Welcome back to the third annual installment of my article detailing my statistical approach to playoff fantasy football projections. If you're new to how this works, stop right now and check out last year's article and/or the one before that. Before presenting this year's projections, it's worthwhile to look back at last year's with respect to both expected games played and projected points for playoff teams in 2015.
Regarding the former, it turns out that the mean absolute error (MAE) for last season's 12 playoff teams was 0.5. This is both troubling and informative. A value of 0.5 here means that playoff results last season were tantamount to random chance. So, I'm troubled because my playoff fantasy football system is based on expected games played, and I'm informed because it tells me I should be focusing on underdogs. Of course, on the other hand, this is only one season's worth of data, so I also don't want to jump to conclusions.
With respect to how last year's projections for total player points fared, here's a quick summary:
- For quarterbacks, MAE was 10.7 points.
- For running backs, MAE was 9.7 points.
- For wide receivers, MAE was 9.3 points.
- For tight ends, MAE was 6.0 points.
- For kickers, MAE was 9.7 points.
- For defenses, MAE was 11.7 points.