Coaching Carousel: Scott Linehan

Photo: Matthew Emmons, USA Today Sports

Scott Linehan is a former starting college quarterback for the Idaho Vandals, who amassed more than 7,000 passing yards in his collegiate career before signing as an undrafted free agent with the Dallas Cowboys in 1987. He then suffered an unfortunate shoulder injury in the spring of '87 that ended his dream of playing in the NFL. That did not deter him from carving out a career in football though as he embarked on a coaching career soon after, beginning as as offensive coordinator at an Oregon high school.

After just two seasons coaching at the high school level, Linehan made the jump to a positions coach at his alma mater, Idaho. He stayed and developed in the college ranks for thirteen seasons before jumping at the opportunity to become the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator in 2002. He's now entering his thirteenth season as an NFL coach, which included a three-year stint as the Heach Coach of the St. Louis Rams, and most recently as the offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions for the past five seasons.

In a sense, Linehan's football career has now come full circle by sigining on with Dallas to become their passing game coordinator. Do not let the title fool you though as Jerry Jones has confirmed that Linehan will be in charge of the offense and not offensive coordinator Bill Callahan. Let's find out just what Linehan's presence may mean for the Cowboys' offensive playermakers.

TEAM TOTALS WITH Linehan AS HC OR OC IN PAST Eight SEASONS

Linehan's offenses have ranked in the top-ten in total plays in seven out of the last eight years and also among the top-six in total yards in each of the past three seasons. The least productive seasons for his offenses were from 2007 through 2009; a Marc Bulger in steep decline was his starting quarterback for the 2007 and 2008 seasons, while a washed-up Daunte Culpepper and rookie Matthew Stafford split the duties in 2009. With Tony Romo at Linehan's side, he won't need to worry about sub-par quarterback play and another top-ten season in total plays and yardage should be in order.

Over the past three years, the Dallas offense has averaged 1008 plays per season, which ranks among the bottom half of NFL teams. During that same span, Detroit averaged 1,107 plays. At the Cowboys' three-year average of plays per game, their offense would have needed roughly 1.5 more regular season games to reach the Lions' average number of plays. Essentially, that means the arrival of Linehan could result in an extra 1.5 games worth of fantasy points for Romo and his fellow skill players.

For a more specific gauge on how Linehan may impact on his new quarterback, look no further than Stafford's last three seasons, which also happen to be his only full seasons as a starter:

M. Stafford Past Three Seasons

T. Romo Past Three Seasons

*Fantasy Points **Final Positional Ranking in Total Fantasy Points

Perhaps the biggest discrepency between the two is the volume that Stafford was granted by Linehan. Stafford's average of 675 passing attempts per season are 100 more than Romo's average over that same span. Even at such a disadvantage, Romo managed to total the same number of touchdowns and matched Stafford with three consecutive top-twelve finishes at the position.

Outside of the volume, Romo has bettered Stafford in nearly all of the passing efficiency categories: completion percentage, yards-per-attempt, touchdown rate, and interception rate. While Romo may now be 34 years of age with an eventual decline being inevitable and Stafford does have room to improve, there should be no doubts that Romo remains the better passer of the two heading into 2014.

The arrival of Linehan combined with a seive-like defense and a division that looks to be shoot out friendly, leaves us with all the ingredients for a heavy passing volume and should allow Romo to cruise to another QB1 worthy season. Currently, his ADP places him as the 12th quarterback being drafted, which is fair and in line with the Footballguys' consensus. With a player of Romo's caliber being drafted that low, the opportunity cost of investing an earlier selection in standard, twelve-team leagues on a quarterback will be quite high once again, making Romo a fine target heading into your drafts.

Now that we've established the passing game should continue to flourish, let's examine how the passes may be distributed:

Average Passing Distribution under Linehan since 2010

*WR1, WR2, and WR3 were defined as the leading, second leading and thrid leading wide receivers in each season respectively. TE was defined as the leading tight end.

Granted, the WR1 averages above belong to Calvin Johnson, but Dez Bryant's talent level is not far off and neither is his production. Bryant has averaged 93 receptions, 1308 yards, and 12.5 touchdowns over the past two seasons - those numbers landing him among the top-six wide receivers in each year. Making Bryant's production more impressive is the fact that he remained predominantly an X receiver, while Johnson has had the benefit of more manufactured touches.

According to ProFootballFocus, only 6.6% of Bryant's routes run in the past two seasons from the slot. Johnson, on the other hand, has run 28% of his routes from the slot. Cowboys' beat reporter, Bryan Broaddus, has already indicated that Bryant is working at the Z position and slot this offseason. The added versatility leads us to believe a monster campaign lies ahead for Bryant and it would be no surprise to see him finish atop the wide receiver rankings at the season's end.

The WR2s have struggled to stay on the field, averaging 3.7 missed games per season, but their averages would project to 98 targets and 65 receptions over a full 16 game season. Terrance Williams, who will be the WR2 on the Cowboys, also averaged 16.72 yards-per-reception in last year, which would be a major improvement on the 11.13 YPR from the past WR2s. If Williams afforded the same opportunity as those receivers, there is a real opportunity for him to eclipse 1000 yards on the season and he can be viewed as an upside WR3.

Permitting that the top-two receivers stay healthy and with Bryant operating more from the slot, there is little fantasy relevance to be expected from the Cowboys WR3, who projects to be Cole Beasley.

Although the aging Jason Witten should still hold onto fantasy relevance, he's unlikely to return value on his ADP, which places him in the Sixth Round as the sixth tight end off of the board. He's now recorded less than 80 receptions in two of the past three seasons and posted his lowest yardage total since 2006 last season. That downward trend can be expected to continue, leaving little upside at his current price.

When speaking on the running game in a recent interview, Linehan stated, "That’s going to be our strength, being able to lean on that running game a little bit more than they have in the past." Here's a look at how the new play caller has leaned on his running game in the past:

Running Back Production Under Linehan Since 2006

Those sixteen-game averages of 271-1098-7.5 on the ground and 59-523-1.9 though the air would have ranked among the top-ten running backs in total fantasy points in each of the past five seasons. For comparison, Murray's sixteen-game averages are 252-1191-8.7 and 58-398-0.7, which falls within four total fantasy points of the RB1's sixteen-game average above. With Linehan entering the fold, Murray does look to see a small increase in carries per game while maintaining a similar usage in the passing game.

Murray's career 4.96 yards-per-carry also trumps the 4.05 YPC of Linehan's past RB1s, although it would be wise to expect a happy medium between those two marks for the 2014 season. With that being said, the expected decrease in rushing efficiency should be met with increased efficiency in the air; Murray, who has averaged 6.90 YPR in his career, should see that rise to a career high by virtue of design. All things considered, Murray is locked in as an RB1 and health permitting, he may very well find himself among the elite.

Health has been a question for Murray though, who has missed an average of 3.7 games per season, as has it also been for Linehan's past RB1s, who have missed a comparable 3.1 games per season. The missed games have attributed to a higher usage for the RB2s over that time, who have averaged 90 carries and 30 receptions per year. More recently, Linehan has found himself in favor of a two-back system, such as the Reggie Bush / Joique Bell combination, but Murray does have the makings of an every-down back and should be the workhorse. Lance Dunbar is fully expected to run away with the #2 role though and finds himself as one of the premier handcuffs to own in 2014.

Overall, the hire of Scott Linehan bodes well for the Dallas Cowboys' offense and can be viewed as a positive for each of their premier skill players: Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and DeMarco Murray. Their second tier of playmakers, Terrance Williams and Jason Witten, also maintain value as starters in standard leagues while Lance Dunbar serves as lottery ticket that should be drafted in all fantasy football leagues.

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