On Saturday night, in the second quarter of the game against the Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons left tackle Sam Baker was carted off the field. Initial reports had the injury as being a knee hyper-extension. However, multiple reports have surfaced on Sunday morning, stating that Baker has suffered a torn patella tendon, and will miss the entire 2014 season.
While usually this would be considered terrible news, to have a starting left tackle lost for the season, the Falcons’ situation is more nuanced.
The Falcons are currently rated twenty-sixth in the FBG offensive line ratings, which was a plus-five improvement from where they were last season. In other words they were already a below average group. Even last night, Baker had serious trouble containing Jadeveon Clowney. While this play was actually more the fault of the guard than the tackle, this whole sequence is an illustration of why this line is ranked so low currently.
On his best day, Baker could be counted upon for solid play. He was graded as a B “good starter” in the rankings but that was probably overly generous. Baker has not had many good days as of late. The idea of this finesse blocker from USC was always an attractive one to the team, Sam Baker in reality was a part of the problem, and has been for years.
Back in the day, draft profiles pointed out Baker’s below average arm length as a point of possible concern and he has been exploited by many pass-rushers over the seasons. Besides his failings in pass protection, Baker has lacked an ability to stay healthy. Last season, Baker tried to fight off injuries, but only started four games before landing on injured reserve in week ten of the regular season. Baker is by any measure an NFL player in decline.
The team obviously were aware of all this when they drafted tackle Jake Matthews in the top ten of this year’s NFL draft. Matthews has experience at both right and left tackle, and the plan was for him to work at right tackle and eventually take over for Baker. Due to Baker’s contract, that transition was likely planned for after this season.
Even though Matthews has been playing at right tackle this preseason, he could easily swap back to left side, which is where he played all of last year at Texas A&M. This appears to be the team’s first plan of action.
Matthews was one of the most technically sound prospects to emerge from the college ranks in recent years. It’s not surprising that he’s so versatile and seasoned, as he comes from a long established family of players in the league. When your father is a Hall of Fame offensive lineman, you learn a few tricks along the way.
Matthews is far from a perfect product and he has had some up-and-down performances this preseason, against quality opposition such as J.J. Watt and Cameron Wake. This is not unexpected from a rookie, even the son of a legend.
Lamar Holmes played several games for Sam Baker last season and he was the player who entered the game when Baker was initially injured. However the team was reportedly not impressed with his performance or with his conditioning in the offseason. Holmes and Ryan Schrader are likely to compete to replace Matthews at right tackle. As fans of HBO's Hard Knocks will attest, Schraeder is a gutsy and improving player. Schraeder is a second year player, a former undrafted free agent out of Valdosta State. The team would like Schraeder to distinguish himself and keep Holmes as a swing option.
In other long shot options, Terren Jones is a physical talent but incredibly raw, while Gabe Carimi has been nicked up with an ankle injury and has been working more at guard. Neither is likely to get real snaps out of this situation.
If Matthews doesn’t look comfortable at left tackle, or the team is not fond of the right tackle possibilities to step up, the team could sign veteran Bryant McKinnie, who is still a free agent. Last with the Dolphins, McKinnie is not a spring chicken, this would be a stop gap move, not a plan for the future. Still, this could be a safer move, as some scouts believed Matthews’ film was actually better at right tackle as a junior than at left tackle as a senior.
As for the Falcons' offensive line ranking, removing Baker from the lineup and adding Holmes or Schraeder for Matthews does drop them a few spots to twenty-ninth overall. Signing McKinnie would keep them level or perhaps raise them a few spots to twenty-three, depending on how motivated McKinnie is to play football.
If we are asking the question, how does Sam Baker's injury affect the stock of, let's say, Roddy White? The answer is not much either way. Slightly better if they find a replacement, slightly worse if they don't. The Falcons are not a team where the production is built around the offensive line, at least not currently. Over the years, many productive fantasy players have come from unstable offensive line situations. To put it another way, even before the injury, you weren't drafting Roddy White for the stellar line play of Sam Baker.
However, in the long-term, letting Matthews develop at left tackle is probably the more prudent path to team improvement, rather than signing McKinnie. If Matthews lives up to draft status he will be a far better left tackle than Sam Baker ever was for the Falcons. And if Ryan Schraeder can get on the field in front of Lamar Holmes, the team might be able to build around some young bookends for seasons to come.