There isn't a more interesting player in the NFL than Cordarrelle Patterson right now.
For fantasy owners, Patterson promised so much before the season begun and hinted at that promise during Week 1 of the Regular Season. Since then, he has mostly flopped on a weekly basis. Patterson doesn't have a 100 yard receiving game and has just one 100 yard rushing game, the game that took place in Week 1. His combined rushing and receiving yards in a game haven't crossed the 100 yard receiving mark since Week 1 either, while his season total of 25 receptions for 299 yards and one touchdown is underwhelming to say the least.
Patterson has seemingly fallen out of favor as a gadget option for the Vikings offense, instead conceding touches to Jarius Wright. He has been forced to act as a regular wide receiver, running routes down the field to create separation and catch passes within the structure of the offense. As I've previously examined in detail, Patterson's route running is awful. He doesn't show any of the aggressiveness and athleticism that can be seen when he has the ball in his hands. He is timid and slow, making it impossible for his quarterback to consistently find him.
In truth, there is very little about this situation that is any different to Tavon Austin or your typical developing wide receiver. What makes this interesting is Patterson's potential and his usage, because unlike Austin, he hasn't shown issues catching the ball.
It's a fluid situation that should continue to change as the season goes on. Patterson will either get better or worse as a route runner, while the offensive coaching staff will have to decide if they want to continue forcing a square peg into a round hole or if they want to manufacture touches for him outside of the design of their offense. Last week, Patterson had his best game since Week 1. He had a total of 96 yards on offense with 86 receiving and 10 rushing. More important than the quantity of yards is how those yards came about.
Did the coaching staff alter their approach? Did Patterson improve his route running? Or was this simply a case of an inevitable spike based on the quantity of snaps the player was playing?
One thing becomes clear without even looking at the tape of this game. The Vikings didn't completely alter their gameplan with Patterson and account for his skill set with plays that are atypical to their philosophy. That can be understood because Patterson only had one rushing attempt throughout the whole game. That one rushing attempt came at the end of the first quarter and went for 10 yards. Patterson didn't have another attempt that was negated by penalty and he was very impressive with that touch.
It's clear that the Vikings still don't want to feed him the football as a runner because he is the kind of player who should have at least four rushing attempts per game in an ideal situation. Therefore we're left with either Patterson being a better route runner or a random spike from being on the field so often.
For his first reception of the game, Patterson essentially took an extended handoff from the backfield. Against off coverage, he ran a short curl route over the middle of the field before turning with the ball downfield for a first down. Before catching the ball, Patterson did nothing of any difficulty. He simply needed to avoid falling over his own feet to be open because of his assigned route against the defense's coverage. His impressive play came with the ball in his hands, which is something we shouldn't be surprised by at this stage.
Patterson's next reception was essentially the same as he ran a slant route against off coverage on Second-and-13. He adjusted to a slightly high throw from his quarterback before absorbing a hit that brought him to the ground.
A theme was developing early in this game. Patterson had been targeted deep down the sideline by Bridgewater, but against tight coverage the receiver couldn't make a reception. His next catch again came against off coverage as the Buccaneers faked a blitz before dropping out. Because of that fake blitz however, Alterraun Verner's off coverage was more aggressive as he quickly advanced towards Patterson at the snap. Patterson showed speed and control as he ran his slant route infield and Verner was unable to react to him.
This is a minor thing, but it's the kind of speed and decisiveness that Patterson doesn't show regularly in his route running. The key is often that he is given a free release at the line of scrimmage by the defense.
Bridgewater tried to find Patterson down the sideline again, but the duo couldn't connect as the ball just went past Patterson's outsretched hand when he turned back for it. At the start of the fourth quarter, the duo finally connected on a pass down the field. As the above gif shows, Patterson makes an exceptionally good catch at the sideline, but the more notable part of the play is that he is still essentially covered by the defensive back. Patterson doesn't create separation, Bridgewater throws him open by putting the ball in a spot where only he can catch it.
Patterson deserves credit for catching the ball, but it goes down as another play where he failed to create separation against aggressive coverage.
For his next target, Patterson drew a pass interference penalty against Verner on a slant route. He got inside of Verner because Verner was late to react to his movement. Patterson's route in itself wasn't impressive as he was sluggish through a rounded break against off coverage. His size and Verner's poor play gave him the penalty flag.
He followed that play up with another short curl route against off coverage for a first down.
One of the more telling plays in this game came on a pass that Patterson didn't catch. On an out route when the defender had good initial position, Patterson seemingly gives up on his route from the start instead of running with urgency to try and aggressive create space. Patterson's slow process forces Bridgewater to hold the ball and he eventually throws the ball away because of the pressure arriving in the pocket. This is the kind of play we've seen too often from Patterson this season and it's the type of play that should be going away.
He appears to be so afraid to make a mistake that that in itself is becoming a mistake. Either that or he's simply being lazy.
This game didn't give us any more reasons to be encouraged about Patterson's future. He remains a poor route runner whose effort can be questioned unless he is simply being slowed down by the specifics of the playbook. It's impossible for anyone to know what the future holds for Patterson, he clearly has the talent with the ball in his hands to be a game-breaking receiver, but without enough signs of development in his second season it's still very difficult to bet on him becoming a valuable fantasy piece until he moves into an offense that wants to use him as a runner more.
It's also impossible for us to know what the Vikings motivation is with Patterson. A couple of possibilities are that they want him to focus on developing his routes for the long-term before using him on 'gadget' plays, they may prefer him as a blocker on those types of plays with Jarius Wright carrying the ball or they may simply not be willing to alter their offense for a player with that kind of ability. The stubborness of NFL coaches is something that has been well documented in the past.
Other Thoughts from the Tape
Oakland Raiders starting quarterback Derek Carr has been the most productive of all the rookies to start for a team this season. Carr has earned some plaudits from different analysts around the league, but I'm very skeptical about his long-term potential. A large reason for Carr's positive perspective is his play in light of his expectations. As an unheralded second round pick going to a bad team, Carr was never expected to succeed to any degree if he was immediately put in the starting lineup.
What Carr has done is perform adequately in an offense that is doing everything it can to mask him from difficult plays. He's not being asked to drop back into a collapsing pocket while reading coverages downfield. He isn't being forced to make anticipation throws into tight coverage and he's largely just a complementary piece in a scheme that is picking its spots to use him.
Throughout the season, Carr has been getting some incredible pass protection. He is regularly dropping back into oceans of space with time to establish himself, hesitate and re-establish himself before throwing the ball. This wouldn't be as much of an issue if he was taking advantage of this protection to pick apart the defense, but too often he is just throwing to a predetermined target.
Carr might continue to be somewhat productive in this scheme, but his long-term outlook is bleak because you can't expect the offense to mask him like this forever. At best, Carr is likely going to follow in the footsteps of Andy Dalton, but that would require the Raiders to completely turn around his supporting cast.
I'm not sure there is a good reason to think that Emmanuel Sanders is going to slow down with the Denver Broncos. Sanders has made a phenomenal start to the regular season with his new team. It's not as simple as playing with Peyton Manning has made him productive, he has been exceptionally impressive with everything that he has done. It's true that Manning can make players such as Austin Collie more productive than they should be, but that isn't the case with Sanders.
There may be some temptation to sell Sanders high ahead of this weekend because of his big day last Thursday night against the San Diego Chargers. I'd ignore that temptation for now. There will be more than enough passes to go around in Denver this year and quite frankly, Sanders has been their most impressive option.
The quarterback change in New York is only going to work if something dramatically changes on the Jets offense as a whole. Michael Vick has proven to be a limited player in the past and he was unimpressive in relief of Geno Smith last week. To turn Vick into a productive player, the Jets will need to get very creative with he, Percy Harvin and Chris Ivory.
Vick's value is as a runner rather than a passer. He may be an incredible runner, but in this situation it seems more likely that he throws 20 interceptions over the rest of the season rather than 20 touchdowns.
Brandon LaFell entered this season as an after-thought for most people who evaluated the New England Patriots roster. Bill Belichick did signal his intentions by giving the receiver a notable amount of guaranteed money, but expectations remained bleak with Aaron Dobson still on the roster. Dobson appears to be all but forgotten at this stage because LaFell has shown he can be effective in the Patriots system.
While it's never going to be easy to figure out who is the primary complement to Rob Gronkowski between LaFell and Edelman, Edelman shouldn't simply be considered the favorite because of his past production. LaFell is just as talented a player as Edelman when used properly.
Sammy Watkins and the Buffalo Bills are about to enter a bye week.
It's come at the worst possible time for the rookie receiver. Watkins is having a phenomenal season and he has produced in spite of his offense for the most part. Over the past two weeks, his production has spiked because Kyle Orton has proven capable of giving him opportunities to catch the ball down the field. Even if the Bills don't improve on Orton moving into the future, Watkins' production should continue to climb.
He is not the kind of receiver who needs high-quality quarterback play to produce, he just needs someone who can give him a chance. Orton can do that for the next season or two at the very least. It's probably not the best time to try and buy Watkins, but with his bye week coming it's worth sending out a feeler or two.
I'm not sure there is much of an argument to make against DeAndre Hopkins as the best wide receiver from the 2013 NFL draft class. Of course, it's still very early in each player's respective career, but Hopkins is the only player showing off a well-rounded game with the consistency to take advantage of the opportunities that come his way. His production is being hindered by Ryan Fitzpatrick right now, but for the long-term, he should be an adequate replacement for Andre Johnson.
That is one of the highest compliments that can be paid to a young receiver.
