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1. JAY AJAYI'S 200-YARD GAME
I had this pet theory after the Thursday Night Cincinnati game that Ajayi had a good chance of rebounding from a poor start this season but there could be a significant Whiplash Effect in re-draft leagues because the offensive line may prove too inconsistent to cooperate with Ajayi's maturation. Sunday's effort against the Steelers is an excellent example.
The Dolphins have been shuffling its line and to enhance its run game, it opened the game with a three-tight end set (I'll be writing more about the proliferation of multiple tight ends and the fantasy impact later in this week's Top 10). The use of two tight ends as lead blockers on this variation of a power play generated the first of several huge creases for Ajayi on the day.
Most of the Ajayi's best runs of the game came at the expense of the left side of the Steelers defense. With DE Cameron Heyward and ILB Ryan Shazier in the training room and Vince Williams later joining them, it's not a surprise that Ajayi and the Dolphins ran to the left and did so with abandon.
By game's end, Ajayi and the Dolphins had so thoroughly whipped this Steeler front that the Miami runner iced the game with a 68-yard score off the right side of the Pittsburgh front.
Don't let it go unnoticed that this game-sealing run was authored by a two tight end set. It's likely that Miami opted for more of these sets because it knew the Steelers defense was a weakened unit. It doesn't mean that the Dolphins will abandon it, either. As I described in the link above, "If you're a re-draft owner, it's Jarvis Landry and a bunch of dice rolls."
DeVante Parker is a dice roll every time a ball is thrown in his vicinity. He dropped a touchdown pass this weekend because he still doesn't know how to play under control with his arms and hands. Kenny Stills is even less consistent.
Ajayi's best chance for another dream match up like this weekend comes Week 12 against the 49ers and there are stiffer match-ups in between like the Bills, Jets, and Rams. But all three teams can be beaten on the ground, especially if the Dolphins use more multiple tight end sets and rely on scheme trickery than its unreliable route runners and pass catchers on the perimeter.
The bigger question is whether they do so. What I can tell you is that Ajayi likely bought himself at least 1-2 weeks of feature back volume from this game. He also did good work as a blocker.
If you need a RB3, Ajayi is a high-risk, high-reward option. Whether you're buying or selling, it's how I value him when you cut through the initial B.S. in a negotiation. And I'd take the risk because only the Chargers and Cardinals have offenses that have the look of units that might develop into consistent point scorers.
2. PATRIOTS' PASSING OFFENSE: A MAN-ZONE THEORY
One of the most confounding units for fantasy purposes is the Patriots offense beyond the obvious plays of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. I have a working theory after watching New England for the past two weeks. It will probably be trashed sooner than later, but it's worth monitoring along with me.
Opponents That Play A Lot of Man
- Buffalo (Week 8): Technically, the Bills play a lot of Cover 4 zone but its style of zone converts to man against "inside" routes often run by tight ends. It also plays its share of press coverage.
- San Francisco (Week 11): The 49ers like to play press coverage.
- New York Jets (Weeks 12 & 16): Darrelle Revis...
- Baltimore (Week 14): A lot of man on the outside.
- Denver (Week 15)
Opponents That Play A Lot of Zone
- Pittsburgh (Week 7): Although some of these options have higher upside based on the defensive scheme, I wouldn't downgrade Bennett, Hogan, or Blount when they're not facing those units.
- Seattle (Week 10): Although Seattle is known for Richard Sherman coverage skills, the Seahawks are essentially a zone defense.
- L.A. (Week 13): Gregg Williams will use his share of press man to blitz defenses but he also likes to place his safeties in disguised zones.
Optimal Pats vs. Man:
- Martellus Bennett: The Browns played a lot of man coverage and Bennett's size poses difficulties for linebackers and safeties at the catch-point and after the catch. The two tight end alignments and play-action also give Bennett big-play opportunities because the opposing corner, safety, or linebacker has to honor the run.
- Chris Hogan: Not as fast as Edelman, Hogan is a better receiver at the catch-point on downfield targets. He's a physical receiver and tracks the ball better against tight coverage. Because he's slower than Edelman, he's often the target on play-action deep routes involving those heavy run sets with two tight ends.
- LeGarrette Blount: Defenses are more likely to honor the run in two tight end sets with him in the backfield in comparison to James White. Blount is also a decent screen receiver and an excellent draw runner. He'll have some big runs when Brady and company break the huddle in heavy sets with tight ends to the same side but then shift pre-snap to a shotgun look with both tight ends split from the formation as receivers on each side.
Optimal Pats vs. Zone:
- Julian Edelman: Mostly a slot receiver, Edelman performs better when a cover corner isn't assigned to him. When Brady can run play-action and find Edelman behind the linebackers on deep crossers or in-cuts that let him work across the field with a running start, he's in for big days. Cincinnati rushed four and dropped seven with regularity this weekend and it was Edelman who earned a team-high 7 targets among the wide receivers.
- James White: White had some moments against the Browns two weeks ago, but he was at his best against the zone-oriented Bengals. He earned nine targets and caught eight of them for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brady often targeted White under the linebackers in the right flat for nice gains, including one of White's touchdowns. He's just quick enough to do damage. If Dion Lewis returns to form, substitute his name here.
- Danny Amendola: Amendola is a terrific zone option when healthy. If you need a bye-week desperation flier, you can do worse than Amendola when the Patriots face zone-heavy defensive units.
3. GAME SCRIPT, WEATHER, OR CAUTION? THE QUESTION OF WARE OR CHARLES
Sigmund Bloom and I chewed on the question of Spencer Ware or Jamaal Charles this week and the rest of the year. I leaned towards Ware this week but agree with Bloom that if Charles is really back to his old form, it's no contest. The problem is knowing for sure if he is.
We thought we might get that answer this weekend, but the outcome for the Chiefs' running back outlook was as clear as the Oakland mud in this rain-soaked contest. Both players had multiple reasons: they earned red zone opportunities and capitalized, each was used in the passing game with success, and there was no inside-outside designation.
If you examine the game solely from the box score, Ware was the big winner. He continued his roles as if Charles was nothing more than Charcandrick West's substitute. Ware had big gains on designed runs to the outside and he continued his run as one of the most productive outlet receivers in the league.
Charles's best gain came on this run to the right side after the Chiefs did a thorough job of manipulating safety Reggie Nelson to migrate to the left side of the formation after a series of pre-snap shifts.
I can't say Charles looked exactly like the Charles of old, but I don't think it would be fair to say it has to do with his injury. The field was soggy and every player was wearing spikes. The Chiefs were far enough ahead that it made no sense for the offense to lean on Charles with this game script in this weather.
This is especially the case if you believe Ware will be the real back up. He's already on the field, let him finish it and be glad that Charles earned some runs inside and showed he could still push a pile and take some hits.
The problem with this argument is that Ware looks good and the only thing he doesn't offer that (a completely healthy) Charles does is breakaway touchdown potential. As we've seen, Ware is an explosive back if you're counting explosive plays (runs of at least 12 yards) the way the NFL does. He's also more powerful and less likely to bounce plays outside that can create losses.
The only true knock on Ware is three fumbles lost this year. Ware never fumbled at LSU or during his limited time in Seattle so it's unlikely a huge problem and the Chiefs let him play through it, which is a sign of confidence in the back.
If I have to give you an answer to this RB conundrum, I'm betting on this situation evolving into committee much like Ware-West last year where each back earned time in every facet of the game. But if I were to favor one more than the other based on this game, I'm wondering if Charles has regained his top-end burst and speed and therefore I'd stick with Ware.
It's not like you're going to get much for him in a trade. The time to make that deal was the beginning of the year...
4. PAPER CHAMPION: EZEKIEL ELLIOTT MR. T'S THE PACKERS RUN DEFENSE
The Packers' defense only allowed 43 yards per game on the ground before the Cowboys came to Lambeau Field. Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys' offensive line were on a three-game streak of 130-yard games. It was the first time that a runner had this productive a streak since Adrian Peterson a few years ago.
When it was all over, Elliott became the first to make it a four-game streak. The Packers run defense is good, but the stats implied it was an excellent unit. Dallas showed the NFL that the Packers front was a paper champion. The Jaguars, Vikings, Lions, and Giants lacked the backs, the line, or both to sustain a ground game like the Cowboys.
Dallas did a fantastic job of opening creases inside and outside. It was a showcase weekend for Ezekiel Elliott to show off his rare skills. This cut downhill is one of those plays.
While his change of direction is impressive for his size and speed, so is his skill for avoiding contact by twisting and turning his body at the last moment to get skinny against penetration.
And you have to love the way he can square and hit a blitzing defender. He's one of the best every-down backs in the league and he's not even two months into his NFL career.
I hope you drafted him in the first round if it seemed warranted based on the knowledge of your league mates. Elliott doesn't face a stiff test until Dallas' Week 13 match up with the Vikings. As good as the Vikings are, I think Elliott has a good shot to earn 80-100 total yards and a touchdown if the offensive line remains intact.
5. LIKE THE SANDS THROUGH AN HOURGLASS, THESE ARE THE GAMES OF COUSINS' LIFE
I have never been a Kurt Cousins fan. One reason is based on game study, the other is totally unfair to Cousins. That bad reason is a negative bias of his image.
College football media cast him as a golly-gee, front-running, golden boy who could do no wrong. If Russell Wilson seems like he's trying to hard to be that guy right now, it's probably because the media stole Wilson's share and heaped it onto Cousins' bandwagon. It appeared as if Cousins was supposed to become Tom Brady in the NFL, retire into politics, and save the world with his golden locks and Midwestern sensibilities.
I suppose it could have been worse...he could have gone to Notre Dame.
None of that is remotely fair. What mattered more is his game, which I thought with development, projected to a high-functioning NFL backup capable of guiding a good team to a winning season and a great one deep into the playoffs. But I didn't see a starter.
One of Cousins' greatest issues is knowing his physical limitations versus pressure in the pocket. Although the outcome of the play below was harmless, I've seen many instances where Cousins threw interceptions or lost the ball in situations that were remarkably similar—both college and pro tape.
The motivation doesn't matter as much as the behavior and outcome, but I wondered if Cousins bought the hype that he was a savior and had an inflated sense of his physical abilities because of it. I wondered if he looked in the mirror and saw this guy staring back at him...
Compounding the issue, is that Cousins often gets away with this behavior. He's in that in between space where his arm is strong enough for some of these throws, but not strong enough for others.
This two-play sequence in the next video shows a fine play followed by a fine mess.
It's why he earns derision from fans and media. But I'm beginning to come around to the idea of admiring Cousins' game. I'm not sold on him by any means, but there are things about him that have begrudgingly won me over.
One of these things is his ability to rebound from bad plays. You can't remain in the league if you go into a shell. After the pick-six above, Cousins makes a great opposite-hash throw to DeSean Jackson at the perfect spot. This target should have been a touchdown.
And it wasn't the only good vertical throw that Cousins made in this game. He found Jackson on a deep cross in stride and he hit Vernon Davis on a wheel route for a score.
If you need to make some moves and you can trade for Cousins as a match-up QB in a committee, I'd do it—especially with the opportunity to buy low with Jordan Reed out. Detroit, Green Bay, a rematch with Philadelphia, Carolina, and Chicago are all on the schedule. You'll have to dodge, Cincinnati, Minnestoa, and maybe a healthier Arizona, but I think this offense has the weapons to buy into (mainly Jackson, Crowder, and Davis) if you need to sell a stud for multiple well-function parts.
6. CATCH OF THE WEEK: SMOKED VAITAI ON A PHILLY ROLL
In Friday's Best Of Week 6, I mentioned the suspension of Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson and the impending initiation of Halapoulivaati Vaitai, the fifth-round prospect from TCU who Matt Bitonti described as "extremely raw." I didn't think Vaitai would hurt the ground game this week against Washington's suspect run defense, but I had future concerns about the vulnerabilities Johnson's absence could create elsewhere.
It happened sooner than later. Exhibit 1...
Exhibit 2...
Exhibit 3...
Exhibit 6 (I skipped exhibits 4-5, I didn't want Jason Wood to get ill)...
Vaitai might be the first person to limit Carson Wentz in the NFL. It was that bad. We actually got a chance to see what Wentz would have looked like with the Rams or Browns: limited production, but many impressive moments under duress.
When he had time, Wentz's precision would have made Bill Walsh smile and nod in approval. He actually made Jordan Matthews look like Jerry Rice for the first time since some media wanted to compare the two.
Good throws can dress receivers up nicely, can't they? Most of the time, Wentz was stuck in situations like the one below.
The Eagles had to use its backs and tight ends at the line to help Vaitai. If this continues and Vaitai doesn't dramatically improve, I fear that Wentz is about to look a lot more like a rookie and it could reduce the potential of his weapons that fantasy owners actually consider for their lineups.
7. WORD FROM THE CAPTAIN: FLIGHT DELAY IN SEATTLE
Seattle and Atlanta had an exciting game this weekend. As a long-time Atlanta observer and a Seattle fan, I can say that the Seahawks got away with a serious amount of home cooking when the officials didn't call Richard Sherman for pass interference on the post route up the left hash during the final moments of the game. It as a bad call that unfairly ended a seesaw affair.
The biggest takeaway I gleaned from the game is that Seattle is not far from performing like the two-time Super Bowl team it was in 2013-2014 but the impending ascent is delayed until further notice.
The most important pieces that are missing might not be Russell Wilson. Jake Matthews cut the knees of defensive lineman Michael Bennett late in the first half and in an instant, cut the knees of Seattle's ability to rush the passer with four men.
Bennett commanded a double team on this third-down play deep in Atlanta territory and with the help of Sherman jamming Julio Jones on the slant route, Matt Ryan held onto the ball too long and gave Cliff Avril time for the strip sack.
On the next play, Christine Michael scored and Seattle had a 14-point lead. Although Atlanta saw more blitzes from Seattle than the average opponent, what makes the Seahawks defense so potent is its ability to play its scheme straight-up and dare you to beat it without much trickery or cheating of men out of position.
Bennett's injury is 'nothing serious' according to Pete Carroll, which probably translates to him missing no more than 2-3 weeks, if any time at all. Still, any time missed will mean a flight delay because we already saw that Wilson isn't ready.
When we see Wilson break the play above for 20-30 yards, this offense will take off. As I mentioned weeks ago, the components are in place and performing well. It's the triggerman who is limited.
Sunday, the absence of Bennett and Kam Chancellor also hurt the defense. It also didn't help that Kyle Shanahan found ways to confounde Sherman and Chancellor's replacement multiple times. One of those was this 36-yard score to Jones.
Another was a 46-yard TD to Levine Toilolo from an unbalanced line where he was the second tight end running free due to a blown coverage. Toilolo was so open, he stumbled in disbelief halfway to the end zone.
If you own the Seahawks defense, stay patient. If you don't, it might be time to buy low. I'd say the same with Wilson, Christine Michael owners who fear Rawls, and fickle Doug Baldwin owners.
8. LOSING ISAIAH?
Is the run for Isaiah Crowell over? Many think so after Crowell did little against the Tennessee Titans. But (like the Browns fan I'll always be...) I'm (foolishly) optimistic.
Sometimes you have to play the fool to catch the wise, so stay with me here.
With a safety in the box, the Titans dared Cleveland to throw the ball from the beginning of the game. The Browns had early success and by the second quarter, the offense had thrown the ball nine times and run it three—two of them unsuccessfully to Crowell, to no fault of his own.
Rookie Cody Kessler is playing good football and he looks like the player I saw at USC. One of his strengths is touch and placement in the red zone. This touchdown against double coverage is a difficult throw and he makes it look easy.
He he also authored a long play to Ricardo Louis after breaking the pocket to his right and tossing a touch pass across his body over the defense for Louis to run under. It's this skill to flow in and outside of structure and maintain his equilibrium that earns the admiration of his coach Hue Jackson.
But Kessler is lacking in the vertical game and it allows opponents to put a safety in the box without fearing retribution. With Josh McCown or Robert Griffin, the play below is more likely a touchdown and the threat of Cleveland going deep opens things up for Crowell.
Fortunately, McCown practiced in a limited capacity last week and is expected to do more this week. It won't be long before McCown and Corey Coleman return. The Browns' line is good enough to match up with tougher defensive fronts if those opponents can't cheat with extra defenders in the box.
It's also the second game where Jackson has gotten away from Crowell and paid the price. There was better reason in this contest, but I suspect we'll see more effort to keep Crowell in the mix.
9. MAKING SENSE OF THE WAVE OF MULTIPLE TE SETS
One of the things I'm noticing league-wide is the proliferation of multiple tight end sets in the passing game or to generate big-play runs that defenses aren't expecting. One of the reasons Marcus Mariota remains a viable committee QB for fantasy owners are the potential for explosive plays that the Titans are scheming with two and three tight ends.
This run from a 3-TE set came on the opening play of the game for the Titans. Cleveland expects a DeMarco Murray run inside but Mariota keeps it and works around the inside and outside seal of the tight ends line on the formation and the lead block of Delanie Walker who motioned across the formation before the snap.
Mariota hit two deep shots from multiple tight end sets. One went for a touchdown to Kendall Wright. The other is this play below.
Mariota also threw a touchdown in the red area from one of these sets. While the options beyond Murray and Walker aren't predictable, Mariota's upside for big plays is enhanced by these sets.
This is the same for Matt Ryan and options not named Julio Jones in Atlanta's offense. I described the Toilolo TD earlier. Here it is in all its sickening glory for Seahawks fans.
The non-quarterback benefiting the most from these types of sets is rookie Hunter Henry. Thanks to the injuries to Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates, the Chargers had to accelerate Henry's timetable for seeing the field.
Catching passes and getting open in the middle of the field has never been a weakness of the rookie, but he's a suspect blocker at this stage of his development. The Chargers' use of two and three-tight end sets has not only relieved Henry of responsibility of more difficult blocking assignments, the schemes create clear-out opportunities in zones that give the rookie room to run.
The Chargers have build on successful plays that its opponents scout from preceding weeks and add wrinkles. In previous weeks, Henry was the beneficiary of a rub route with Gates on the opposite side as the first read. Against Denver, the Chargers faked a screen to the outside receiver and Henry ran past the defender who anticipated the tight end the block. The result was an easy score.
And as I mentioned, most of the runs in San Diego are away from Henry in these sets.
When Henry is blocking, he's often in the dual role of a pass protector in a double-team and an outlet player. The play-action game also becomes a part of this equation so teams are respecting the run and aren't teeing off on him.
Expect to see more of these sets from the Chargers, Titans, Dolphins, and Eagles. It should benefit the ground game and the quarterbacks.
10. FRESH FISH
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up:
Catch Of The Day: Smoke Vaitai on a Philly Roll (See No.6)
The One That Got Away: Jaguars Jalen Ramsey. Alshon Jeffery schooled him for seven catches in the first half. But Ramsey shut down Jeffery in the second half and then baited Brian Hoyer into throwing a dig route in the waning minutes so he undercut it for the game-ending play.
The Rest of Week 6's Fresh Fish
- Packers CB Ladarius Gunter who gave up consecutive big plays to Terrence Williams and Brice Butler, including a touchdown.
- Seahawks CB Richard Sherman and S Kelcie McCray who twice confused their coverage responsibilities and gave up 72 yards and 2 touchdowns that put Atlanta back in the ball game.
- The Silver and Black Welcome Mat that gave up a career day to Spencer Ware on a muddy track.
- Jarvis Jones and the left side of the Steelers line. Jay Ajayi ran wild on them all day. I think he's still running.
- The left side of the Colts line that kept Houston in Sunday night's game by giving Lamar Miller the edge on most of his runs in that direction.
- Broncos inside linebacker Brandon Marshall, who got beat silly on this double move by Hunter Henry. He's still suffering flashbacks from the Tevin Coleman Experience.