Dynasty Trade Value Chart: Week 11

Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

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This will be the 3rd and final in-season update to my dynasty trade value chart. For a refresher on methodology, please check out my preseason trade value chart. The goal here is to attempt to use statistical projections for the rest of the 2014 season and statistical projections for future years to try to determine the true dynasty value of each player based upon the factors that will actually win you your league (points scored!) as opposed to wishy washy, vague impressions of value based upon non-analytical factors.

Before we dive into the position-by-position breakdown of player values, let's take a couple moments to discuss a few factors that you should strongly consider when using the following rankings and specific values to formulate trade offers and trade strategy...

1. Know your league scoring and starting lineup requirements. This cannot be stressed enough. One of the biggest mistakes inexperienced dynasty owners (and even many experienced owners) make is using the "one-size fits all" approach to player valuation instead of adjusting to fit league specifics. There are great dynasty ratings that you can find here at Footballguys.com and elsewhere. There is also somewhat of a consensus that devleops (especially in the offseason) and you can usually come up with a good idea of what the rankings would look like for a completely average league. However, each league is so different in terms of scoring rules, starting lineup, number of teams in the league and other smaller factors so that you absolutely must tweak whatever rankings (or player valuations like you see below) you plan to use to fit your specific league. The rankings below are made quite specifically for a 12 team PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and one flex spot. If your league does not fit this exact setup, then you should take that into account and try to adjust the values accordingly. For example, if you only have to start one RB, then all RBs are de-valued, especially the non-elite rushers. 

2. Know your league's and leaguemates' trade tendencies. Some owners and even some leagues (or at least the vast majority of owners in those leagues) tend to overvalue youth while some tend to overvalue proven veterans. Some leagues seem to irrationally overvalue RBs, WRs or QBs vs. other positions. If you plan on using these trade values as a tool in your trade strategy, it may be useful to try to determine where your league fits on the overall spectrum with regard to these factors. If an offer of Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans would not even be in the ballpark in terms of getting you a player like Calvin Johnson or Jordy Nelson, then your league probably undervalues young players. If Johnson or Nelson would not get you even close to landing Watkins or Evans, your league probably undervalues veteran players. Try to take advantage of these quirks specific to your own league (or to a specific owner in your league) whenever possible. 

3. Know where your team is at in terms of contending vs. rebuilding and be honest with yourself about it. Successful dynasty owners always have a plan and know where their team is realitically situated within the league heirarchy. The worst thing you can do as an owner is make "win now" type trades desperately trying to put yourself in position to contend (or sneak into the playoffs) when your team just is not in position to make a real run. This is the formula that most often leads to wallowing in mediocrity for long stretches. On the other hand, successful dynasty management does often require you to strike while the iron is hot. There is nothing wrong with slightly overpaying to fill a need if you are legitimately one of the favorites for the title. As Herm Edwards put it so eloquently, "you play to win the game!" Do not lose sight of that and go too overboard in trying to build the youngest, prettiest roster all the time. At some point, you need to have a plan to try to win your league. Make an honest appraisal of where you currently stand versus the rest of the league and really think about what direction you want to take your roster in before hitting send on those trade offers.

With these three points in mind, here is one final snapshot of where Dynasty Players should be valued as of today...

As you will notice, there are two values listed for each player: Value to a Contender and Future Value. If your team is in contention, you will obviously value a player with high short-term value more highly than a team that has already been eliminated from the 2014 playoff race. The "Value to a Contender" column is most relevant to you as it takes into account both 2014 production down the stretch of this season and future value. Teams building for the future should be looking to make trades for players for players with the highest possible future value and thus the "Fusture Value" column is the best gauge of player value for your team. A rebuilding squad trading Marshawn Lynch to a contender with a need at RB for a young player like Bishop Sankey is a win-win for both teams and the exact sort of mid-season trade every team should be pursuing depending upon their status as contender (and specific needs) or rebuilding team.

Wide Receiver

The Rookie WR Class

The impact of the Rookie WR class is amazing when looking at the rankings 12 of the top 33 WRs in terms of overall value (Contender column) are rookies. There will inevitably be some of these 12 rookies who end up being "just guys" in fantasy terms, so it would be unwise to assume that each is anything near a sure thing at this point. The goal is to try to balance the risk/reward and you want to own guys who have a chance to be special (however small that chance may be) vs. guys you have seen enough of to know that they are never likely going to be fantasy WR1s or WRs. Thus, it makes sense to rank some rookies with real upside over veterans who have already reached their peak.

On the other side of that coin, none of the rookies are currently ranked higher than #8 Overall WR (Sammy Watkins). That too is likely to change as these players establish larger bodies of work and start to reach new fantasy heights. I would be shocked if at least one or two (maybe more) of this rookie WR class' members don't end up as top 5 WR at some point. There is just too much potential and a few from this group are likely to "hit" in a big way. 

Smaller WRs

Aside from the rookies, the other thing that stands out is the ascendancy of the smaller WRs. Perhaps it is due to the new rules in terms of enforcing pass interference against the defense, but the little fellas are producing at prodigious levels. Antonio Brown, T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb and Emmanuel Sanders are producing at prodigious levels. Rookies like Brandin Cooks, John Brown and Odell Beckham, Jr. are shaping up to be big producers as well. In general, it seems that the fantasy community at large is underrating these smaller players and each deserves to be higher than where they fall in the consensus rankings. Whether this is a temporary trend or the start of something bigger, it is advisable to pay less attention to size when scouting WR prospects than in the past. Even the little guys can be fantasy monsters in today's NFL.

Running Back 

Short-term productivity

My attitude towards older RBs is evolving a bit as this ranking process has moved forward. It just seems that trying to project future production beyond one or two years in the future is a foolhardy task that is destined to be a failure. That is especially true with a wave of young talent at the RB position set to hit the NFL in the next few years (the 2015 RB is LOADED). Thus, there is a bit less stock put in future production beyond the 2016 season and more of a "what can you do for me now?" type of mindest. In other words, pay fair market value for the veterans (Forte, Murray, Lynch, Foster, etc.) and let others chase the unknown potential types that may or may not ever pan out (Isaiah Crowell, Christine Michael, etc.). 

If you are building for the future and looking to add some young RBs, there are a lot of young runners with pretty similar trade value that should be available at a fair price. It all comes down to picking the right players from the large group of possibilities. Charles Sims, Denard Robinson and Terrance West are all players who are worthy targets for rebuilding teams looking to hit a homerun at the position.

 Quarterback

Think short-term at QB?

Many will disagree with having the older QBs as high as they appear here. However, when really running the projections and looking at it in terms of value over replacement level production, the thing that becomes glaringly obvious is that one elite Peyton Manning season is worth almost a half dozen good but not great years from guys like Ryan, Newton, Wilson, etc. Thus, outside of the top 2 QBs (Luck and Rodgers) who should provide both high-level production and longevity, the choice becomes likely elite short-term production vs. likely mediocre long-term production. For now, the numbers point towards taking the elite QB production now and worrying about 2016 and beyond at a later date. Even after Manning retires, an owner should be able to find a reasonably productive replacement for cheap and come out ahead in the long run.

 Tight End

 The elites separate

The story of the TE position is the separation between the top two TEs (Graham and Gronkowski) and the rest of the field. Now that both players are getting close to 100% healthy, they are simply lapping the field in terms of productivity. Due to this, both should be viewed as amongst the elite fantasy players regardless of position. The search for the "next Graham/Gronkowski" continues and no single contender has really been able to separate from the back. Thus the ranking remain jumbled with many TEs packed closely together, especially from #9 through #20. The educated guess is that a few from this group "hit", a few "bust" and a few just sort of muddle along as low-end TE1s or high-end TE2s. Place your bets. My money is on Eifert, Sefarian-Jenkins and Rudolph as the best bets to breakout next season and that is why they are ranked slightly higher than their peers.