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True Fantasy Points: 2016 Wide Receiver Projections

A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in wide receiver projections.

This month I've detailed True Fantasy Points (TFP) for quarterbacks and running backs. In those previous articles, I described or linked to my methodology, so feel free to click on the above links if you're curious. Today's focus is on wide receivers, which -- depending on the scoring system -- has emerged as the most highly sought-after position in fantasy football. At present, average draft position (ADP) suggests that, in a 12-team league, five wide receivers will be gone by the end of Round 1, 11 will be gone by the end of Round 2, and 17 will be gone by the end of Round 3.

So, in this day and age of fantasy football, several of your leaguemates have embraced the trend. The effect of more wide receivers coming off the board and coming off the board earlier makes the process of drafting them sometimes feel like riding a tiger. What follows should help you dismount, landing on wide receivers that are the real deal more often than on the ones that aren't.

These decisions will be based on the following receiving stats:

  • Receptions per Route Run (RPRR)
  • Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
  • Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR)

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