As fantasy football evolves, many participants look to spice up their league and make it more challenging. An increasingly common method is to incorporate return yardage, either for individual players or as a Team Return position. When a player like running back David Wilson accumulates over 1500 return yards in a single season, even a modest scoring system can provide a significant boost to a player’s ranking. Incorporating projections for return yards into decision making can provide a fantasy owner with a distinct advantage over the competition.
The following punt and kickoff return projections are an ongoing collaboration with Adam Harstad to review and project each NFL team's unique situation. The number of returns expected is first projected by team and then distributed amongst the club's likely returners. In situations where a primary return job is undecided, that distribution is built upon the odds we give each player of becoming the primary returner and of the amount of the split we believe he will get if it is a shared duty.
To project actual return yards, the player's past yards per return are then incorporated. These averages are first regressed towards the league average an amount appropriate for the predictive quality such past averages generally hold. The final return yards are then used to project the likelihood of a touchdown being scored by incorporating tiered historical averages that factor in individual returner quality.
These projections are incorporated for individual players in Draft Dominator as well as the Magazine Draft Kit and Draft GM apps for mobile devices. Each app's scoring setup contains a spot you can enter your return yardage scoring, after which the player's fantasy points will automatically include points from return yards and touchdowns.
RECENT MAJOR Updates
The Rams have a new depth chart that shows Tavon Austin as the primary punt returner with Austin Pettis as his backup. On kickoffs, Benny Cunningham is the kick returner with Tavon Austin as the backup.
The Packers depth chart shows Jeremy Ross as both the punt and kick returner. We still believe Cobb will get some returns, but it is a definite downgrade.
Fozzy Whittaker is replacing Richard Goodman in San Diego on kickoff returns.
Emmanuel Sanders was dropped from the Steelers kick return depth chart, with LaRod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones set to replace him.
Quintin Demps and Knile Davis are likely taking over kick returns in Kansas City.
De'Andre Presley was cut by Miami. The team signed Bryan McCann who will like be the backup for both types of returns.
Leon Washington was released by the Patriots. It is not clear yet who will handle kickoffs, though Josh Boyce and LeGarrette Blount might get the job based on preseason. Julian Edelman could also see returns there.
The Jaguars released Jordan Shipley. Ace Sanders takes over at punt returner with Will Blackmon his backup.
The Chiefs released Devon Wylie. Knile Davis is a good bet to be the backup at both kick and punt returner.
Tiquan Underwood was released by Tampa Bay, as was Jordan Norwood who had just recently been signed.
Kerwynn Williams was waived by the Colts.
Marc Mariani of the Titans was placed on Injured Reserve, which should give the bulk of the return duties to Darius Reynaud. It is not yet clear who the backup will be, though Michael Preston is one possibility.
Brad Smith of the Bills was placed on Injured Reserve with a rib injury. Marquise Goodwin and T.J. Graham will likely split the return duties. Leodis McKelvin is always a possibility, though might just be kept on punt returns.
The Ravens released Tandon Doss and Bobby Rainey, which leaves Asa Jackson as the backup punt returner. Jackson has an eight game suspension for Adderall use, leaving Jacoby Jones even more of the punt returns.
Chris Thompson of the Redskins had a 69-yard punt return touchdown in the team's final game as he competes for the punt return job that was left vacant by the season-ending injury to Richard Crawford.
Giants running back Andre Brown breaking his leg may cut into or even eliminate kick returns for David Wilson. The team was already speaking of picking and choosing when to use Wilson in the return game. Now that Wilson's work load as the primary running back should increase, the team may be even more reluctant to subject him to the extra injury risk
LaMichael James has a sprained MCL that will keep him out a few weeks. Kyle Williams is likely to fill in on punt returns, while Quinton Patton may see more kick returns until James returns.
The Bucaneers signed Jordan Norwood and audtioned him in the return game.
Joe Adams was waived by the Panthers.
Receiver Jermaine Kearse has been moved to the top of the Seahawks depth chart at kick returner. William Blackmon was released.
Joe McKnight was released by the Jets. Clyde Gates and Kyle Wilson are likely to take over the kick return duties.
Michael Smith was placed on Injured Reserve by Tampa Bay. Branden Smith is likely to take over in his place.
Josh Cribbs is not showing the burst he used to have and has been released.
The Redskins lost Richard Crawford for the season with a torn LCL. Rookie Chris Thompson took over for him in the game, though it remains to be seen whether the regular season job will fall to Thompson, Santana Moss, or some other rookie like Nick Williams or Skye Dawson.
2013 PLAYER Kick and Punt Return Projections
These are also available in the offensive stat projections under the position "Ret".
Last update: September 3, 2013
|Team||Player ID||Player||KR yards||KR TDs||PR yards||PR TDs|
|Arizona Cardinals||ArenJa99||Javier Arenas||515||0.13||88||0.11|
|Arizona Cardinals||ElliAn00||Andre Ellington||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Arizona Cardinals||MathTy99||Tyrann Mathieu||0||0.00||135||0.17|
|Arizona Cardinals||PetePa99||Patrick Peterson||0||0.00||215||0.54|
|Arizona Cardinals||SmitAl01||Alfonso Smith||230||0.06||0||0.00|
|Arizona Cardinals||TaylSt00||Stepfan Taylor||138||0.03||0||0.00|
|Atlanta Falcons||AlfoRo99||Robert Alford||103||0.03||72||0.09|
|Atlanta Falcons||DougHa00||Harry Douglas||0||0.00||137||0.17|
|Atlanta Falcons||FranDo99||Dominique Franks||68||0.02||66||0.08|
|Atlanta Falcons||RodgJa00||Jacquizz Rodgers||536||0.13||0||0.00|
|Baltimore Ravens||JackAs99||Asa Jackson||0||0.00||39||0.05|
|Baltimore Ravens||JoneJa03||Jacoby Jones||928||0.47||354||0.44|
|Baltimore Ravens||ThomDe03||Deonte Thompson||417||0.10||0||0.00|
|Buffalo Bills||GoodMa00||Marquise Goodwin||467||0.12||0||0.00|
|Buffalo Bills||GrahTJ00||T.J. Graham||467||0.12||25||0.03|
|Buffalo Bills||McKeLe99||Leodis McKelvin||114||0.06||339||0.85|
|Buffalo Bills||WoodRo01||Robert Woods||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Carolina Panthers||BarnKe00||Kenjon Barner||194||0.05||0||0.00|
|Carolina Panthers||EdwaAr00||Armanti Edwards||0||0.00||60||0.08|
|Carolina Panthers||GinnTe00||Ted Ginn||677||0.17||240||0.60|
|Carolina Panthers||SmitAr00||Armond Smith||93||0.02||0||0.00|
|Chicago Bears||BennEa00||Earl Bennett||0||0.00||37||0.05|
|Chicago Bears||HestDe00||Devin Hester||745||0.37||319||0.80|
|Chicago Bears||WeemEr01||Eric Weems||267||0.07||0||0.00|
|Cincinnati Bengals||BernGi00||Giovani Bernard||97||0.02||83||0.10|
|Cincinnati Bengals||HawkAn00||Andrew Hawkins||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Cincinnati Bengals||JoneAd99||Adam Jones||145||0.04||283||0.71|
|Cincinnati Bengals||TateBr00||Brandon Tate||744||0.19||82||0.10|
|Cleveland Browns||BadeJo99||Johnson Bademosi||694||0.17||0||0.00|
|Cleveland Browns||BenjTr00||Travis Benjamin||347||0.09||230||0.29|
|Cleveland Browns||BessDa00||Davone Bess||0||0.00||99||0.12|
|Cleveland Browns||LewiDi00||Dion Lewis||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Cleveland Browns||SkriBu99||Buster Skrine||116||0.03||0||0.00|
|Dallas Cowboys||BeasCo00||Cole Beasley||0||0.00||68||0.09|
|Dallas Cowboys||DunbLa00||Lance Dunbar||286||0.07||0||0.00|
|Dallas Cowboys||HarrDw00||Dwayne Harris||500||0.13||374||0.47|
|Denver Broncos||BoldOm99||Omar Bolden||73||0.02||0||0.00|
|Denver Broncos||DeckEr00||Eric Decker||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Denver Broncos||HollTr00||Trindon Holliday||763||0.38||349||0.88|
|Denver Broncos||WelkWe00||Wes Welker||0||0.00||86||0.11|
|Detroit Lions||BellJo01||Joique Bell||87||0.02||0||0.00|
|Detroit Lions||BroyRy00||Ryan Broyles||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Detroit Lions||BushRe00||Reggie Bush||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Detroit Lions||EdwaPa00||Patrick Edwards||306||0.08||150||0.19|
|Detroit Lions||SlayDa99||Darius Slay||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Detroit Lions||SpurMi00||Michael Spurlock||480||0.12||184||0.23|
|Green Bay Packers||CobbRa00||Randall Cobb||206||0.05||105||0.13|
|Green Bay Packers||FranJo01||Johnathan Franklin||99||0.02||0||0.00|
|Green Bay Packers||HydeMi99||Micah Hyde||0||0.00||69||0.09|
|Green Bay Packers||RossJe01||Jeremy Ross||694||0.17||174||0.22|
|Houston Texans||KeoxSh99||Shiloh Keo||109||0.03||70||0.09|
|Houston Texans||MannDa99||Danieal Manning||54||0.01||0||0.00|
|Houston Texans||MartKe01||Keshawn Martin||929||0.23||322||0.41|
|Indianapolis Colts||BrazLa00||LaVon Brazill||48||0.01||48||0.06|
|Indianapolis Colts||HiltTY00||T.Y. Hilton||0||0.00||308||0.39|
|Indianapolis Colts||ReedDa00||David Reed||726||0.18||0||0.00|
|Indianapolis Colts||VaugCa99||Cassius Vaughn||182||0.05||0||0.00|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||BlacWi99||William Blackmon||0||0.00||57||0.07|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||RobiDe00||Denard Robinson||491||0.12||0||0.00|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||SandAc00||Ace Sanders||0||0.00||227||0.28|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||ShorCe00||Cecil Shorts||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||TodmJo00||Jordan Todman||736||0.19||0||0.00|
|Kansas City Chiefs||DaviKn00||Knile Davis||531||0.13||55||0.07|
|Kansas City Chiefs||DempQu99||Quintin Demps||531||0.13||0||0.00|
|Kansas City Chiefs||McClDe00||Dexter McCluster||0||0.00||313||0.39|
|Miami Dolphins||McCaBr98||Bryan McCann||184||0.05||31||0.04|
|Miami Dolphins||PresDe98||De\'Andre Presley||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Miami Dolphins||ThigMa00||Marcus Thigpen||796||0.20||320||0.40|
|Minnesota Vikings||PattCo00||Cordarrelle Patterson||694||0.17||0||0.00|
|Minnesota Vikings||RobiJo99||Josh Robinson||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Minnesota Vikings||SherMa99||Marcus Sherels||315||0.08||275||0.35|
|Minnesota Vikings||WrigJa02||Jarius Wright||0||0.00||69||0.09|
|New England Patriots||BlouLe00||LeGarrette Blount||387||0.10||38||0.05|
|New England Patriots||BoycJo00||Josh Boyce||387||0.10||38||0.05|
|New England Patriots||EdelJu00||Julian Edelman||194||0.05||403||0.51|
|New England Patriots||McCoDe99||Devin McCourty||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|New Orleans Saints||CadeTr00||Travaris Cadet||361||0.09||13||0.02|
|New Orleans Saints||MoorLa00||Lance Moore||0||0.00||13||0.02|
|New Orleans Saints||SproDa00||Darren Sproles||726||0.18||220||0.28|
|New Orleans Saints||ThomPi00||Pierre Thomas||100||0.03||0||0.00|
|New York Giants||CoxxMi01||Michael Cox||264||0.07||0||0.00|
|New York Giants||HoslJa99||Jayron Hosley||0||0.00||60||0.08|
|New York Giants||JernJe00||Jerrel Jernigan||463||0.12||73||0.09|
|New York Giants||RandRu00||Reuben Randle||0||0.00||97||0.12|
|New York Giants||RossAa99||Aaron Ross||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|New York Giants||ScotDa01||Da\'Rel Scott||330||0.08||0||0.00|
|New York Giants||WilsDa01||David Wilson||283||0.14||12||0.02|
|New York Jets||GateEd00||Clyde Gates||817||0.21||0||0.00|
|New York Jets||KerlJe00||Jeremy Kerley||0||0.00||219||0.28|
|New York Jets||WilsKy99||Kyle Wilson||491||0.12||67||0.08|
|Oakland Raiders||AdamPh99||Phillip Adams||0||0.00||213||0.27|
|Oakland Raiders||FordJa01||Jacoby Ford||519||0.13||91||0.11|
|Oakland Raiders||JenkMi99||Mike Jenkins||312||0.08||0||0.00|
|Oakland Raiders||JoneTa00||Taiwan Jones||208||0.05||0||0.00|
|Philadelphia Eagles||BoykBr99||Brandon Boykin||303||0.08||27||0.03|
|Philadelphia Eagles||BrowBr00||Bryce Brown||168||0.04||0||0.00|
|Philadelphia Eagles||JackDe00||Desean Jackson||0||0.00||146||0.37|
|Philadelphia Eagles||JohnDa06||Damaris Johnson||736||0.19||103||0.13|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||BrowAn04||Antonio Brown||0||0.00||276||0.35|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||DunnRe01||Reggie Dunn||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||JoneFe00||Felix Jones||424||0.11||0||0.00|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||SandEm00||Emmanual Sanders||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||StepLa00||LaRod Stephens-Howling||650||0.16||0||0.00|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||WheaMa00||Markus Wheaton||0||0.00||79||0.10|
|San Diego Chargers||AlleKe00||Keenan Allen||0||0.00||94||0.12|
|San Diego Chargers||GoodRi00||Richard Goodman||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|San Diego Chargers||RoyaEd00||Eddie Royal||368||0.09||174||0.22|
|San Diego Chargers||WhitFo00||Fozzy Whittaker||552||0.14||0||0.00|
|San Francisco 49ers||JameLa00||LaMichael James||769||0.19||201||0.25|
|San Francisco 49ers||PattQu00||Quinton Patton||227||0.06||0||0.00|
|San Francisco 49ers||WillKy00||Kyle Williams||244||0.06||134||0.17|
|Seattle Seahawks||HarvPe00||Percy Harvin||61||0.03||0||0.00|
|Seattle Seahawks||KearJe01||Jermaine Kearse||581||0.15||0||0.00|
|Seattle Seahawks||LaneJe99||Jeremy Lane||242||0.06||0||0.00|
|Seattle Seahawks||TateGo00||Golden Tate||0||0.00||248||0.31|
|Seattle Seahawks||ThurWa99||Walter Thurmond||0||0.00||82||0.10|
|Seattle Seahawks||WaltBr00||Bryan Walters||97||0.02||41||0.05|
|St. Louis Rams||AustTa00||Tavon Austin||368||0.09||290||0.36|
|St. Louis Rams||CunnBe01||Benny Cunningham||552||0.14||0||0.00|
|St. Louis Rams||GiveCh00||Chris Givens||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|St. Louis Rams||PeadIs00||Isaiah Pead||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|St. Louis Rams||PettAu00||Austin Pettis||0||0.00||64||0.08|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||JameMi00||Mike James||195||0.05||32||0.04|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||PageEr00||Eric Page||584||0.15||290||0.36|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||SmitBr94||Branden Smith||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Tennessee Titans||PresMi00||Michael Preston||241||0.06||60||0.08|
|Tennessee Titans||ReynDa00||Darius Reynaud||959||0.24||293||0.37|
|Washington Redskins||HallDe99||DeAngelo Hall||0||0.00||0||0.00|
|Washington Redskins||MossSa00||Santana Moss||0||0.00||169||0.21|
|Washington Redskins||PaulNi00||Niles Paul||531||0.13||0||0.00|
|Washington Redskins||RobiAl00||Aldrick Robinson||184||0.05||0||0.00|
|Washington Redskins||ThomCh01||Chris Thompson||184||0.05||169||0.21|
2013 TEAM Kick and Punt Return Projections
Last update: September 1, 2013
|Team||KR yards||KR TDs||PR yards||PR TDs|
|Green Bay Packers||1010||0.25||349||0.44|
|Kansas City Chiefs||1062||0.27||368||0.46|
|New England Patriots||968||0.24||478||0.60|
|New Orleans Saints||1187||0.30||246||0.31|
|New York Giants||1340||0.41||242||0.30|
|New York Jets||1308||0.33||286||0.36|
|San Diego Chargers||967||0.24||268||0.34|
|San Francisco 49ers||1239||0.31||334||0.42|
|St. Louis Rams||903||0.23||341||0.43|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||779||0.20||322||0.41|
More from Greg Russell:
Fantasy Significant Returners and Your Draft - August 23
Returner Recap and Latest News - January 28
Returner Recap and Latest News - January 14
Returner Recap and Latest News - January 7
Returner Recap and Latest News - December 31
Returner Recap and Latest News - December 26
Returner Recap and Latest News - December 17
Returner Recap and Latest News - December 11
Returner Recap and Latest News - December 4
Returner Recap and Latest News - November 27