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Greg Roman's experience as an offensive coordinator at the NFL level is limited to just the past four seasons, all of which were spent with the San Francisco 49ers under Jim Harbaugh. His only previous experience as an offensive coordinator was at Holy Spirit High School in 2008. He spent just one year coaching in high school before joining Harbaugh's staff at Stanford as a positions coach, which bridged the gap to his current NFL tenure. With Harbaugh having now bolted for the University of Michigan and Roman handed the keys to the Buffalo Bills' offense under defensive-minded Rex Ryan, it is now Roman's time to put his stamp on an NFL offense.
Team Offense with Roman as OC
Year | Team | Points | Rank | Yds | Rank | Plays | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | SF | 380 | 11 | 4,974 | 26 | 993 | 24 |
2012 | SF | 397 | 11 | 5,789 | 11 | 969 | 30 |
2013 | SF | 406 | 11 | 5,180 | 24 | 961 | 31 |
2014 | SF | 306 | 25 | 5,239 | 20 | 1,009 | 20 |
Avg | --- | 372 | 14.5 | 5,296 | 20.3 | 983 | 26.3 |
During Roman's years in San Francisco, the team was buyoed by a top ranked defense – and that should not change much in Buffalo. Despite consistently ranking among the bottom-half of NFL teams in offensive yards and plays run, the 49ers finished 11th among NFL teams in total points for three consecutive years – this was surely aided by their average starting field position, which ranked either first or second best in each of those three years, and a low turnover percentage, which placed them among the top-five in each of those same years.
The Bills ranked 5th last season in average starting field position and another strong finish should be expected, continuing to ease the job of Roman. The Bills' turnover percentage was only middle-of-the-road however, although perhaps Roman is able to improve the offense in this area. Much like the 49ers' offenses, the Bills are expected to be methodical and a bottom-third finish in total offensive plays is likely. Perhaps all of those similarities and an overarching goal to build a team similar to the 49ers are why Ryan chose to bring Roman to Buffalo.
Team Passing with Roman as OC
Year | Team | Comp | Rank | Att | Rank | Yds | Rank | TDs | Rank | Int | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | SF | 277 | 29 | 451 | 31 | 2930 | 29 | 18 | 24 | 5 | 1 |
2012 | SF | 289 | 27 | 436 | 31 | 3298 | 23 | 23 | 16 | 8 | 1 |
2013 | SF | 244 | 32 | 417 | 32 | 2979 | 30 | 21 | 23 | 8 | 1 |
2014 | SF | 292 | 29 | 487 | 29 | 3063 | 30 | 20 | 22 | 10 | 5 |
Avg | --- | 276 | 29.3 | 448 | 30.8 | 3,068 | 28.0 | 20.5 | 21.3 | 8 | 2.0 |
Two things are for certain regarding team passing under Roman. First, his offenses exhibit extremely low volume. Second, they have displayed a high-level of efficiency. Not once in those four seasons did the 49ers rank higher than 29th in pass attempts and only once did the offense rank higher than 29th in passing yards. Despite that lack of volume, the offenses did consistently finish middle-third in passing touchdowns – perhaps another by-product of the average starting field position – and they also never totaled more than 10 interceptions in any of those years – the best mark in the NFL.
The two leading candidates for the Bills starting quarterback position are a veteran, Matt Cassel, and an unknown commodity, Tyrod Taylor. Cassel is a one-time Pro-Bowl quarterback, currently in a low-point of his career. He does possess above average athleticism though and may grow to resemble Alex Smith awfully closely with the reins held tightly by Roman. Taylor is more of a natural dual-threat quarterback, yet to be given a starting opportunity. One cannot help but to draw a comparison to Colin Kaepernick, if only for the reason that both are athletic and will be playing under Roman. Kaepernick's failure to develop under Roman does not offer much optimism for Taylor though.
Regardless of who wins the starting job, the passing attack can be expected to be closely governed. Only in games where the Bills are expected to be out-matched and play from behind should either of the quarterbacks be considered in standard leagues. With that being said, Taylor's potential to average 50 rushing yards per game gives him a clear advantage over Cassel in terms of scoring fantasy football points.
Passing Distribution with Roman as OC
Depth* | Span | GP | Rec | Yards | YPR | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WR1 | Avg Season | 15.8 | 81 | 1,055 | 12.98 | 6.3 |
Per 16 Games | 16 | 83 | 1,072 | 12.98 | 6.3 | |
WR2 | Avg Season | 9.5 | 36 | 413 | 11.47 | 1.8 |
Per 16 Games | 16 | 61 | 695 | 11.47 | 2.9 | |
WR3 | Avg Season | 12.8 | 24 | 306 | 12.87 | 2.3 |
Per 16 Games | 16 | 30 | 384 | 12.87 | 2.8 | |
TE | Avg Season | 15.3 | 47 | 609 | 13.09 | 6.5 |
Per 16 Games | 16 | 49 | 639 | 13.09 | 6.8 |
Perhaps as much to do with Kaepernick as it does Roman, No. 1 receivers have fared very well during the past four years in San Francsico. Michael Crabtree was even nearing elite WR1 production for a time, but then suffered a terrible Achilles injury that gave way to Anquan Boldin. Since then, Boldin has been reaping the benefits of being the No. 1 receiver.
The Bills bring in Percy Harvin and Charles Clay during the offseason, adding to a corps that already included Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. However, the honor of No 1. receiver will undoubtedly go to sophomore, Sammy Watkins. The ceiling for Watkins is likely around the 16-game average on the above table of 83 receptions, which with his playmaking ability would likely go further than the 12.98 yards-per-reception that was exhibited. We are inclined to project a more balance in the passing distribution though and for Watkins to fall short of that range, but still improve upon the 65 receptions he recorded as a rookie. Ultimately, this forecasts Watkins as a high-end WR3 in both, STD and PPR formats.
As for Harvin, the Jets began to open up his route tree, indicated by his 12.07 yards-per-reception with the team, compared to his 6.05 yards-per-reception in Seattle. They also incorporated him more as a running back. Still, he caught only 51 receptions in 13 games and experienced a career-low usage rate, excluding the 2013 season, when he played just one game. No longer the top-receiving option, like he was with the Minnesota Vikings, he cannot be counted on week-to-week in fantasy football. The 16-game rate of 61 receptions displayed above is about all we can expect from the mercurial receiver. Despite this, an additional 30-40 touches that he'll merit as a running back is enough to boost him into back-end WR3 territory, although he is best suited as a WR4.
Woods built upon his rookie total of 40 receptions and reached 65 receptions in 2014. With Harvin's arrival though, he is safely no more than the third wide receiver and is likely behind Clay in the overall hierarchy as well. It would not be surprising to see career lows across the board in 2015 and Woods can be disregarded in redraft leagues. Despite world class speed, Marquise Goodwin is also nothing more than a situational deep threat to be avoided in fantasy football.
As for Clay, he received quite a large sum of money in the offseason, enough to make him the NFL's fourth highest-paid tight end. Unfortunately, he left what is shaping up to be a high-octane offense in Miami for the doldrums of Buffalo. The nature of San Francisco's offense prevented Vernon Davis, a player with Hall of Fame caliber talent, from coming anywhere close to reaching his potential. In fact, Davis' only two seasons above 900 receiving yards were the two seasons prior to Roman's arrival – his average receiving yards fell by nearly 300 yards under Roman. We have trouble projecting Clay to surpass Davis' production, limiting him to a high-end TE2 worthy of only streaming.
Team Rushing with Roman as OC
Year | Team | Carries | Rank | Yds | Rank | YPC | Rank | TDs | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | SF | 498 | 3 | 2044 | 8 | 4.10 | 19 | 14 | 12 |
2012 | SF | 492 | 7 | 2491 | 4 | 5.06 | 3 | 17 | 6 |
2013 | SF | 505 | 3 | 2201 | 3 | 4.36 | 11 | 18 | 4 |
2014 | SF | 470 | 9 | 2176 | 4 | 4.63 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
Avg | --- | 491 | 5.5 | 2,228 | 4.8 | 4.54 | 9.3 | 15 | 10.8 |
Much more optimism can be gained from the team rushing under Roman. His offenses, led by Frank Gore, averaged 491 carries per season. Those numbers were certainly inflated some by Kaepernick, but now with a head coach known for his "ground and pound" philosophy, similar numbers can be expected in Buffalo. Rushing yardage followed suit with the total carries, averaging a top-five ranking over the four seasons, while the rushing touchdowns lagged slightly behind, but still ranked among the top-half of NFL teams on average.
Rushing Distribution with Roman as OC
Year | Depth | G | GS | Carries | Yards | YPC | TDs | Rec. | Yards | YPR | TDs |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Avg | RB1 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 268 | 1,165 | 4.35 | 7.3 | 18 | 150 | 8.33 | 0,5 |
RB2 | 14.3 | 0.3 | 86.3 | 384 | 4.45 | 2.8 | 10 | 84 | 8.62 | 0.0 | |
Per Gm | RB1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 16.7 | 72.8 | 4.35 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 9.4 | 8.33 | 0.0 |
RB2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 26.9 | 4.45 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 5.9 | 8.62 | 0.0 | |
x16 Gm | RB1 | 16.0 | 14.3 | 268 | 1,165 | 4.35 | 7.3 | 18 | 150 | 8.33 | 0.5 |
RB2 | 16.0 | 3.2 | 97 | 431 | 4.45 | 3.1 | 11 | 94 | 8.62 | 0.0 |
During each of Roman's four seasons, Gore played in all 16 games, starting 63 of a possible 64 games. Some of the credit for Gore's health may be attributed to Roman's care – despite not missing much action, Gore was limited to a modest 268 carries per season. And in seven seasons prior to Roman, Gore played in 16 games just once. While LeSean McCoy has proven to be durable enough for a heavy workload, Roman's intuition may desire scaling back his touches. There may be some push-pull for this as murmurs from the Bills camp have already called for McCoy to lead the NFL in carries.
A major detractor to running back's fantasy football value under Roman has been their involvement in the passing game. In Gore's first five years as a starting running back, he averaged 51 receptions per season. In the four years under Roman, his receptions dropped to just 18 per season. We saw a similar drop-off recently from McCoy, who averaged more than 54 receptions during his first five seasons, before only notching 28 receptions last season. Roman's history, combined with the presence of Fred Jackson, will make it tough for McCoy to reverse the downward trend of his usage as a receiver.
Despite playing behind a worse offensive line in a much tougher division and limited involvement as a receiver, volume should ultimately allow McCoy to remain an RB1 in all formats, albeit on the lower-end of that RB1 scale than we have been accustomed to. As for Jackson, his standalone value as a Flex play is fleeting – the Bills intend to cut his usage in half, making him only a handcuff heading in to 2015.