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Projections for Kick and Punt Returners

Detailed projections for individual kick and punt returners

As fantasy football evolves, many participants look to spice up their league and make it more challenging. An increasingly common method is to incorporate return yardage, either for individual players or as a Team Return position. When a player like running back David Wilson accumulates over 1500 return yards in a single season, even a modest scoring system can provide a significant boost to a player’s ranking. Incorporating projections for return yards into decision making can provide a fantasy owner with a distinct advantage over the competition.

The following punt and kickoff return projections are an ongoing collaboration with Adam Harstad to review and project each NFL team's unique situation. The number of returns expected is first projected by team and then distributed amongst the club's likely returners. In situations where a primary return job is undecided, that distribution is built upon the odds we give each player of becoming the primary returner and of the amount of the split we believe he will get if it is a shared duty.

To project actual return yards, the player's past yards per return are then incorporated. These averages are first regressed towards the league average an amount appropriate for the predictive quality such past averages generally hold. The final return yards are then used to project the likelihood of a touchdown being scored by incorporating tiered historical averages that factor in individual returner quality.

These projections are incorporated for individual players in Draft Dominator as well as the Magazine Draft Kit and Draft GM apps for mobile devices.  Each app's scoring setup contains a spot you can enter your return yardage scoring, after which the player's fantasy points will automatically include points from return yards and touchdowns.

RECENT MAJOR Updates

The Rams have a new depth chart that shows Tavon Austin as the primary punt returner with Austin Pettis as his backup. On kickoffs, Benny Cunningham is the kick returner with Tavon Austin as the backup.

The Packers depth chart shows Jeremy Ross as both the punt and kick returner. We still believe Cobb will get some returns, but it is a definite downgrade.

Fozzy Whittaker is replacing Richard Goodman in San Diego on kickoff returns.

Emmanuel Sanders was dropped from the Steelers kick return depth chart, with LaRod Stephens-Howling and Felix Jones set to replace him.

Quintin Demps and Knile Davis are likely taking over kick returns in Kansas City.

De'Andre Presley was cut by Miami. The team signed Bryan McCann who will like be the backup for both types of returns.

Leon Washington was released by the Patriots. It is not clear yet who will handle kickoffs, though Josh Boyce and LeGarrette Blount might get the job based on preseason. Julian Edelman could also see returns there.

The Jaguars released Jordan Shipley. Ace Sanders takes over at punt returner with Will Blackmon his backup.

The Chiefs released Devon Wylie. Knile Davis is a good bet to be the backup at both kick and punt returner.

Tiquan Underwood was released by Tampa Bay, as was Jordan Norwood who had just recently been signed.

Kerwynn Williams was waived by the Colts.

Marc Mariani of the Titans was placed on Injured Reserve, which should give the bulk of the return duties to Darius Reynaud. It is not yet clear who the backup will be, though Michael Preston is one possibility.

Brad Smith of the Bills was placed on Injured Reserve with a rib injury. Marquise Goodwin and T.J. Graham will likely split the return duties. Leodis McKelvin is always a possibility, though might just be kept on punt returns.

The Ravens released Tandon Doss and Bobby Rainey, which leaves Asa Jackson as the backup punt returner. Jackson has an eight game suspension for Adderall use, leaving Jacoby Jones even more of the punt returns.

Chris Thompson of the Redskins had a 69-yard punt return touchdown in the team's final game as he competes for the punt return job that was left vacant by the season-ending injury to Richard Crawford.

Giants running back Andre Brown breaking his leg may cut into or even eliminate kick returns for David Wilson. The team was already speaking of picking and choosing when to use Wilson in the return game. Now that Wilson's work load as the primary running back should increase, the team may be even more reluctant to subject him to the extra injury risk

LaMichael James has a sprained MCL that will keep him out a few weeks. Kyle Williams is likely to fill in on punt returns, while Quinton Patton may see more kick returns until James returns.

The Bucaneers signed Jordan Norwood and audtioned him in the return game.

Joe Adams was waived by the Panthers.

Receiver Jermaine Kearse has been moved to the top of the Seahawks depth chart at kick returner. William Blackmon was released.

Joe McKnight was released by the Jets. Clyde Gates and Kyle Wilson are likely to take over the kick return duties.

Michael Smith was placed on Injured Reserve by Tampa Bay. Branden Smith is likely to take over in his place.

Josh Cribbs is not showing the burst he used to have and has been released.

The Redskins lost Richard Crawford for the season with a torn LCL. Rookie Chris Thompson took over for him in the game, though it remains to be seen whether the regular season job will fall to Thompson, Santana Moss, or some other rookie like Nick Williams or Skye Dawson.

 

2013 PLAYER Kick and Punt Return Projections

These are also available in the offensive stat projections under the position "Ret". 

Last update: September 3, 2013

TeamPlayer IDPlayerKR yardsKR TDsPR yardsPR TDs
Arizona Cardinals ArenJa99 Javier Arenas 515 0.13 88 0.11
Arizona Cardinals ElliAn00 Andre Ellington 0 0.00 0 0.00
Arizona Cardinals MathTy99 Tyrann Mathieu 0 0.00 135 0.17
Arizona Cardinals PetePa99 Patrick Peterson 0 0.00 215 0.54
Arizona Cardinals SmitAl01 Alfonso Smith 230 0.06 0 0.00
Arizona Cardinals TaylSt00 Stepfan Taylor 138 0.03 0 0.00
Atlanta Falcons AlfoRo99 Robert Alford 103 0.03 72 0.09
Atlanta Falcons DougHa00 Harry Douglas 0 0.00 137 0.17
Atlanta Falcons FranDo99 Dominique Franks 68 0.02 66 0.08
Atlanta Falcons RodgJa00 Jacquizz Rodgers 536 0.13 0 0.00
Baltimore Ravens JackAs99 Asa Jackson 0 0.00 39 0.05
Baltimore Ravens JoneJa03 Jacoby Jones 928 0.47 354 0.44
Baltimore Ravens ThomDe03 Deonte Thompson 417 0.10 0 0.00
Buffalo Bills GoodMa00 Marquise Goodwin 467 0.12 0 0.00
Buffalo Bills GrahTJ00 T.J. Graham 467 0.12 25 0.03
Buffalo Bills McKeLe99 Leodis McKelvin 114 0.06 339 0.85
Buffalo Bills WoodRo01 Robert Woods 0 0.00 0 0.00
Carolina Panthers BarnKe00 Kenjon Barner 194 0.05 0 0.00
Carolina Panthers EdwaAr00 Armanti Edwards 0 0.00 60 0.08
Carolina Panthers GinnTe00 Ted Ginn 677 0.17 240 0.60
Carolina Panthers SmitAr00 Armond Smith 93 0.02 0 0.00
Chicago Bears BennEa00 Earl Bennett 0 0.00 37 0.05
Chicago Bears HestDe00 Devin Hester 745 0.37 319 0.80
Chicago Bears WeemEr01 Eric Weems 267 0.07 0 0.00
Cincinnati Bengals BernGi00 Giovani Bernard 97 0.02 83 0.10
Cincinnati Bengals HawkAn00 Andrew Hawkins 0 0.00 0 0.00
Cincinnati Bengals JoneAd99 Adam Jones 145 0.04 283 0.71
Cincinnati Bengals TateBr00 Brandon Tate 744 0.19 82 0.10
Cleveland Browns BadeJo99 Johnson Bademosi 694 0.17 0 0.00
Cleveland Browns BenjTr00 Travis Benjamin 347 0.09 230 0.29
Cleveland Browns BessDa00 Davone Bess 0 0.00 99 0.12
Cleveland Browns LewiDi00 Dion Lewis 0 0.00 0 0.00
Cleveland Browns SkriBu99 Buster Skrine 116 0.03 0 0.00
Dallas Cowboys BeasCo00 Cole Beasley 0 0.00 68 0.09
Dallas Cowboys DunbLa00 Lance Dunbar 286 0.07 0 0.00
Dallas Cowboys HarrDw00 Dwayne Harris 500 0.13 374 0.47
Denver Broncos BoldOm99 Omar Bolden 73 0.02 0 0.00
Denver Broncos DeckEr00 Eric Decker 0 0.00 0 0.00
Denver Broncos HollTr00 Trindon Holliday 763 0.38 349 0.88
Denver Broncos WelkWe00 Wes Welker 0 0.00 86 0.11
Detroit Lions BellJo01 Joique Bell 87 0.02 0 0.00
Detroit Lions BroyRy00 Ryan Broyles 0 0.00 0 0.00
Detroit Lions BushRe00 Reggie Bush 0 0.00 0 0.00
Detroit Lions EdwaPa00 Patrick Edwards 306 0.08 150 0.19
Detroit Lions SlayDa99 Darius Slay 0 0.00 0 0.00
Detroit Lions SpurMi00 Michael Spurlock 480 0.12 184 0.23
Green Bay Packers CobbRa00 Randall Cobb 206 0.05 105 0.13
Green Bay Packers FranJo01 Johnathan Franklin 99 0.02 0 0.00
Green Bay Packers HydeMi99 Micah Hyde 0 0.00 69 0.09
Green Bay Packers RossJe01 Jeremy Ross 694 0.17 174 0.22
Houston Texans KeoxSh99 Shiloh Keo 109 0.03 70 0.09
Houston Texans MannDa99 Danieal Manning 54 0.01 0 0.00
Houston Texans MartKe01 Keshawn Martin 929 0.23 322 0.41
Indianapolis Colts BrazLa00 LaVon Brazill 48 0.01 48 0.06
Indianapolis Colts HiltTY00 T.Y. Hilton 0 0.00 308 0.39
Indianapolis Colts ReedDa00 David Reed 726 0.18 0 0.00
Indianapolis Colts VaugCa99 Cassius Vaughn 182 0.05 0 0.00
Jacksonville Jaguars BlacWi99 William Blackmon 0 0.00 57 0.07
Jacksonville Jaguars RobiDe00 Denard Robinson 491 0.12 0 0.00
Jacksonville Jaguars SandAc00 Ace Sanders 0 0.00 227 0.28
Jacksonville Jaguars ShorCe00 Cecil Shorts 0 0.00 0 0.00
Jacksonville Jaguars TodmJo00 Jordan Todman 736 0.19 0 0.00
Kansas City Chiefs DaviKn00 Knile Davis 531 0.13 55 0.07
Kansas City Chiefs DempQu99 Quintin Demps 531 0.13 0 0.00
Kansas City Chiefs McClDe00 Dexter McCluster 0 0.00 313 0.39
Miami Dolphins McCaBr98 Bryan McCann 184 0.05 31 0.04
Miami Dolphins PresDe98 De\'Andre Presley 0 0.00 0 0.00
Miami Dolphins ThigMa00 Marcus Thigpen 796 0.20 320 0.40
Minnesota Vikings PattCo00 Cordarrelle Patterson 694 0.17 0 0.00
Minnesota Vikings RobiJo99 Josh Robinson 0 0.00 0 0.00
Minnesota Vikings SherMa99 Marcus Sherels 315 0.08 275 0.35
Minnesota Vikings WrigJa02 Jarius Wright 0 0.00 69 0.09
New England Patriots BlouLe00 LeGarrette Blount 387 0.10 38 0.05
New England Patriots BoycJo00 Josh Boyce 387 0.10 38 0.05
New England Patriots EdelJu00 Julian Edelman 194 0.05 403 0.51
New England Patriots McCoDe99 Devin McCourty 0 0.00 0 0.00
New Orleans Saints CadeTr00 Travaris Cadet 361 0.09 13 0.02
New Orleans Saints MoorLa00 Lance Moore 0 0.00 13 0.02
New Orleans Saints SproDa00 Darren Sproles 726 0.18 220 0.28
New Orleans Saints ThomPi00 Pierre Thomas 100 0.03 0 0.00
New York Giants CoxxMi01 Michael Cox 264 0.07 0 0.00
New York Giants HoslJa99 Jayron Hosley 0 0.00 60 0.08
New York Giants JernJe00 Jerrel Jernigan 463 0.12 73 0.09
New York Giants RandRu00 Reuben Randle 0 0.00 97 0.12
New York Giants RossAa99 Aaron Ross 0 0.00 0 0.00
New York Giants ScotDa01 Da\'Rel Scott 330 0.08 0 0.00
New York Giants WilsDa01 David Wilson 283 0.14 12 0.02
New York Jets GateEd00 Clyde Gates 817 0.21 0 0.00
New York Jets KerlJe00 Jeremy Kerley 0 0.00 219 0.28
New York Jets WilsKy99 Kyle Wilson 491 0.12 67 0.08
Oakland Raiders AdamPh99 Phillip Adams 0 0.00 213 0.27
Oakland Raiders FordJa01 Jacoby Ford 519 0.13 91 0.11
Oakland Raiders JenkMi99 Mike Jenkins 312 0.08 0 0.00
Oakland Raiders JoneTa00 Taiwan Jones 208 0.05 0 0.00
Philadelphia Eagles BoykBr99 Brandon Boykin 303 0.08 27 0.03
Philadelphia Eagles BrowBr00 Bryce Brown 168 0.04 0 0.00
Philadelphia Eagles JackDe00 Desean Jackson 0 0.00 146 0.37
Philadelphia Eagles JohnDa06 Damaris Johnson 736 0.19 103 0.13
Pittsburgh Steelers BrowAn04 Antonio Brown 0 0.00 276 0.35
Pittsburgh Steelers DunnRe01 Reggie Dunn 0 0.00 0 0.00
Pittsburgh Steelers JoneFe00 Felix Jones 424 0.11 0 0.00
Pittsburgh Steelers SandEm00 Emmanual Sanders 0 0.00 0 0.00
Pittsburgh Steelers StepLa00 LaRod Stephens-Howling 650 0.16 0 0.00
Pittsburgh Steelers WheaMa00 Markus Wheaton 0 0.00 79 0.10
San Diego Chargers AlleKe00 Keenan Allen 0 0.00 94 0.12
San Diego Chargers GoodRi00 Richard Goodman 0 0.00 0 0.00
San Diego Chargers RoyaEd00 Eddie Royal 368 0.09 174 0.22
San Diego Chargers WhitFo00 Fozzy Whittaker 552 0.14 0 0.00
San Francisco 49ers JameLa00 LaMichael James 769 0.19 201 0.25
San Francisco 49ers PattQu00 Quinton Patton 227 0.06 0 0.00
San Francisco 49ers WillKy00 Kyle Williams 244 0.06 134 0.17
Seattle Seahawks HarvPe00 Percy Harvin 61 0.03 0 0.00
Seattle Seahawks KearJe01 Jermaine Kearse 581 0.15 0 0.00
Seattle Seahawks LaneJe99 Jeremy Lane 242 0.06 0 0.00
Seattle Seahawks TateGo00 Golden Tate 0 0.00 248 0.31
Seattle Seahawks ThurWa99 Walter Thurmond 0 0.00 82 0.10
Seattle Seahawks WaltBr00 Bryan Walters 97 0.02 41 0.05
St. Louis Rams AustTa00 Tavon Austin 368 0.09 290 0.36
St. Louis Rams CunnBe01 Benny Cunningham 552 0.14 0 0.00
St. Louis Rams GiveCh00 Chris Givens 0 0.00 0 0.00
St. Louis Rams PeadIs00 Isaiah Pead 0 0.00 0 0.00
St. Louis Rams PettAu00 Austin Pettis 0 0.00 64 0.08
Tampa Bay Buccaneers JameMi00 Mike James 195 0.05 32 0.04
Tampa Bay Buccaneers PageEr00 Eric Page 584 0.15 290 0.36
Tampa Bay Buccaneers SmitBr94 Branden Smith 0 0.00 0 0.00
Tennessee Titans PresMi00 Michael Preston 241 0.06 60 0.08
Tennessee Titans ReynDa00 Darius Reynaud 959 0.24 293 0.37
Washington Redskins HallDe99 DeAngelo Hall 0 0.00 0 0.00
Washington Redskins MossSa00 Santana Moss 0 0.00 169 0.21
Washington Redskins PaulNi00 Niles Paul 531 0.13 0 0.00
Washington Redskins RobiAl00 Aldrick Robinson 184 0.05 0 0.00
Washington Redskins ThomCh01 Chris Thompson 184 0.05 169 0.21

2013 TEAM Kick and Punt Return Projections

Last update: September 1, 2013

TeamKR yardsKR TDsPR yardsPR TDs
Arizona Cardinals 883 0.22 438 0.82
Atlanta Falcons 707 0.18 276 0.35
Baltimore Ravens 1344 0.57 393 0.49
Buffalo Bills 1049 0.29 364 0.88
Carolina Panthers 964 0.24 300 0.68
Chicago Bears 1012 0.44 356 0.85
Cincinnati Bengals 986 0.25 449 0.92
Cleveland Browns 1156 0.29 328 0.41
Dallas Cowboys 786 0.20 443 0.56
Denver Broncos 836 0.40 435 0.99
Detroit Lions 873 0.22 334 0.42
Green Bay Packers 1010 0.25 349 0.44
Houston Texans 1091 0.27 392 0.49
Indianapolis Colts 957 0.24 356 0.45
Jacksonville Jaguars 1227 0.31 283 0.36
Kansas City Chiefs 1062 0.27 368 0.46
Miami Dolphins 980 0.25 350 0.44
Minnesota Vikings 1009 0.25 344 0.43
New England Patriots 968 0.24 478 0.60
New Orleans Saints 1187 0.30 246 0.31
New York Giants 1340 0.41 242 0.30
New York Jets 1308 0.33 286 0.36
Oakland Raiders 1038 0.26 305 0.38
Philadelphia Eagles 1207 0.30 276 0.53
Pittsburgh Steelers 1101 0.28 356 0.45
San Diego Chargers 967 0.24 268 0.34
San Francisco 49ers 1239 0.31 334 0.42
Seattle Seahawks 980 0.26 371 0.47
St. Louis Rams 903 0.23 341 0.43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 779 0.20 322 0.41
Tennessee Titans 1200 0.30 353 0.44
Washington Redskins 899 0.23 338 0.42

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