1. Another false postive? Atlanta Falcons Fantasy outlook
I've been writing the Falcons' recaps for Footballguys since 2009 and Atlanta's performance against the Carolina Panthers surprised me. I could fall back on the clichés that divisional games are always competitive regardless of the records of the two teams and that Atlanta beat Carolina at home last year. But this won't help you understand the Falcons' fantasy outlook based on the ramifications of this game.
What surprised me was offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Last year, his scheme and play-calling were predictable and it caught up with the Falcons after a 5-0 start. I began this season with the expectation that Shanahan, known for his stubbornness about the player matching the scheme, would author another predictable offense. After four weeks, I have hope that 2016 won't be a repeat of 2015 and it's a good thing for fantasy owners.
Giving Shanahan and the core players in the offense a year to get familiar with the scheme and each other helps. So do Shanahan's tweaks with personnel additions, usage, and play calling:
- Shanahan has figured out the best way to use the tandem of Tevin Coleman (receiver, outside runner, and specific short-yardage plays) and Devonta Freeman (between the tackles, outside zone, and receiver between the hashes).
- He added three receivers—Aldrick Robinson, Mohamed Sanu, and Taylor Gabriel—who are good fits in this system and two of them have played for him at other stops.
- Atlanta added former Shanahan center Alex Mack as a stabilizing force for the offensive line.
- The Falcons drafted a complete tight end in Austin Hooper and Shanahan has drawn-up big plays that exploit Hooper's skills and add variety to the scheme as the rookie is still developing.
This weekend, Atlanta went up-tempo on the Panthers during the first drive and the result was 51 yards on three receptions to Julio Jones. Although Atlanta bullied cornerbacks Bené Benwikere and Daryl Worley all day, the variety of the play-calling and the new wrinkles added to successful plays from previous weeks gave the offense an edge on plays not directed to wide receivers.
This is a great play from a three-tight end set—a heavy run formation with one receiver. Good play design and execution usually makes defenses account for two possibilities while getting fooled by a third option they either didn't consider or the offense sold the first two possibilities well enough to make them forget.
Jacob Tamme is on the left and Hooper and blocking specialist Levine Toilolo are on the right. Hooper releases on a cross to the right flat that draws much of the defense's attention. Hooper, the inside tight end with Toilolo on the wing, releases inside the defensive end as if he's working towards a linebacker to execute a down block but he's running a deep cross to the left.
Because Devonta Freeman already had success running between the tackles, the defense honors the play fake and then reacts hard to Matt Ryans boot to the right. Tamme is an obvious target—too obvious—and the linebackers and safeties are so focused on the veteran tight end who caught the first touchdown of the day that they allow the rookie Hooper to work open behind them for a long, easy score.
Matt Ryan to Austin Hooper for a 42 yard touchdown in the 3rd quarter pic.twitter.com/eC2U2X15gx
— DBN Fanatics (@DBN_Fanatics) October 3, 2016
It's this combination of play design, play variety, and diversity of talented personnel that leads me to believe that Atlanta has the horses to remain a viable fantasy unit all year. The pressure points for this changing are injuries to Jones or Freeman.
Jones is the only receiving capable of drawing multiple defenders wherever he runs and Freeman is still a far better runner between the tackles than Coleman. If Atlanta can't run between the tackles and its ground game only lives on the boom-bust plays of Coleman the ballcarrier, the play-action game falls apart and that's where Shanahan is most creative.
Although Matt Schaub is not on Ryan's level, he's skilled enough to keep Atlanta's offense productive even if he's errors won't help the team remain competitive long-term. Coleman is gradually displaying better pad level on runs between the tackles and he's finding creases on outside zone plays that, while still big holes for the NFL, he wasn't finding as easily last year.
As long as those pressure points remain healthy, Coleman and Tamme remain flex plays with big-week upside and Sanu, Robinson, Hooper, and Gabriel offer bye-week appeal.
2. Pressing matters with Kelvin Benjamin
I was wrong about Carolina in Friday's "Best Of Week 4" feature. I expected a complete rebound from Kelvin Benjamin and Cam Newton this week and only earned a garbage-time score from the big receiver. I bought into that idea that Minnesota's defense sublimated the true firepower of Carolina's offense.
My uh-oh moment came within the first two minutes of the broadcast when former linebacker Chris Spielman—one of the most incisive commentators in the game—reminded me of something that I dinged Benjamin for as a collegian that I didn't consider this year: The receiver still has trouble defeating press coverage.
When I watched Benjamin at FSU, I noted how often the Seminoles placed Benjamin 3-5 yards behind the line of scrimmage. I asked a scout and former defensive back about this alignment and he told me it's usually a sign that the team is hiding the player from press coverage but there's also a possibility that it's a by-product of where FSU wanted Benjamin on the field and that mean the alignments I saw. I never saw Benjamin beat press in a convincing manner and it was one of the reasons I wasn't a big fan of him making an immediate impact as a rookie.
Benjamin's early success led me to forget about that detail until Spielman mentioned it at the tail end of a comment about the Panthers offense. It was one of his soft-spoken zingers that many people miss—the same way Gene Wilder as Wily Wonka gave a quiet warning to a spoiled child not to mess with a machine in the chocolate factory.
I thought about the skills that Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford have as press corners and I felt like Mike Teavee at that "too late moment." Benjamin is excellent at boxing out defenders with his size but manipulating them into position when they attack at the line of scrimmage, he's not. The same is true of DeVante Parker, who will never be a complete receiver until he develops these skills.
Benjamin scored from the slot by boxing out his competition. But if you want to see a receiver who has mastered releases against press-man, you'll have to look at his opponent.
Watch the replay 25 seconds into this video. The route assignment for Jones is a slant but the defender is playing tight and inside. If a receiver has any chance of getting separation inside against a cornerback in his position, he better have skills to defeat press coverage. Jones is now skilled enough at this part of the game that he can take an outside release on an inside-breaking route and earn massive separation.
Julio Jones big reception on 3rd down sets up a Matt Ryan touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson pic.twitter.com/HK0wS7vJhU
— DBN Fanatics (@DBN_Fanatics) October 3, 2016
There isn't a receiver in Carolina that I've seen who can consistently defeat press coverage other than Ted Ginn Jr and Ginn's hands aren't consistent. Although there are teams that won't always press Benjamin, it's a worrisome factor for fantasy owners. Unless Carolina continues to move Benjamin inside and hide him from press, which I would do if I had that decision-making power, it's worth noting.
The best case is a speedy recovery for Cam Newton, Jonathan Stewart, and the ground game so the play-action game has a meaningful impact on these receivers who operate better as basketball players in the lane than complete options at the line of scrimmage.
3. IN case you've been Stubborn about it: Russell Wilson is special
In 2012, he led Seattle on a 7-1 stretch run as a rookie. I was in Las Vegas with the Footballguys staff when Seattle faced RGIII mania in Washington during the Wildcard round. Sigmund Bloom gave me a questioning look at halftime, I have him the "no sweat" look as a response. Seattle's offense pulled away for the Victory.
The season culminated in the divisional round with a 28-30 defeat in Atlanta, but not without coming from behind 0-20 at the half. If you remember that game, the Seahawks didn't seem at all fazed about that deficit on the road. Its quarterback threw for 385 yards and ran 7 times for 60 yards, scoring 3 touchdowns in a 28-point second half.
The next year, that quarterback led Seattle to a 13-3 record, beat the Saints and 49ers in the playoffs, and demolished the heavily-favored Broncos for the Super Bowl Title. The Seahawks' starter was a top-five fantasy passer, a clutch performer, and a multi-dimensional threat.
In 2014, that Super Bowl-winning passer had the worst three quarters of his life at home against the Green Bay Packers in the Conference Championships but delivered one of the most clutch throws you'll ever see to seal the comeback victory—a throw he predicted before the play, and a victory he predicted on the sideline at his lowest moment. While Seattle's season ended at the one-yard line with an inexplicable play call and a combination of great defensive recognition and imperfect offensive execution, the fact that Russell Wilson was a play from winning consecutive Super Bowls in three seasons as an NFL quarterback was unheard of.
Last year, the Carolina Panthers "survived" Wilson and the Seahawks in the divisional round after jumping to a 31-0 lead, only to watch helplessly as Wilson and the Seahawks willed their way within 7 points. Most Carolina fans I know felt like Wilson was battling the clock in the second half more than the Panthers defense.
Wilson is a great young quarterback. Long-time NFL analyst Greg Cosell may have spent the first 2-3 years rationalizing what Seattle does to make its quarterback productive in ways that other teams might not do with those big-bodied pocket passers that Cosell fetishizes about every year—and sometimes to a fault—but there are few players in the history of the game who can do what Wilson does. And what Wilson does is combine great improvisational thinking, elusiveness, arm strength,top-notch understanding of his offense, and rare mental and physical toughness into elite play.
Wilson worked around the clock to rehab his MCL sprain so he could face a formidable Jets defensive front. The Seattle quarterback wasn't mobile enough to buy time and earn yards as a runner, but he was in good enough shape to avoid getting hit and either find a check-down or end the play with minimal downside. He also did what I always saw him do well at North Carolina State and Wisconsin, stand in the pocket when necessary and deliver the strike.
Wilson shredded the Jets defense this weekend with a young offensive line that's still learning, a deep threat (Tyler Lockett) with a torn PCL, and a growing relationship with an offensive weapon returning from a career-threatening injury that requires more trust than most quarterbacks ever feel comfortable giving.
🚨 ONE-HAND GRAB ALERT! 🚨
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2016
This is just so beautiful... @thejimmygraham. #WeAre12 #SEAvsNYJ https://t.co/rW2Lg3rcvv
There's also this needle-threader on the move to a receiver with 70 hours of experience with the organization...
Perfect. Throw.@DangeRussWilson threads the needle to... @CJSPILLER! 🎯🎯🎯 #SEAvsNYJ https://t.co/Q2OKj2ZSRj
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2016
With Atlanta, Arizona, and New Orleans next, this offense is dangerous and worth your investment. I already mentioned it last week with the new triplets of Christine Michael, Jimmy Graham, and Doug Baldwin, but it all starts with Russell Wilson. He was one of the few quarterbacks I wanted to consider as an early pick in fantasy drafts and despite the fact he's the No.19 QB after four weeks, the offensive line looks markedly better than it did to start the season and Graham's on-field emergence has been two weeks in the making and two weeks in the box score.
Wilson has a history of slow starts and strong stretch runs during the season. If there's a player to buy low on, Wilson is a strong candidate.
4. Brandon Marshall won the battle, Richard Sherman won the war
The quarterback facing Russell Wilson on Sunday is the butt of fantastic Internet jokes after throwing six interceptions against the Chiefs...
Raise your hand if you caught a Ryan Fitzpatrick interception today #ChiefsKingdom #chiefs pic.twitter.com/GKCcNVbVtn
— Danny Woods (@dcwoods89) September 25, 2016
...and two against Richard Sherman.
Fitzpatrick decides to test Richard Sherman. Again.
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2016
Fitzpatrick gets picked off by Richard Sherman. Again. https://t.co/vAKuKWPxma
While Fitzpatrick earned much of the derision he's received, an important point to remember is the nature of the Jets receiving corps. Brandon Marshall is slow for a primary receiver. He wins in tight quarters and for the past two weeks the Jets have played two cornerbacks that do an excellent job of playing the ball.
Fitzpatrick and Marshall combined for 89 yards on 4 catches and a touchdown against Sherman this weekend and doing so on the type of routes that Sherman picked off late. Marshall is defending Fitzpatrick in the media because he understands that this is the downside of his game as a receiver.
If the Jets don't vary the steady diet of fade routes, a good cornerback with ball-hawking skills will eventually run the route before the receiver does and win the ball. It's what happened and I'd be surprised if the Jets bench Fitzpatrick.
As a fantasy owner, you should only care about the this tandem winning battles and winning just enough wars so it can continue to fight.
5. We have a heartbeat in Cleveland
The conventional thought for the past two weeks is to be cautious about Terrelle Pryor's emergence and sell high on Isaiah Crowell. After watching Cleveland the past three weeks, I disagree. It's faint, but there's a heartbeat with this team—especially the offense. It's a two-chambered heart consisting of Pryor and Crowell and it's powered by a good offensive line.
Josh Norman drew Pryor for most of the game. I don't recall a snap when Pryor didn't face him. What we witnessed was a clinic from a skilled student-teacher at the wide receiver position against one of the most celebrated cornerbacks in the league:
Although its wasn't perfect, Pryor showed he could use his hands, win at the top of the route, and it all appeared natural. His strength with his hands shouldn't be underestimated. The way he shoved Norman around was impressive.
This move below was so well-done, Norman had to commit a penalty to avoid getting burned:
Pryor avoided Norman's punch with good technique and then used his hands to work past the corner effortlessly. Although Pryor earned most of his production during the first half, it's notable that Washington gave Norman help with a safety during the second half so the corner could play aggressively on underneath routes without concern of getting burned.
Norman won the war because he made a game-sealing interception against Pryor, but he only did it with reinforcements. There's a likelihood that Pryor earns double coverage in the coming weeks. If he does, it will open up the ground game and it will make life easier for Duke Johnson Jr, Gary Barnidge, and eventually Corey Coleman.
That ground game is Isaiah Crowell's. It's a one-man show with a sidekick named Duke Johnson Jr. It may change as defenses change its approach, but what he did against Washington is consistent with what I've seen against better defenses.
Cleveland loves to run power with Crowell's confidence and physicality in the crease. He's quick, shifty, and he routinely bounces off the first hit—even when defenders hit him low.
This is what Hue Jackson has been referring to all summer when he talks about Crowell's talent. The Browns know that they need to get Crowell going early and continue going to him late in the game where he can wear down a defense.
Cleveland was a head in this game after enacting this plan. Crowell had four runs of at least 10 yards and the Browns were up 20-17 in the fourth quarter. Typical Browns dysfunction set in.
Cleveland gave Crowell a breather and Malcolm Johnson turned it over on a carry as he entered the red zone. Washington re-captured the lead on the resulting drive. The Browns gave Crowell another breather during the next drive and Duke Johnson Jr authored a controversial fumble in Washington territory.
Washington 31 Cleveland 17.
Even so, I would not sell high on either player. Even if the Patriots shellac them to oblivion, the quarterback situation should only get better long-term. Unless the offensive line gets hit by a bus, stay the course.
6. paxton Lynch is better for Denver fantasy shares right now (If...)
He can remember the long jargon of the play calls. Ask Cecil Lammey about Lynch and it's the only reason he had that the rookie wasn't the starter heading into this weekend. The other obvious one is that the Broncos are winning and why mess with what's working.
Trevor Siemian temporarily stopped working when he sprained the A/C Joint of his left shoulder when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sacked him for the fourth time in the first half. Although available to return, Denver was ahead 14-7 and Lynch extended that lead with a performance that rendered it unnecessary.
Although it's the same offense, the play choices are friendlier for fantasy owners when Lynch is on the field. When the two quarterbacks aren't throwing deep, the differences are significant. Siemian operates a quick game that features short routes within 10-12 yards of the line of scrimmage and often shorter. Lynch threw a lot more intermediate routes that translate into explosive plays as defined by completions of at least 16 yards.
C.J. Anderson scored on a goal line play with Siemian under center but the Bucs' defense was stout early on—even after defensive tackle Gerald McCoy exited with a calf injury. After Lynch entered the game and completed routes of 14, 18, and 16 yards, Anderson earned an opening for a 9-yard gain—his longest of the day at that point.
Most of Anderson and Booker's quality gains came on the heels of completions of this distance. These throws also came on three and five-step drops.
Lynch's arm strength and accuracy not only stretches the field vertically, which helps the ground game and the big-play components of receivers Emmanuel Sanders and DeMaryius Thomas, but also stretches the field horizontally. Lynch can make deeper throws from the opposite hash off short drops that keeps the defense from compressing one area of the field and forces more honest alignments.
I like what Trevor Siemian has done for Denver but if Lynch doesn't suffer a major adjustment phase, I'd rather have the rookie throwing to these big-play weapons and loosening up the defense for C.J. Anderson. I won't be surprised if Denver feels the same.
7. Fresh Fish
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up:
Catch Of The Day: Red-Striped Panther Fish
I love this photo commemorating Julio Jones' 300-yard day from the NFL's social media team.
When you drop 300 yards, we’ll put a frame on it. 😎#CARvsATL pic.twitter.com/pd7yJkzklm
— NFL (@NFL) October 2, 2016
But it's missing one thing: Bené Benwikere in a beret holding a pallette in one arm and a paint brush in the other. Or, maybe Benwikere was the paint Jones was the brush, and Matt Ryan was the hand that spread the Panthers cornerback all over the canvas of the Georgia Dome. Yep, much better to imagine Benwikere's play as lifeless tube of paint.
Give Ryan the beret and the palette as long as you put a television in the background of the photo with Kyle Shanahan in an afro wig doing his best Bob Ross impression. Whatever the image should look like, Benwikere couldn't hang with Jones or Aldrick Robinson on Sunday, giving up two of Matt Ryan's three touchdowns and more yards than I walk on any given Sunday in October.
The Rest Of This Weekend's Catch
- Tahir Whitehead and the Lions LBs: I know that Darryl Johnston said Whitehead has been playing well, but I have to believe the former fullback has a silent qualifying remark that he hasn't uttered on air because when I've seen Whitehead, I've seen a player who can't cover and gets way too aggressive as a run-stopper. He gave up a 17-yard play to Zach Miller to begin the day and his teammates weren't better. Kyle Van Noy took poor angles and abandoned gap responsibilities on some notable runs from Jordan Howard and Antoine Williams let Miller beat him for a touchdown. Whitehead also failed to turn to the ball on a wheel route and drew a defensive interference call while covering Jordan Howard, putting Chicago in the red zone. The Lions linebackers are fresh fish for opposing backs and tight ends.
- Cleveland run defense: Matt Jones and Chris Thompson almost looked as good as Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. While I like what cornerback Jamar Taylor is bringing to the pass offense opposite Joe Haden and there's a semblance of a pass rush, the Browns are goodies for opposing run games.
- The right side of the Raiders defensive front: Terrance West will be a popular name from inquiring fantasy owners this week. West has the talent to continue as the Ravens starter but from what I saw, I'm leaning towards his game as a case where the Ravens' best player—Marshall Yanda—met the weakest side of of the Raiders defense. West's best carry in the first half was a 20-yard run to that side and before that he had 4 carries for 5 yards. All of his runs over five yards came against the right side of the Oakland front.
- Atlanta LBs: Sean Weatherspoon tore his Achilles this weekend. The Falcons were already inexperienced and tackling poorly before its lone veteran went down. Running backs and tight ends should be feasting on yardbird for weeks to come.
- San Francisco LBs: Navorro Bowman suffered an Achilles tear and while Ezekiel Elliott looked good beforehand, Dallas rolled after Bowman wasn't around to captain a more aggressive attack that kept Dak Prescott hemmed in and the game close. This is a disastrous injury for the 49ers.
8. Michael Crabtree
It's routes like this that makes Crabtree the first name on the lips of almost every incoming rookie receiver I've spoken with during the past 3-4 years when I ask about route runners they study.
Crabtree is a smart, sure-handed, technically-savvy, and acrobatic player who makes tough plays against contact. Pairing him with Colin Kaepernick was like paring a jazz drummer with a grunge guitarist. The drummer could hang, but you weren't seeing the best of him.
Crabtree's three-touchdown performance is a bonus for those who listened to my advocacy of him as a consistent fantasy WR2. He's the type of player I'd target in package deals because he's not a usually an exciting option with games like this.
9. 49ers Defense had Cowboys on the Ropes and let up
San Francisco had the formula for beating Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. The offense jumped to an early 14-0 lead and the defense presented the rookie quarterback with Double A-Gap pressure looks before the snap (For those of you not savvy to what that means, the A Gaps are the spaces between the center and the guards).
The location and potential immediacy of this pressure is difficult for veteran quarterbacks to handle. Not all defenses can do it well because it requires smart linebackers that can read the pocket, drop and cover, and rush the passer. Many inside linebackers only have two of these three skills.
Navorro Bowman is an exceptional player in this regard. San Francisco successfully confused Dak Prescott with these looks by varying what it did with them.
Here's a snapo where both linebackers show pressure but don't blitz. They're waiting to see which path Ezekiel Elliott takes. Based on Elliott's assignment as a blocker or receiver, one covers and the other blitzes. It worked to perfection on this third down in the first half.
Here's another where San Francisco, up 14-0 shows the same Double A-Gap look but also has defensive backs crowding the right side of the Dallas line. The linebackers drop and take away Prescott's binky Cole Beasley, and the edge pressure forces the rookie to eat the ball.
Unfortunately for the 49ers, this play didn't count. The safety Jaquiski Tartt was penalized for a late hit after the whistle and it put Dallas in 49ers territory. Up 14-0 before this third down play, San Francisco had the Cowboys on the ropes.
After this play, San Francisco played a passive defense, stopped blitzing or crowding the box, and Ezekiel Elliott ripped off two strong runs that got the Cowboys into the red zone. Prescott delivered a fine back-shoulder throw to Terrence Williams for the touchdown.
The 49ers had the right plan but didn't finish the Cowboys when they had them. Cincinnati and Green Bay have the potential to do the same things to the Cowboys in Weeks 5-6. After that, it might not happen again until Dallas faces Minnesota in Week 13. By then, Tony Romo should be back.
10. The whiplash effect of holding Jay ajayi
Watching the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night got me thinking about the recent history of this team. The quarterback's former head coach and offensive mind drafted him. The next head coached micromanaged everything and didn't expand the passer's decision-making power.
Meanwhile, the locker room was a mess thanks an offensive line that acted like a fraternity that needed it's charter revoked. The offensive scheme also lacked a clear way of communicating route depths.
It meant that a wide receiver or tight end assigned to run an out or dig or comeback had to intuit the actual depth of that route in a way that most offenses don't require. A quarterback coach with clients who played for the Dolphins shared this with me last year.
Enter Adam Gase, a new head coach known for his offensive mind and skill to work with quarterbacks. The expectation is for him to turn things around fast.
I would define "fast" as a year or two but I have realistic expectations. The conventional expectation is 2-3 games. Consider the depth of the mess and the players who were in it or the tail end of it before Gase entered the equation and I think it's looney to expect quick results.
Jay Ajayi was one of those players entering the tail end of the fray and I think his behavior is a reflection of the existing team culture before Gase arrived. It's why I think Gase brought Arian Foster to the team and later disciplined Ajayi the way he did.
It's also why I think Byron Maxwell got benched after Terrelle Pryor beat him two games ago. Gase wants to set firm boundaries that I don't think existed in Miami for some time and he's forced to use harsher discipline to change the culture.
I saw hope for Ajayi with his play Thursday night. The offensive line may not consistently cooperate but I saw a running back who looked sharper than I had seen earlier this year.
The difficult part is figuring out if Ajayi is worth an investment. I added him this week in a league where an owner dropped him but I have a feeling that starting him will be like Charlie Brown trying to kick the ball with Lucy as the holder. I also have the feeling that when I refrain, he's going to have good days.
If you are a dynasty owner, Dolphins players are worth waiting a year on. If you're a re-draft owner, it's Jarvis Landry and a bunch of dice rolls.
