Projections for Kick and Punt Returners

Photo: Frank Victores, USA Today Sports

As fantasy football evolves, many participants look to spice up their league and make it more challenging. An increasingly common method is to incorporate return yardage, either for individual players or as a Team Return position. When a player like running back David Wilson accumulates over 1500 return yards in a single season, even a modest scoring system can provide a significant boost to a player’s ranking. Incorporating projections for return yards into decision making can provide a fantasy owner with a distinct advantage over the competition.

The following punt and kickoff return projections are an ongoing collaboration with Adam Harstad to review and project each NFL team's unique situation. The number of returns expected is first projected by team and then distributed amongst the club's likely returners. In situations where a primary return job is undecided, that distribution is built upon the odds we give each player of becoming the primary returner and of the amount of the split we believe he will get if it is a shared duty.

To project actual return yards, the player's past yards per return are then incorporated. These averages are first regressed towards the league average an amount appropriate for the predictive quality such past averages generally hold. The final return yards are then used to project the likelihood of a touchdown being scored by incorporating tiered historical averages that factor in individual returner quality.

These projections are incorporated for individual players in Draft Dominator as well as the Magazine Draft Kit and Draft GM apps for mobile devices.  Each app's scoring setup contains a spot you can enter your return yardage scoring, after which the player's fantasy points will automatically include points from return yards and touchdowns.

RECENT MAJOR Updates

The Rams have a new depth chart that shows Tavon Austin as the primary punt returner with Austin Pettis as his backup. On kickoffs, Benny Cunningham is the kick returner with Tavon Austin as the backup.

The Packers depth chart shows Jeremy Ross as both the punt and kick returner. We still believe Cobb will get some returns, but it is a definite downgrade.

Fozzy Whittaker is replacing Richard Goodman in San Diego on kickoff returns.

Emmanuel Sanders was dropped from the Steelers kick return depth chart, with LaRod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones set to replace him.

Quintin Demps and Knile Davis are likely taking over kick returns in Kansas City.

De'Andre Presley was cut by Miami. The team signed Bryan McCann who will like be the backup for both types of returns.

Leon Washington was released by the Patriots. It is not clear yet who will handle kickoffs, though Josh Boyce and LeGarrette Blount might get the job based on preseason. Julian Edelman could also see returns there.

The Jaguars released Jordan Shipley. Ace Sanders takes over at punt returner with Will Blackmon his backup.

The Chiefs released Devon Wylie. Knile Davis is a good bet to be the backup at both kick and punt returner.

Tiquan Underwood was released by Tampa Bay, as was Jordan Norwood who had just recently been signed.

Kerwynn Williams was waived by the Colts.

Marc Mariani of the Titans was placed on Injured Reserve, which should give the bulk of the return duties to Darius Reynaud. It is not yet clear who the backup will be, though Michael Preston is one possibility.

Brad Smith of the Bills was placed on Injured Reserve with a rib injury. Marquise Goodwin and T.J. Graham will likely split the return duties. Leodis McKelvin is always a possibility, though might just be kept on punt returns.

The Ravens released Tandon Doss and Bobby Rainey, which leaves Asa Jackson as the backup punt returner. Jackson has an eight game suspension for Adderall use, leaving Jacoby Jones even more of the punt returns.

Chris Thompson of the Redskins had a 69-yard punt return touchdown in the team's final game as he competes for the punt return job that was left vacant by the season-ending injury to Richard Crawford.

Giants running back Andre Brown breaking his leg may cut into or even eliminate kick returns for David Wilson. The team was already speaking of picking and choosing when to use Wilson in the return game. Now that Wilson's work load as the primary running back should increase, the team may be even more reluctant to subject him to the extra injury risk

LaMichael James has a sprained MCL that will keep him out a few weeks. Kyle Williams is likely to fill in on punt returns, while Quinton Patton may see more kick returns until James returns.

The Bucaneers signed Jordan Norwood and audtioned him in the return game.

Joe Adams was waived by the Panthers.

Receiver Jermaine Kearse has been moved to the top of the Seahawks depth chart at kick returner. William Blackmon was released.

Joe McKnight was released by the Jets. Clyde Gates and Kyle Wilson are likely to take over the kick return duties.

Michael Smith was placed on Injured Reserve by Tampa Bay. Branden Smith is likely to take over in his place.

Josh Cribbs is not showing the burst he used to have and has been released.

The Redskins lost Richard Crawford for the season with a torn LCL. Rookie Chris Thompson took over for him in the game, though it remains to be seen whether the regular season job will fall to Thompson, Santana Moss, or some other rookie like Nick Williams or Skye Dawson.

2013 PLAYER Kick and Punt Return Projections

These are also available in the offensive stat projections under the position "Ret". 

Last update: September 3, 2013

2013 TEAM Kick and Punt Return Projections

Last update: September 1, 2013