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Defensive Team by Committee 2017

Finding the perfect pair of fantasy defenses to select late in your draft.

For fifteen straight years, Footballguys has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) strategy to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, making it difficult to predict which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will excel. And, at least in theory, the teams available at the ends of your drafts should provide less rewards. So how do you get great production out of the position while saving your most important draft picks? We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft whose combined schedule features predominantly weak offenses. By starting your defense based on matchups, your D/ST will generally face a weak offense, meaning your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points.

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - 2 x (Interceptions thrown + Fumbles Lost). While most leagues award significant points for sacks, we don't project offensive sacks allowed data. But don’t worry: we’ll keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC. Below shows how many fantasy points above or below average you should expect each offense to be.  When facing the Patriots or Falcons, your fantasy defense will probably score about 4 less points than average, while facing the Jets, Rams, or 49ers should be a 3.5-point boon to your fantasy defense:


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