Latavius Murray is 25 years old.
He has been in the NFL for two seasons now, after being selected in the sixth round of the 2013 NFL draft. Although Murray has been around for a while, he has barely seen the field during his career to this point. As a rookie, he was placed on IR before the season even began. Missing all 16 games during his first season set him back entering his second season, because he couldn't prove himself to the coaching staff with live reps on Sundays. As such, Murray spent all of last season trying to force his way onto the field.
Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden were ahead of him on the pecking order entering the year. They remained in place for most of the season before Murray was eventually given opportunities. His breakout displays came in Weeks 11 and 12.
Against the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, Murray carried the ball eight times for 155 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 16 yards on three receptions against the Chargers. He didn't play the following week against the St. Louis Rams, before returning to the field in Week 14 to face the San Francisco 49ers. In that game, Murray got his first real taste of being a feature back. He carried the ball an incredible 23 times, while also adding two receptions. Those 25 touches accounted for just 85 total yards.
Murray bounced back with another big display against the Chiefs in Week 15, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and rushing for 59 yards. However, he finished the final two weeks of the season averaging 3.7 yards per carry in each game.
Because Murray's biggest game of the season came in primetime against the Chiefs, it was easy to overlook his other displays. Murray's final stat line for the season was 82 carries for 424 yards and two touchdowns with 17 receptions for 143 yards and no touchdowns. He had one fumble on the year. Murray's average per carry is very impressive, 5.2 for the season, however, to be a top fantasy back, he needs to prove that he can sustain something close to that on a greater workload.
When you break down his production from last season to look at individual displays, there reasons to be concerned. To get a greater grasp of what Murray offers entering this season, his skill set needs to be better understood. His average alone on so few carries shouldn't be blindly trusted.
Murray has plenty of straight-line speed. That isn't something that needs to be scrutinized any further. Straight-line speed is worthless if you can't match it with vision and footwork though. Against the Minnesota Vikings during the second preseason game of this season, Murray showed off his discipline to follow the design of his blocking scheme and be decisive in finding space.
The Vikings come out with eight defenders in the box. The Raiders have two tight ends tight to the formation, so Murray has seven blockers in front of him. To compensate for the defense's extra defender, the Raiders are going to run a counter play.
Counter plays aren't the most difficult of designs for a running back to execute, but they do require some initial patience and the understanding of how to set up blockers on both levels. When Murray has the ball placed in his chest by Derek Carr, the Raiders have already brought two blockers across the formation. Both the left guard and a tight end have crossed the center, leaving three defenders on the backside of the play who Murray won't have to be concerned with early on.
Murray needs to follow his pulling tight end to pressure the edge defender and make his decision off of what that defender does.
Reading the edge defender allows Murray to decide between attacking the inside shoulder of his pulling blocker or attack the space towards the sideline. He must read the actions of the defender and the position of his helmet. If the defender overplays the inside shoulder of his blocker, he should break outside. If he's further outside, he needs to plant his right foot and push back infield to exploit the space available.
Murray can't afford to hesitate and he can't rush his decision. If he does either, he offers the defense time to react and close off the space.
At the perfect time, Murray broke back infield and turned his eyes to the blocker on the second level. He must read that defender in the same way he did the edge defender. That linebacker overplays the outside, allowing his blocker to seal off the inside. Murray immediately accelerates past his back to gain nine yards on 2nd-and-5. He stopped his feet to try and slip past Xavier Rhodes' outside shoulder, the cornerback who was recovering in pursuit from the outside. It was the one mistake that Murray made on this play.
Instead of trying to break back to the outside, Murray should have remained aggressive and continued downfield for a greater gain.
Searching for the big gain at this point of the play isn't a real issue when compared to working behind the line of scrimmage. Not only has Murray already gained yardage, he is in space instead of setting up blocks. It's easier to still gain yardage after making a bad decision on the second level because you have more space to work in and the timing of the play doesn't have to be perfect.
Patience and vision is very important. Murray showed off both on this play as well as balance with his footwork to explode onto the second level. In the same game, Murray showed off his ability to be decisive while running at the goal line.
This looks like a simple touchdown run on a goal line play for Murray, but he did have to make a subtle cut to redirect through the small gap that appeared between the tackles. Had he hesitated instead of simply planting his foot and pushing upfield, that gap would have quickly closed and Murray wouldn't have come close to getting into the endzone.
Understanding when to be decisive and when to be patient is hugely important for any running back. Whether Murray can do it consistently is unclear, but he definitely has the ability to act out different types of running plays.
There are backs in the NFL who need to be technically sound on every single play to be effective. Because of his age and physical talent, Murray won't need to be technically sound on every single play to be effective. He combines size, power, fluidity, acceleration and speed with an aggressive running style so that he can take advantage of space that is given to him exceptionally fast.
On this play against the St. Louis Rams, the Raiders trap Aaron Donald upfield to create space in behind him. This immediately gives Murray a wide open running lane to the second level. He jumps through the hole instead of accelerating, which sets him up with a blocker in front of him. That blocker has an incoming defender, who Murray attempts to manipulate with a quick shimmy before planting his foot to accelerate upfield.
Many backs with Murray's speed would have looked to break towards the sideline at that point of the play.
Because Murray is such a big, powerful runner with the fluidty to adjust, he is more willing to be aggressive and attack contact. This means that he is more likely to get the yards that are available to him in front of him instead of searching for more on the outside. Behind the Raiders offensive line last season, these kind of situations couldn't be expected. However, with Gabe Jackson developing and newly acquired Rodney Hudson at center, the run blocking should be better this season.
Last year, the Raiders ran the ball 337 total times(though 31 of those came from quarterbacks). Murray is very unlikely to be a 300 carry back this year, but landing somewhere in the range of 220-250 should make him a very valuable fantasy option. His breakaway ability will make him more valuable in best ball than in regular leagues because he is less likely to be consistent from week to week based on what he has done throughout his career to this point.
Although he is late getting started, Murray is now entering his prime with little wear-and-tear on his body. He may never be Jamaal Charles or LeVeon Bell, but he can reignite the Raiders running game and offer fantasy owners a legitimate top 12 starter at the position.