It's been a rough season for Russell Wilson.
The Seattle Seahawks quarterback has dealt with a knee injury, an ankle injury and a shoulder injury. Each of those injuries has overlapped with one of the others to the point that Wilson has largely been rendered ineffective. In seven games prior to Monday night, Wilson had just one 300-yard game and thrown for just five total touchdowns. His production running the ball has been non-existent as his season high in rushing yards came in Week 1, when he had 16 yards on four carries against the Miami Dolphins. On Monday night, Wilson completed 20 of 26 passes for 282 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and he ran for a touchdown on a designed play near the goalline.
After nine weeks, Wilson ranks 18th in the league amongst quarterbacks. That's a far cry from where he was expected to be. According to My Fantasy League, Wilson's average draft position in the offseason made him the fourth-ranked quarterback. His explosion as a passer over the second half of last season combined with his added value in the running game should have made him one of the most productive players in the NFL this year.
Like with Andrew Luck last year, it's safe to assume that Wilson is struggling because of his health. For one, he has a track record of performing at a much higher level than this for an extended period of time. More importantly though, he is struggling in specific ways that suggest it is a health issue rather than just a general slump that players can fall into.
For most of this season, Wilson's injuries have not only completely taken away his run threat, but they've also affected how he has thrown the ball. His feet haven't been fast or decisive when throwing the ball. Without his feet planted beneath him his balance has been off and his deep passes have floated over the heads of receivers. In previous years Wilson made some of the most impressive deep throws each year as his control and arm strength allowed him to lay the ball out perfectly for his receivers to run under. Wilson was also one of the few quarterbacks who could attack tight coverage downfield because of his precision and arm talent.
The obvious tell that Wilson is regaining his health would be a big day running the ball. Once that happens, everyone will be able to see that the young quarterback is rounding into form for the home stretch of the season. You don't need to wait until that happens though. Monday night's performance was the sign that Wilson is regaining his health.
It wasn't just that Wilson was productive, it's how he was productive. He consistently made difficult plays while showing off the same poise and precision that he has built his career on.
Against the New Orleans Saints in Week 8, the Seahawks attempted one pass of more than 20 yards. Pete Carroll said before Monday's game that that would change. Carroll specifically said that is not the way they want to play football. Of course, for the Seahawks to push the ball downfield they need their quarterback to be able to push the ball downfield. On their second drive of the game, still early in the first quarter, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell called an aggressive play action with a seven-man pass protection. This gave Wilson some time in the pocket and his receivers an opportunity to run vertically downfield.
In the above gif, we can see Wilson deliver a perfect pass to Doug Baldwin. This angle tells us that the ball travels at least 45 yards in the air. It doesn't show us what Wilson saw or how he set his feet.
The endzone angle replay shows us how Wilson's plants his feet aggressively in the ground and steps into his throw. You can also see him turn away from the hit as it arrives but that's not a sign of him flinching or not trusting his feet. Wilson turns after he has released the ball and his front foot moves because the lineman who is pushed back into him steps on his foot. A quarterback who is still concerned about his lower body isn't as aggressive in this situation. He shortens his front foot or lightly touches the ground instead of planting hard.
Wilson absorbs a big hit and probably has a sore foot, but he delivers the ball where it needs to go. He makes the play that needs to be made.
Including last night's game, Wilson has 22 completions of 20 or more yards so far this season. He is on pace for 44 for the full season. That would be the lowest amount since his rookie season when he only threw 393 passes. Just last year he threw 60 passes that gained 20 or more yards and even then he only attempted 483 passes. Wilson is on pace for 534 passes this season. If this game was anything to go by, Wilson will finish this season closer to 600 than 500. The Seahawks ran the ball nine times with non-Wilson players in Week 9.
Around this time last year, Wilson began the most productive stretch of his career. During that stretch he proved that he could carry an offense but he did that while being able to run the ball as well as pass the ball. Running the ball is important for the design of the Seahawks offense, not just for Wilson's production as an individual. It's unlikely that he suddenly starts rushing for 50+ yards per game so there will be a greater focus on Wilson's ability to deliver the ball this year.
His touchdown run against the Buffalo Bills was run that the majority of NFL quarterbacks could make. It was a deception-based play where the backside defenders completely ignored Wilson as he escaped into the opposite flat. There was nothing easy about his two touchdown throws though.
Jimmy Graham makes a spectacular one-handed catch for this touchdown. Wilson doesn't set his feet as he releases the ball but he doesn't need to because of the depth and type of throw that he is making. He has the arm strength and trajectory control to make this throw. His footwork was still important though. Even when Wilson's feet have been fully healthy in the past he hasn't been the most adept at moving in the pocket to mitigate pressure. He has typically moved his feet to run out of the pocket, often incorporating a spin move that results in more sacks than it does spectacular plays.
On this play we can see Wilson's confidence in his feet as he adjusts to the pressure coming up the middle. He is able to sidestep the arriving defender while maintaining his balance and keeping his shoulders square to where he wants to throw the ball.
The precision of the pass can never be shown off without that adjustment.
Wilson has always had a great ability to throw receivers open. He is an anticipation passer who understands coverages and how to attack them with specific routes. His second touchdown was a reminder of what the Seahawks have been missing this season. With Jimmy Graham, you only need to put the ball in a spot for him to go and win it. Good timing and accuracy will allow Graham to thrive because his skill set makes him impossible to cover. In the above gif you can see Graham run down the seam before Wilson fits the ball past the linebacker covering him. Importantly, Wilson's timing meant that the deep safety couldn't work his way across the field.
The confidence in this play from Wilson is comforting. He didn't just make the throw, he made the throw with perfect timing and clearly understood where to go with the ball as soon as he caught the snap. That confidence emanates from not having to think about his feet. It's a matter of planting and delivering instead of acting with hesitation and floating the ball over its intended target.
Although these were Wilson's big-play throws, they weren't aberations. Throughout the whole game the quarterback delivered the ball decisively and with velocity. He would have thrown for more than 300 yards and potentially another two touchdowns if his recievers hadn't been interfered with on a couple of occasions. The Bills defense obviously hasn't been where you typically expect a Rex Ryan defense to be either, but that's not really relevant for a quarterback who has struggled against everyone this year. It's not relevant for a quarterback who was previously beating himself.
Over his final eight games of last season, Wilson threw for 2,146 yards, 25 touchdowns and two interceptions. We can't rationally expect him to do that again this year, we can't even expect him to come close to that. He should return to being a top-12 option at his position each week though. We should have more confidence starting Wilson now. If you acquired him at a discount earlier this year, the rewards to your patience should start in Week 10 against the New England Patriots.
If they don't, games against the lowly Philaldelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers should help.
