After presenting True Fantasy Points (TFP) for all four fantasy skill positions last week, and without much in the way of potential changes one week later, I figured I'd use this week's article to give you some insight into the "true" rate stats that underlie TFP. It's one thing to know that so-and-so WR has scored 30 points more than he should have this season; it's another to see exactly where those 30 points-worth of overachievement have come in terms of receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Granted, I've included these more-granular stats in my write-ups of specific players, but it seems like it would be helpful if readers were privy to them on a larger scale. So as we approach the holiday season, what follows is an early gift from me to you.
Here's all the information you need to know to read the tables:
- "YPA +/-" is a QB's current Yards per Attempt minus his True YPA.
- "TD% +/-" is a QB's/RB's current Touchdown Rate minus his True TD%.
- "INT% +/-" is a QB's current Interception Rate minus his True INT%.
- "YPC +/-" is a RB's current Yards per Carry minus his True YPC.
- "RPRR +/-" is a RB's/WR's/TE's current Receptions per Routes Run minus his True RPRR.
- "YPRR +/-" is a RB's/WR's/TE's current Yards per Routes Run minus his True YPRR.
- "TDPRR +/-" is a RB's/WR's/TE's current Touchdowns per Routes Run minus his True TDPRR.
- All +/- values in the "2014 Only" section apply regression to the mean (RTM) based only on the player's stats in 2014.
- All +/- values in the "Career w/ Tm" section apply RTM based on the player's career stats with their current team.
- For the convenience of easily locating a specific player, I've sorted all tables in alphabetical order.
So, as an example, Tom Brady's YPA +/- of -0.14 in the "2014 Only" section of the QB table means his current 7.14 YPA is 0.14 YPA below his 7.28 True YPA based only on 2014. Meanwhile, in the "Career w/ Tm" section, his current YPA is 0.30 below his 7.44 True YPA since he's been in New England. Both of these stats tell us that Brady's slightly underperforming his "true" yardage-producing ability and figures to throw for a higher YPA going forward.
quarterbacks
Below, you'll find +/- stats for Footballguys' Top 24 QBs Forward, with values predicting better performance going forward highlighted in green, and values predicting worse performance highlighted in yellow:
| Name | Tm | 2014 Only | Career w/ Tm | ||||
| YPA +/- | TD% +/- | INT% +/- | YPA +/- | TD% +/- | INT% +/- | ||
| Tom Brady | NE | -0.14 | 0.96% | -0.99% | -0.3 | 1.07% | -1.13% |
| Drew Brees | NO | 0.05 | -0.38% | 0.48% | -0.23 | -0.7% | 0.18% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | MIN | -0.46 | -3.18% | 0.41% | -0.39 | -2.64% | 0.07% |
| Derek Carr | OAK | -0.94 | -1.09% | 0.49% | -0.78 | -0.79% | 0.2% |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | -0.12 | 0.12% | 0.8% | -0.02 | 0.41% | -0.02% |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | -0.11 | -0.34% | 0.17% | 0.14 | 0.53% | -0.2% |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 0.67 | -3.6% | -0.58% | 0.62 | -3.16% | -0.81% |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 0.04 | -0.64% | -0.3% | -0.19 | -0.43% | -0.44% |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 0.23 | 0.96% | 0.17% | 0.57 | 1.6% | -0.06% |
| Eli Manning | NYG | -0.27 | 0% | -0.18% | -0.17 | 0.55% | -1.19% |
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 0.45 | 2.19% | -0.08% | 0.17 | 1.48% | -0.08% |
| Cam Newton | CAR | -0.17 | -1.5% | 0.53% | -0.4 | -1.04% | 0.11% |
| Kyle Orton | BUF | -0.04 | -0.01% | -0.44% | -0.21 | 0% | -0.76% |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 0.35 | 1.18% | 0.55% | 0.13 | 1.32% | 0.19% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 0.76 | 2.95% | -0.85% | 0.53 | 2.72% | -0.84% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 0.33 | 0.54% | -0.62% | 0.19 | 0.84% | -1.22% |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 0.57 | 1.11% | 0.13% | 0.49 | 1.16% | -0.35% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 0.07 | -0.41% | 0.25% | 0.29 | -0.02% | -0.01% |
| Mark Sanchez | PHI | 1.44 | 1.4% | 1.27% | 1.3 | 1.48% | 0.83% |
| Alex Smith | KC | -0.31 | -0.74% | -0.54% | -0.06 | -0.49% | -0.62% |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | -0.03 | -1.11% | 0.23% | 0.22 | -0.63% | -0.32% |
| Drew Stanton | ARI | -0.64 | -1.91% | -1.97% | -0.71 | -1.76% | -2.32% |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | -0.45 | -0.46% | 0.1% | -0.26 | 0.33% | -0.31% |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | -0.17 | -0.85% | -0.13% | -0.52 | -1.2% | -0.35% |
sell-high candidate #1: aaron rodgers
Rodgers is in his seventh season as the Packers' starter, all in the same offensive scheme, so let's focus on his "Career w/ Tm" stats. In 3,482 previous attempts in Green Bay, Rodgers produced an 8.24 YPA, which translates to a True YPA of 8.16. Thus far this season, he's at 8.69. Even more outlying is his current 9.03 TD%, which dwarfs his 6.66 True TD% for 2014 only and his 6.31 True TD% since 2008. Rodgers' fantasy strength of schedule is no more difficult from here out than it has been to this point, but something's got to give.
sell-high candidate #2: mark sanchez
The fact that I just associated the words "sell-high" with the words "Mark Sanchez" is making me question the meaning of life and my place in the universe. Is Sanchez a better fantasy QB in the Eagles offense than he was in the Jets offense? It's likely. Will he be able to sustain a 9.05 YPA, which is even better than Rodgers', and a 6.78 TD%? It's incredibly unlikely. Given the league averages of 7.39 YPA and 5.30 TD%, RTM suggests Sanchez's True YPA is 7.61 and his True TD% is 5.38%.
running backs
Here's the table with +/- stats for Footballguys' Top 48 RBs Forward with respect to either Standard FBG scoring or PPR scoring (Top 8 underachievers are highlighted in green, while Top 8 overachievers are highlighted in yellow):
| Name | Tm | 2014 Only | Career w/ Tm | ||||||||
| YPC +/- | TD% +/- | RPRR +/- | YPRR +/- | TDPRR +/- | YPC +/- | TD% +/- | RPRR +/- | YPRR +/- | TDPRR +/- | ||
| C.J. Anderson | DEN | 1.49 | -2.9% | 2.27% | 1.06 | 1.64% | 1.29 | -2.84% | 3.11% | 1.11 | 1.77% |
| Matt Asiata | MIN | -0.89 | 3.65% | 0.33% | 0.12 | 0.08% | -1.07 | 3.5% | 0.55% | 0.21 | 0.21% |
| Montee Ball | DEN | -1.07 | -1.12% | -3.87% | -0.49 | -0.62% | -1.28 | -1.15% | -4.57% | -0.49 | -0.45% |
| Joique Bell | DET | -0.87 | -0.22% | -2.82% | -0.16 | -0.59% | -1.05 | -0.45% | -6.61% | -0.52 | -0.33% |
| Le'Veon Bell | PIT | 0.36 | -1.94% | 0.84% | 0.11 | 0% | 0.27 | -2.08% | 2.48% | 0.19 | 0.21% |
| Giovani Bernard | CIN | -0.13 | 1.33% | 0.19% | 0 | -0.6% | -0.29 | 1.42% | -0.91% | -0.14 | -0.59% |
| Alfred Blue | HOU | -0.76 | -2.75% | -2.7% | -0.13 | 1.39% | -0.95 | -2.72% | -2.69% | -0.13 | 1.52% |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | IND | 0.81 | -0.56% | 2.3% | 0.29 | 2.58% | 0.62 | -0.62% | 2.1% | 0.31 | 2.72% |
| Bryce Brown | BUF | -0.65 | -2.97% | 9.79% | 1.5 | -0.66% | -0.85 | -2.94% | 9.8% | 1.5 | -0.53% |
| Jamaal Charles | KC | 0.56 | 1.99% | -1.84% | -0.35 | 0.51% | -0.01 | 2.33% | -3.09% | -0.54 | 0.43% |
| Andre Ellington | ARI | -0.68 | -0.99% | 1.38% | 0.23 | 0.3% | -0.93 | -0.94% | 1.41% | 0.17 | 0.44% |
| Justin Forsett | BAL | 1.12 | 0.6% | -0.11% | -0.19 | -0.57% | 0.93 | 0.64% | -0.1% | -0.18 | -0.46% |
| Matt Forte | CHI | -0.03 | -0.81% | 2.17% | 0.27 | 0.32% | -0.17 | -0.41% | 3.9% | 0.34 | 0.45% |
| Arian Foster | HOU | 0.81 | 1.06% | -0.5% | 0 | 0.93% | 0.63 | 0.67% | -0.47% | -0.06 | 1.11% |
| Devonta Freeman | ATL | -0.12 | -2.91% | 16% | 1.14 | 1.05% | -0.32 | -2.87% | 16% | 1.15 | 1.18% |
| Frank Gore | SF | -0.25 | -1.32% | -6.56% | -0.5 | 0.13% | -0.43 | -1.34% | -8.2% | -0.49 | 0.31% |
| Jonas Gray | NE | -0.13 | -2.9% | -14.89% | -1.28 | -0.67% | -0.33 | -2.86% | -14.88% | -1.28 | -0.54% |
| Roy Helu | WAS | 0.88 | 0% | 1.29% | 0.59 | -0.6% | 0.7 | 0.08% | 3.26% | 0.88 | -0.37% |
| Jeremy Hill | CIN | 0.45 | 2.46% | 0.06% | 0.19 | -0.62% | 0.26 | 2.49% | 0.07% | 0.19 | -0.5% |
| Ronnie Hillman | DEN | -0.07 | 0.23% | -0.26% | -0.19 | 0.1% | -0.23 | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.17 | 0.28% |
| Mark Ingram | NO | 0.54 | 1.86% | -0.94% | -0.35 | -0.63% | 0.4 | 1.97% | 0.75% | -0.17 | -0.43% |
| Chris Ivory | NYJ | 0.21 | 0.87% | -3.01% | -0.28 | -0.61% | 0 | 1.17% | -0.64% | -0.11 | -0.47% |
| Fred Jackson | BUF | 0.01 | -1.23% | 3.82% | 0.38 | -0.03% | -0.21 | -0.93% | 5.72% | 0.43 | 0.16% |
| Steven Jackson | ATL | -0.37 | 0.49% | -0.29% | -0.3 | -0.63% | -0.49 | 0.39% | -1.57% | -0.25 | -0.52% |
| Rashad Jennings | NYG | 0.12 | -0.74% | -0.02% | 0.21 | -0.64% | -0.07 | -0.7% | -0.02% | 0.21 | -0.51% |
| Eddie Lacy | GB | -0.2 | 0.28% | -0.8% | 0.23 | -0.06% | -0.35 | 0.09% | -0.39% | 0.36 | 0.15% |
| Marshawn Lynch | SEA | 0.26 | 2.32% | -1.44% | 0.05 | 0.91% | 0.1 | 2.17% | -0.47% | 0.24 | 1.11% |
| Tre Mason | STL | 0.06 | -1.32% | -0.24% | -0.42 | -0.65% | -0.13 | -1.29% | -0.23% | -0.42 | -0.52% |
| Ryan Mathews | SD | -1.12 | 1.27% | 11.42% | 1.86 | -0.67% | -1.32 | 1.68% | 7.55% | 1.69 | -0.4% |
| LeSean McCoy | PHI | -0.48 | -1.49% | -2.63% | -0.54 | -0.56% | -0.8 | -1.91% | -4.79% | -0.73 | -0.51% |
| Darren McFadden | OAK | -0.65 | -0.98% | 2.12% | -0.05 | -0.6% | -0.78 | -0.81% | 1.66% | -0.27 | -0.5% |
| Jerick McKinnon | MIN | 0.7 | -2.67% | 0.35% | -0.33 | -0.61% | 0.51 | -2.64% | 0.36% | -0.33 | -0.49% |
| Lamar Miller | MIA | 0.55 | 1.3% | -1.1% | -0.3 | -0.03% | 0.38 | 1.76% | 1.66% | -0.07 | 0.2% |
| Alfred Morris | WAS | -0.23 | 0.74% | -5.46% | -0.54 | -0.61% | -0.48 | 0.73% | -1.42% | -0.2 | -0.38% |
| DeMarco Murray | DAL | 0.74 | -0.12% | 2.41% | 0.19 | -0.58% | 0.47 | -0.02% | 3.36% | 0.34 | -0.36% |
| Branden Oliver | SD | -0.42 | -0.87% | 3.49% | 0.25 | 0.29% | -0.61 | -0.83% | 3.49% | 0.25 | 0.41% |
| Bobby Rainey | TB | 0.23 | -1.67% | 0.69% | 0.21 | -0.02% | 0.07 | -1.77% | 1.27% | 0.37 | 0.05% |
| Trent Richardson | IND | -0.57 | -1.02% | 1.03% | 0.15 | -0.61% | -0.66 | -0.83% | 2.52% | 0.2 | -0.49% |
| Theo Riddick | DET | -2.01 | -2.97% | 11.17% | 1.55 | 5.21% | -2.2 | -3.04% | 12.06% | 1.62 | 5.35% |
| Denard Robinson | JAX | 0.58 | 0.84% | 0.52% | -0.48 | -0.62% | 0.39 | 0.92% | 1.58% | -0.43 | -0.49% |
| Bishop Sankey | TEN | -0.3 | -1.71% | -2.76% | -0.34 | -0.62% | -0.49 | -1.68% | -2.75% | -0.34 | -0.5% |
| Charles Sims | TB | -1.34 | -3% | 0.43% | 0.07 | -0.67% | -1.54 | -2.96% | 0.43% | 0.07 | -0.54% |
| Darren Sproles | PHI | 2.29 | 7.66% | 1.75% | 0.73 | -0.61% | 2.09 | 7.7% | 1.75% | 0.73 | -0.49% |
| Jonathan Stewart | CAR | -0.31 | -0.42% | -2.27% | -0.33 | -0.61% | -0.58 | -0.48% | -1.82% | -0.32 | -0.5% |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | BAL | -0.01 | 3.23% | 4.19% | 1.36 | -0.66% | -0.21 | 3.26% | 4.19% | 1.36 | -0.53% |
| Ben Tate | CLE | -0.9 | 0.7% | -4.22% | -0.54 | -0.62% | -1.09 | 0.73% | -4.21% | -0.54 | -0.5% |
| Pierre Thomas | NO | 0.21 | 3.48% | 3.81% | 0.31 | 0.17% | -0.03 | 3.39% | 0.74% | 0.1 | 0.14% |
| Shane Vereen | NE | 0.26 | -1.44% | -0.5% | -0.11 | 0.62% | 0.08 | -1.49% | -2.24% | -0.39 | 0.59% |
| Terrance West | CLE | -0.5 | -0.2% | -4.55% | -0.65 | 0.67% | -0.69 | -0.17% | -4.55% | -0.65 | 0.79% |
| Andre Williams | NYG | -1.2 | 0.43% | -5.89% | -0.62 | -0.62% | -1.39 | 0.46% | -5.88% | -0.62 | -0.5% |
Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy remain among the most underachieving RBs, while Ahmad Bradshaw and Arian Foster remain among the most overachieving RBs. Excluding players like these that I've identified previously, we're left with a couple of new buy-low/sell-high candidates:
STANDARD buy-low candidate #1: montee ball
It doesn't inspire confidence when a player says that he deserves to be Wally Pipp'ed, but it's important to remember that the person who owns him in your league has just as little, if not less, confidence. You can probably acquire him for a song, and his +/- stats in the context of his Broncos career -- coupled with C.J. Anderson's current overachievement -- suggest the possibility of a resurgence if he's able to ascend back to first fiddle between now and the end of the season.
STANDARD buy-low candidate #2: charles sims
Continuing in the vein of bargain basement trade targets, there's Sims, who still sits behind Bobby Rainey in the Buccaneers pecking order at RB. Nevertheless, a variety of factors suggest that his ascension is only a matter of time. When that happens, his rate stats are highly likely to improve, especially with respect to yards and touchdowns, both rushing and receiving.
wide receivers
And now, the table with +/- stats for Footballguys' Top 60 WRs Forward (Top 10 underachievers are highlighted in green, while Top 10 overachievers are highlighted in yellow):
| Name | Tm | 2014 Only | Career w/ Tm | ||||
| RPRR +/- | YPRR +/- | TDPRR +/- | RPRR +/- | YPRR +/- | TDPRR +/- | ||
| Davante Adams | GB | -1.35% | -0.42 | -0.32% | -1.51% | -0.48 | -0.35% |
| Keenan Allen | SD | 0.44% | -0.19 | -0.69% | 0.63% | -0.39 | -0.88% |
| Doug Baldwin | SEA | -0.12% | -0.17 | -0.68% | 0.28% | -0.31 | -0.77% |
| Odell Beckham Jr | NYG | -0.45% | 0.02 | 0.23% | -0.62% | -0.05 | 0.19% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | CAR | -0.52% | 0 | 0.52% | -0.64% | -0.05 | 0.49% |
| Anquan Boldin | SF | 0.76% | 0.05 | -0.24% | -0.93% | -0.24 | -0.36% |
| Dwayne Bowe | KC | 0.82% | 0.06 | -0.97% | 2.03% | 0.13 | -1.19% |
| Kenny Britt | STL | -2.32% | -0.37 | -0.36% | -2.47% | -0.43 | -0.4% |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | 1.86% | 0.37 | 0.5% | 2.28% | 0.34 | 0.76% |
| John Brown | ARI | -0.6% | -0.1 | 0.69% | -0.75% | -0.16 | 0.65% |
| Dez Bryant | DAL | 1.53% | 0.35 | 0.95% | 3.31% | 0.48 | 0.73% |
| Martavis Bryant | PIT | 1.92% | 1.44 | 5.3% | 1.68% | 1.35 | 5.25% |
| Randall Cobb | GB | 0.23% | 0.13 | 1.48% | -1.5% | -0.01 | 1.52% |
| Marques Colston | NO | -1.63% | -0.2 | -0.69% | -5.19% | -0.5 | -1.1% |
| Brandin Cooks | NO | 0.45% | -0.16 | -0.23% | 0.32% | -0.22 | -0.27% |
| Michael Crabtree | SF | -0.17% | -0.24 | -0.19% | -1.1% | -0.42 | -0.18% |
| Eric Decker | NYJ | 0.45% | -0.17 | 0.1% | 0.31% | -0.23 | 0.06% |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 0.91% | -0.1 | -0.47% | 0.83% | 0.01 | -0.4% |
| Mike Evans | TB | 0.34% | 0.18 | 0.47% | 0.19% | 0.12 | 0.43% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | -0.11% | 0.02 | -0.47% | -0.68% | 0.01 | -0.76% |
| Malcom Floyd | SD | -1.67% | -0.05 | -0.18% | -2.3% | -0.24 | -0.16% |
| Michael Floyd | ARI | -2.32% | -0.33 | -0.47% | -3.43% | -0.4 | -0.32% |
| Pierre Garcon | WAS | -0.12% | -0.21 | -0.22% | -3.62% | -0.63 | -0.2% |
| A.J. Green | CIN | 0.86% | 0.46 | 0.63% | 0.11% | 0.3 | 0.4% |
| Percy Harvin | NYJ | 4.17% | 0.13 | -1.14% | 3.94% | 0.04 | -1.18% |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | 0.69% | 0.38 | -0.29% | 1.85% | 0.55 | -0.34% |
| Andre Holmes | OAK | -1.4% | -0.11 | 0.34% | -0.79% | -0.13 | 0.48% |
| DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 0.31% | 0.27 | 0.1% | 3.61% | 0.64 | 0.41% |
| Justin Hunter | TEN | -2.56% | -0.34 | -0.43% | -2.31% | -0.4 | -0.58% |
| DeSean Jackson | WAS | -0.45% | 0.48 | 0.11% | -0.59% | 0.42 | 0.07% |
| Vincent Jackson | TB | -0.78% | -0.19 | -0.49% | -1.45% | -0.59 | -0.63% |
| Alshon Jeffery | CHI | -0.24% | 0 | -0.26% | -0.19% | -0.15 | -0.29% |
| Greg Jennings | MIN | -1.22% | -0.26 | -0.48% | -2.35% | -0.3 | -0.43% |
| Andre Johnson | HOU | 1.23% | 0.06 | -0.68% | -1.62% | -0.57 | -0.92% |
| Calvin Johnson | DET | 0.51% | 0.31 | 0.22% | 0.86% | 0.1 | -0.02% |
| Steve Johnson | SF | 6.14% | 0.9 | 0.94% | 5.93% | 0.82 | 0.9% |
| James Jones | OAK | 0.95% | -0.15 | -0.17% | 0.81% | -0.21 | -0.2% |
| Julio Jones | ATL | 1.43% | 0.31 | -0.27% | 3.04% | 0.27 | -0.52% |
| Brandon LaFell | NE | -0.16% | 0.02 | 0.45% | -0.31% | -0.04 | 0.42% |
| Jarvis Landry | MIA | 2.49% | -0.04 | -0.19% | 2.32% | -0.11 | -0.23% |
| Jeremy Maclin | PHI | 0.04% | 0.25 | 0.72% | 1.66% | 0.65 | 0.93% |
| Brandon Marshall | CHI | -0.57% | -0.22 | 0.34% | -4.89% | -0.73 | 0.03% |
| Jordan Matthews | PHI | 0.2% | -0.12 | 0.43% | 0.06% | -0.19 | 0.4% |
| Jordy Nelson | GB | 1.73% | 0.55 | 1.01% | 4.3% | 0.78 | 1% |
| Rueben Randle | NYG | -0.43% | -0.34 | -0.48% | 0.84% | -0.39 | -0.66% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | DEN | 1.25% | 0.26 | 0.3% | 1.13% | 0.2 | 0.27% |
| Mohamed Sanu | CIN | 0.03% | 0.14 | 0.05% | 1.46% | 0.54 | 0.09% |
| Cecil Shorts | JAX | -0.02% | -0.18 | -0.66% | 1.01% | -0.23 | -0.68% |
| Steve Smith | BAL | 0.68% | 0.23 | 0.01% | 0.55% | 0.18 | -0.02% |
| Torrey Smith | BAL | -1.91% | -0.23 | 0.48% | -1.21% | -0.25 | 0.65% |
| Kenny Stills | NO | -0.99% | -0.1 | -0.65% | 2.16% | 0.09 | -0.66% |
| Golden Tate | DET | 1.7% | 0.35 | -0.29% | 1.58% | 0.29 | -0.32% |
| Demaryius Thomas | DEN | 1.96% | 0.56 | 0.38% | 3.54% | 0.59 | 0.08% |
| Mike Wallace | MIA | 0.24% | 0 | 0.68% | 1.77% | 0.18 | 0.9% |
| Sammy Watkins | BUF | -0.59% | -0.05 | 0.13% | -0.71% | -0.1 | 0.09% |
| Reggie Wayne | IND | -0.45% | -0.19 | -0.48% | -3.08% | -0.53 | -0.51% |
| Markus Wheaton | PIT | -0.98% | -0.25 | -0.46% | 0.01% | -0.16 | -0.4% |
| Roddy White | ATL | -0.65% | -0.19 | -0.02% | -3.42% | -0.57 | -0.08% |
| Terrance Williams | DAL | -1.79% | -0.23 | 0.57% | -0.92% | -0.2 | 0.67% |
| Robert Woods | BUF | -1.2% | -0.41 | -0.47% | 0.35% | -0.34 | -0.36% |
| Kendall Wright | TEN | -0.2% | -0.27 | 0.08% | -2.54% | -0.41 | 0.34% |
Again, WRs I've previously identified as buy-low candidates (i.e., Marques Colston, Brandon Marshall, and Roddy White) or sell-high candidates (i.e., Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant) remain same. Here are a few new additions:
standard sell-high candidate: martavis bryant
From the table, we can see that Bryant is clearly the yellow in Pittsburgh's black-and-yellow pass offense. Antonio Brown may be overachieving in his own right, but Bryant's currently in the midst of an almost-certainly unsustainable run of yardage and touchdowns: His 3.65 YPRR is nearly two yards better than the league average of 1.86, and his 7.06% TDPRR is over four times the league average. To put that further into perspective, Randy Moss has the highest career TDPRR in my database, which dates back to 2007, and Bryant's is currently two-and-a-half times higher than Moss's (2.68%). Don't get me wrong, Bryan'ts a supremely talented WR who figures to be a cornerstone of Pittsburgh's pass offense for years to come. It's just that, over time, there's practically zero chance that he stays on his current YPRR and TDPRR paces.
ppr buy-low candidate: davante adams
In an offense with that much firepower, it's no surprise that a rookie wideout isn't receiving as much attention from Aaron Rodgers as are Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. But therein lies the rub: Just as Nelson's wild True RPRR overperformance is likely to abate at some point, Adams' underperformance is likely to as well. In other words, Adams is likely to directly benefit from Nelson's RTM in the PPR department. The underlying mechanism here is Targets per Route Run (TPRR): Adams has run only 70 fewer routes than Nelson, but he's been on the receiving end of 48 fewer targets. Indeed, league-average TPRR is 18.9%, and Adams' is 14.5%, while Nelson's is 26.7%.
tight ends
And finally, below is the table for Footballguys' Top 36 TEs Forward (Top 6 underachievers are highlighted in green, while Top 6 overachievers are highlighted in yellow):
| Name | Tm | 2014 Only | Career w/ Tm | ||||
| RPRR +/- | YPRR +/- | TDPRR +/- | RPRR +/- | YPRR +/- | TDPRR +/- | ||
| Dwayne Allen | IND | -0.94% | 0.09 | 1.33% | -0.47% | -0.03 | 0.25% |
| Jace Amaro | NYJ | 2.12% | -0.05 | -0.35% | 2.1% | -0.09 | -0.29% |
| Martellus Bennett | CHI | 1.19% | 0.15 | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0 | -0.08% |
| Jordan Cameron | CLE | -2.03% | 0.35 | -0.56% | -0.26% | -0.03 | -0.19% |
| Brent Celek | PHI | -1.84% | -0.27 | -1.17% | -0.04% | 0 | -0.08% |
| Scott Chandler | BUF | -1.93% | -0.22 | -0.8% | -0.39% | -0.05 | -0.12% |
| Charles Clay | MIA | 0.17% | -0.15 | -0.48% | -0.06% | -0.05 | -0.06% |
| Jared Cook | STL | -0.46% | 0.11 | -0.79% | -0.26% | 0.03 | -0.24% |
| Owen Daniels | BAL | 1.08% | 0 | -0.1% | 1.06% | -0.04 | -0.04% |
| Vernon Davis | SF | -2.93% | -0.44 | -0.38% | -0.1% | 0 | 0.04% |
| Larry Donnell | NYG | 0.58% | -0.09 | 0.25% | -0.02% | -0.17 | 0.11% |
| Eric Ebron | DET | -3.42% | -0.49 | -0.52% | -3.44% | -0.53 | -0.45% |
| Zach Ertz | PHI | -1% | 0.08 | -0.43% | -0.09% | 0.08 | -0.06% |
| Gavin Escobar | DAL | -0.69% | 0.02 | 3.04% | -2.55% | -0.22 | 1.07% |
| Coby Fleener | IND | -2.5% | -0.22 | 0.08% | -0.73% | -0.1 | -0.16% |
| Antonio Gates | SD | -0.02% | 0.09 | 1.49% | 0.01% | 0.01 | 0.06% |
| Garrett Graham | HOU | -4.31% | -0.58 | -1.15% | -0.73% | -0.14 | -0.21% |
| Jimmy Graham | NO | 3.12% | 0.3 | 0.75% | 0.45% | 0.08 | 0.26% |
| Ladarius Green | SD | 0.3% | 0.29 | -1.31% | -0.38% | 0.39 | -0.16% |
| Jermaine Gresham | CIN | 1.16% | -0.2 | -1.12% | -0.01% | -0.04 | -0.1% |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 3.63% | 0.7 | 1.43% | 0.49% | 0.14 | 0.54% |
| Clay Harbor | JAX | -0.63% | -0.12 | -0.76% | -0.36% | -0.07 | -0.4% |
| Travis Kelce | KC | 3.83% | 0.66 | 0.71% | 3.81% | 0.62 | 0.78% |
| Lance Kendricks | STL | 1.57% | -0.13 | 1.61% | -0.28% | -0.08 | -0.07% |
| Marcedes Lewis | JAX | 1.53% | 0.42 | 0.43% | -0.16% | -0.02 | -0.08% |
| Heath Miller | PIT | -0.79% | -0.11 | -0.59% | -0.02% | -0.01 | -0.08% |
| Greg Olsen | CAR | 0.65% | 0.19 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0 | -0.05% |
| Niles Paul | WAS | 2.09% | 0.57 | -0.72% | 0.13% | 0.24 | -0.51% |
| Jordan Reed | WAS | 6.66% | 0.45 | -1.29% | 3.14% | 0.28 | -0.32% |
| Mychal Rivera | OAK | -0.29% | -0.25 | -0.23% | -0.48% | -0.16 | -0.12% |
| Kyle Rudolph | MIN | -1.25% | -0.32 | -0.24% | -0.32% | -0.11 | 0.1% |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TB | -2.62% | -0.35 | -0.37% | -2.64% | -0.39 | -0.31% |
| Julius Thomas | DEN | 0.11% | -0.01 | 2.1% | -0.16% | -0.1 | 2.04% |
| Delanie Walker | TEN | 0.31% | 0.19 | 0.02% | -0.13% | -0.05 | -0.02% |
| Luke Willson | SEA | -4.8% | -0.66 | -0.56% | -1.99% | -0.23 | -0.51% |
| Jason Witten | DAL | -0.07% | -0.04 | -0.31% | 0.18% | 0.02 | -0.06% |
| Timothy Wright | NE | 2.9% | 0.25 | 1.44% | 2.88% | 0.2 | 1.51% |
ppr buy-low candidate: austin seferian-jenkins
There are a few things working in favor of trading for Mr. S-J. (Excuse the shorthand, but I'm not typing out an 18-character last name if I can help it.) First, among 33 TEs that have run 150 or more routes this season, he ranks 28th in TPRR. Relatedly, the return of Josh McCown appears to have signaled the return of Mr. S-J's TPRR (22.2% in Week 10). Third, with upcoming games against Chicago and Washington, the fantasy strength of schedule for Tampa Bay tight ends is about to get much easier than it's been so far this season.
ppr sell-high candidate: travis kelce
If Mr. S-J's the definition of "decoy," then a route run by Kelce is the definition of "tipping one's hand." Kelce ranks 16th in targets even though he's only run the 33rd-most routes among TEs. That translates to an amazing stat: At 25.1%, only Rob Gronkowski (29.7%) and Jimmy Graham (25.7%) rank ahead of him in TPRR. Clearly, Alex Smith and Andy Reid trust Kelce; and for good reason. However, unlike Gronkowski and Graham, who play nearly every snap, there will come a time -- perhaps soon, perhaps not -- when opposing defenses realize that Kelce's presence on the field means he's highly likely to be targeted. When that happens, his RPRR will come back down to earth.
