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After five weeks of the 2016 season, the Atlanta Falcons are one of the big surprises. The Falcons stand at 4-1 and just ended the unbeaten streak of the reigning champion Denver Broncos with a scintilating offensive performance. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman were the stars of that game but Matt Ryan has received most of the plaudits. Ryan struggled to function in Kyle Shanahan's offense last year, he repeatedly threw interceptions despite not being under pressure and despite having receivers open downfield.
So far this season he has thrown just two interceptions while leading the league in yards with 1,740 (the next best passer only has 1,503) and leading the league in passer rating for quarterbacks who have attempted at least 100 throws.
Coming off back-to-back convincing victories against teams who were/are supposed to compete for the playoffs this year, Ryan's stock has never been higher. He only threw for one touchdown and 267 yards against the Broncos while completing 53.6 percent of his passes, but the fact that his performance came against that defense and he averaged 9.5 yards per attempt after throwing for four touchdowns and more than 500 yards the previous week will have fantasy owners salivating at his potential. Shanahan's offense sets its quarterback up for success with simpler throws off of play action and the Falcons' schedule is relatively soft. It's easy to argue that Ryan can sustain this production for the full season.
Easy until you watch him that is. Ryan's numbers the past two weeks have flattered his performances. He has escaped interceptions on il-advised throws three times while missing open receivers for big plays because of poor accuracy. The only consistent positive has been his ability to function against pressure. In short, if you can sell Ryan high right now, you should do it.
Ryan's only interception against the Panthers was returned for a touchdown. He made a bad decision on a screen pass from his own endzone and threw the ball directly to a linebacker in the passing lane. With the Falcons leading by a touchdown late in the second quarter, Ryan almost threw another game-changing interception deep in his own territory. He panicked and forced a ball towards Julio Jones when his initial read wasn't there. Luke Kuechly didn't undercut the ball so much as he was already in position waiting for it. Even if Kuechly hadn't been there, Jones would have been catching an arriving defensive back with the ball.
Kuechly tipping the ball into the air instead of catching it did two things: It prevented him from potentially running back a touchdown or setting his offense up deep in Falcons territory. It also allowed Jones to catch the ball away from the defensive back before he forced his way downfield for an 18-yard gain.
Jones had 300 yards receiving in this game. He was set up perfectly by Shanahan's play calling against a bad gameplan from his opponent. The Panthers asked too much of their cornerbacks in space by playing so much Cover-3. Jones could have had even more yards in the game but Ryan's accuracy cost him another big play. He covered for his quarterback's inaccuracy on another long reception where better coverage could have resulted in an interception. Against the Broncos, Jones had two early targets that he couldn't bail Ryan out on.
This isn't an easy play, but it is a play that symbolizes how Ryan has played lately. He does brilliantly to evade the immediate pressure off his right side and keeps his eyes up to read the coverage downfield. Jones is being bracketed by defenders but has created a pocket of space for his quarterback to lead him into. Ryan just misses the throw as Jones can't get his hands to the ball with a diving effort. Had Ryan hit his receiver in stride he would have caught the ball 38 yards past the line of scrimmage with an opportunity to keep running.
Two plays later, Jones created a hueg pocket for Ryan to hit down the right sideline when he beat aggressive coverage after motioning across the formation. If the previous throw was forgiveable, this one definitely wasn't. Ryan didn't need to adjust or move in the pocket, he could plant his feet and deliver the ball to his receiver 24 yards downfield. This time Ryan's miss is so wild that Jones doesn't even entertain the ideda of diving for it. He watches hopelessly as it sails towards the sideline.
These are two plays but they are two plays that reflect Ryan's consistent ball placement issues over the past 12 months or so. His arm strength was never great but now that he is 31 years of age it is beginning to fade. Shanahan will continue to scheme open receivers for shot plays downfield and his arm strength is still good enough that he can make enough of those throws to be effective, but it's hard to imagine him sustaining his current pace over the course of 16 games.
In between those two deep misses to Jones, Ryan had one of his two interceptable passes from this game.
Before the play began Ryan motioned a tight end into an in-line position from out wide. That tight end became the eighth member of pass protection to account for the Broncos pass rush. An eight-man protection is a rare sight. It's rare because it's extremely difficult to adjust unless the defense calls a heavy blitz. With eight in protection, Ryan only has two options to throw to downfield. The Broncos send eight defenders after the quarterback, two are delayed as they respond to what the running back and tight end do.
Even with the Broncos blitzing, Chris Harris is able to blanket Justin Hardy on the outside. Hardy runs an out route 10 yards downfield and Ryan releases the ball before pressure arrives. Had he seen the coverage, he would have thrown the ball high over his receiver's head or dropped to the ground to take a sack. The ball goes straight to Harris who lets it slip through his hands instead of breaking on it in a position to potentially run it back for six points.
Talibe let the ball slip through his hands midway through the first quarter when the Falcons were driving in Broncos territory.
Ryan and Jones were able to pick apart the Panthers' Cover-3 defense the previous week with in breaking routes after play fakes. That is exactly what Ryan attempts to do on this play but he doesn't realize that the Broncos secondary is prepared for it. The Broncos show Cover-3 but their cornerbacks on the outside are more aggressive in how they track the receivers out of their stems. Talibe is essentially playing off-man coverage as he stays square to Mohamed Sanu and breaks on the route ahead of the receiver.
Although there was pressure coming, Ryan should have recognized that Talib was sitting on the route as soon as he turned around from the play fake. He didn't have to stare down Sanu and force the ball to a spot where his receiver had no chance of catching it. If he was married to the idea of throwing to Sanu, he needed to adjust and throw it to his other shoulder in the hopes of turning him away from Talib's aggressive break on the ball.
With the strength of the Falcons running game and Ryan's inconsistent play, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Falcons became more run-heavy as the season wore on. Devonta Freeman is on pace for fewer than 250 carries. His level of play suggests that he should be approaching and even eclipsing 300 despite concerns about his size. Tevin Coleman is pitching in with 9.2 carries per game, on pace for fewer than 150 carries. Between Coleman and Freeman the Falcons have strong reasons to focus more on running the ball even while both players can be very effective receivers too.
Ryan should remain a viable QB1 over the course of the season. One of the big problems is his most favorable matchup of the year, a home game against the New Orleans Saints defense, comes in Week 17. The only other great matchups he has come against the San Diego Chargers at home in two weeks and against the San Francisco 49ers at home in Week 15. He will be a QB1 but a low-tier QB1 rather than a must start every week.
A trip to Seattle to face the Seahawks coming off a bye is unlikely to help his trade value.
