. While you may not be able to find value in those two players, the forgotten Jennings is a potential bargain in the late rounds and Peterson should be in consideration to be drafted as high as first overall.