As is the case with a large contingent of offensive coordinators in the NFL, Hue Jackson was a former quarterback at the college level, albeit for the University of the Pacific which competes in what is now the FBS. Upon the end of his playing days, he immediately became a graduate assistant for the university and worked his way up through the college ranks, peaking as the offensive coordinator for USC from 1997 through 2000.
In 2001, Jackson departed for the NFL, where he has remained ever since. Beginning as a positions coach, he has also assumed the offensive coordinator role for three different franchises while even elevating to Head Coach of Oakland for the 2011 season. After Jay Gruden's departure from Cincinnati and with two seasons as a positions coach there, he now finds himself back as the primary playcaller after being promoted to offensive coordinator.
As the table below indicates, the team totals for Jackson's previous offenses were mediocre across the board with an average ranking between 16.3 and 18.3 in each category. However, Jackson has not been blessed with a roster near as talented as the current Bengals offense. His leading quarterbacks in the years listed were Patrick Ramsey, Joey Harrington, Jason Campbell, and Carson Palmer after a mid-season trade - to put it kindly, that group leaves a lot to be desired.
Team Totals with H. Jackson as HC or OC
Year | Team | Plays | Rank | Points | Rank | Yds | Rank | Yards/Play | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | Washington | 987 | 22 | 287 | 22 | 4,573 | 25 | 4.6 | 28 |
2007 | Atlanta | 987 | 22 | 259 | 29 | 4,813 | 23 | 4.9 | 21 |
2010 | Oakland | 1,039 | 10 | 410 | 6 | 5,674 | 10 | 5.5 | 12 |
2011 | Oakland | 1,015 | 16 | 359 | 16 | 6,072 | 9 | 6.0 | 9 |
Avg | --- | 1,007 | 17.5 | 329 | 18.3 | 5,283 | 16.8 | 5.2 | 17.5 |
As the years went on, his offensive tempo does seem to have kept up with the times though and he's remained near the league average in total plays. He even managed to post consecutive top-ten seasons in total yards while with the Raiders. Ultimately, the limited history combined with the poor level of playmakers at his disposal makes it tough to decipher much more meaning from the above numbers. However, listening to what Jackson has to say may prove useful. In the press conference announcing his promotion, he stated the following:
"We're not going to shy away from throwing the ball when we need to, but I think in order to win and be a very good offensive football team you have to be able to run the ball and that's going to be the starting point for us."
And soon after that, he went on to describe how he envisions the offensive tempo:
"I want it to be fast and furious... Football is played in a frenzy, a kind of controlled, smart frenzy... You play in tempo mode your quarterback and your unit can handle. We haven’t totally decided what our tempo mode is yet. I know what I want it to look like... and I think we’re working toward that goal."
Before moving on towards seeing how this mentality may affect the offense, let's take a look at how the Bengals performed in the past three seasons:
Team Totals of Bengals in Past 3 Seasons
Year | Team | Plays | Rank | Points | Rank | Yds | Rank | Yards/Play | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | Cincinnati | 1,015 | 18 | 344 | 18 | 5,118 | 20 | 5.0 | 24 |
2012 | Cincinnati | 1,016 | 16 | 391 | 12 | 5,323 | 23 | 5.2 | 21 |
2013 | Cincinnati | 1,097 | 6 | 430 | 6 | 5,891 | 10 | 5.4 | 11 |
Avg | --- | 1,043 | 13.3 | 388 | 12.0 | 5,444 | 17.7 | 5.2 | 18.7 |
There has been a steady improvement from the entire offense in each of the past three seasons and the organization has not only maintained the same young core, but built around it. What began as Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Jermaine Gresham in 2011, now includes Giovani Bernard, Marvin Jones, Tyler Eifert, and Jeremy Hill. That strong foundation should function well regardless of who the offensive coordinator is, but while the end result - moving the football and scoring points - may not be stunted, the way the offense goes about doing that can be expected to differ.
In addition to believing the running game is the foundation for success, Jackson has also expressed a desire to limit turnovers. Of the Bengals 30 turnovers last season, which ranked 25th among NFL teams, 20 of them came as interceptions. All things considered, the offense seems poised to run the ball more and a dip in total plays from the 2013 mark closer to the three-year average can be expected as a side result.
Last season, Dalton posted career highs in completions (363), attempts (586), passing yards (4296), and passing touchdowns (33) while en route to finishing third among quarterbacks in total fantasy points. Those profilific numbers also did come with the aforementioned 20 interceptions though, which were the fifth most among quarterbacks.
Team Passing with H. Jackson as HC or OC
Year | Team | Comp | Rank | Att | Rank | Yds | Rank | TDs | Rank | Int | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2003 | Washington | 283 | 23 | 527 | 11 | 3006 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
2007 | Atlanta | 336 | 13 | 555 | 14 | 3293 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 11 |
2010 | Oakland | 279 | 28 | 491 | 24 | 3180 | 23 | 18 | 25 | 16 | 16 |
2011 | Oakland | 315 | 16 | 524 | 22 | 3962 | 11 | 20 | 18 | 23 | 27 |
Avg | --- | 303 | 20.0 | 524 | 17.8 | 3360 | 18.3 | 19.3 | 19.0 | 17.5 | 16.5 |
Jackson will almost assuredly tug back on Dalton's reins at least a little, dropping him closer to the average of 524 passing attempts from the above table. At just a two-and-a-half percent dropoff in volume from Dalton's two-year averages, he would post 544 passing attempts and 319 fantasy points, which would have ranked 10th and 12th in the pass two seasons among passers.
With the position expected to take another step forward, that two-and-a-half percent dropoff would project him as a high-end QB2 for 2014. Currently, Dalton's ADP in standard, 12-team leagues marks him as the 16th quarterback off of the board. At that price, Dalton is a fair value and a worthwhile target for streamers of the position and those in two-quarterback leagues. He currently ranks as the 16th quarterback in the Footballguys' consensus.
Now that an expectation of passing volume has been established, let's look into how that may be distributed:
Average Passing Distribution under H. Jackson as HC or OC
Depth* | Span | GP | Rec | Yards | YPR | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WR1 | Avg Season | 15.3 | 68 | 998 | 14.78 | 4.5 |
Per 16 Games | 16.0 | 71 | 1047 | 14.78 | 4.7 | |
WR2 | Avg Season | 14.8 | 43 | 529 | 12.37 | 3.8 |
Per 16 Games | 16.0 | 46 | 574 | 13.42 | 4.1 | |
WR3 | Avg Season | 15.0 | 28 | 385 | 13.73 | 2.8 |
Per 16 Games | 16.0 | 30 | 410 | 14.65 | 2.9 | |
TE1 | Avg Season | 13.8 | 35 | 397 | 11.41 | 3.3 |
Per 16 Games | 16.0 | 40 | 461 | 13.28 | 3.8 | |
TE2 | Avg Season | 11.3 | 11 | 82 | 7.83 | 0.0 |
Per 16 Games | 16.0 | 15 | 117 | 11.14 | 0.0 |
*WR1, WR2, and WR3 were defined as the leading, second leading and third leading wide receivers in each season respectively. TE1 and TE2 were defined as the leading and second leading tight end in each season respectively.
For context, the WR1s in those seasons were Laveranues Coles, Roddy White, Louis Murphy, and Darrius Heyward-Bey. When removing the latter two from the equation, those 16-game averages rise to a more respectable line of 83-1,203-6. Considering those totals as a market share of receptions and remaining consistent with Dalton's two-and-a-half percent drop-off numbers for a completion total, that would translate to 90-1311-6.5.
The Bengals' WR1, Green, has averaged 98-1388-11 over the past two seasons and remains one of the elite talents at the position. He should once again finish among the top-six and is a safe WR1, but it would be wise to expect at least a slight dip in his usage, which limits his ceiling compared to some of the other elite WR1s.
Using the same market share logic, the WR2s would project to 50-626-4.4. Last season, Jones positioned himself into that role and finished with a similar 51 receptions, while reaching 712 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. He is more explosive than the past WR2s (Rod Gardner, Michael Jenkins, Heyward-Bey, and Denarius Moore) and matching his 2014 yardage total is feasible, but the touchdown rate is unsustainable and regression is expected in that category. It's tough to view Jones as anything more than a WR4 in fantasy and the outlook of the Bengals WR3, Mohamed Sanu, looks even bleaker.
The team's top-two tight ends, Gresham and Eifert, both sat out OTAs with injuries and they may also find themselves sitting on the waiver wire in your fantasy football leagues. While both of them may have the talent to become TE1s, this environment may not be fertile enough for one of them to grown into a top-twelve tight end, let alone with the two of them sapping into each other's value.
Jackson has used multiple backs during his time as a Head Coach and offensive coordinator, although that may not have been by choice. As noted below, his lead backs have averaged more than four missed games per season, thanks in part to Darren McFadden. Irregardless, the Bengals are set up to run a two-back system in 2014 and Jackson's past may help provide a glimpse into their use.
Running Back Production with H. Jackson as HC or OC
Span | Depth | G | GS | Carries | Yards | YPC | TDs | Rec. | Yards | YPR | TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Avg | RB1 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 176 | 773 | 4.38 | 4.0 | 28 | 243 | 8.58 | 1.3 |
RB2 | 14.0 | 3.5 | 96 | 448 | 4.65 | 3.3 | 23 | 237 | 10.42 | 0.5 | |
Per Gm | RB1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 | 66 | 4.38 | 0.34 | 2.4 | 21 | 8.58 | 0.11 |
RB2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 32 | 4.65 | 0.23 | 1.6 | 17 | 10.42 | 0.04 | |
x 16 | RB1 | 16.0 | 15.3 | 240 | 1052 | 4.38 | 5.4 | 38 | 330 | 8.58 | 1.7 |
RB2 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 110 | 512 | 4.65 | 3.7 | 26 | 271 | 10.42 | 0.6 |
Bernard burst onto the fantasy football scene last year, finishing 16th among running backs in standard scoring and 13th in PPR leagues. He has been taking first team snaps at running back and there are even plans for him to see more time as a slot receiver. Nearing the 16-game average of 278 touches for Jackson's past RB1s is a real possibility for Bernard in 2014, albeit with 50-60 of those touches coming in the form of receptions. He only needed 226 touches last season to accomplish hit feats and the extra usage places him right on the RB1 border in standard and PPR leagues.
The Bengals invested a second round pick on Hill and wasted no time incorpating him into the offense as he began OTAs as the RB2. As the starting running back in 2014, BenJarvus Green-Ellis totaled 220 carries, 756 rushing yards, and seven rushing touchdowns. With Bernard taking over as the lead back, Hill would be relegated to early down and goal-line work as a change-of-pace player. That role may be more fruitful than it sounds however, with Hill having the potential for 160+ carries and 6+ touchdowns. In fantasy drafts, he should be selected in the RB4 range as a handcuff option with the ability to fill-in as a spot starter.
As mentioned earlier, the Cincinnati Bengals' offense should have no troubles moving the football and scoring points under their new offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson. However, how they go about completing those tasks does seem like it will be affected; the passing game can be expected to be governed, limiting the upside of Dalton and his receivers, while the running game is poised to flourish with Bernard leading the way and Hill in tow.